Market view

Markets did a really nice and steady rally all day long on monday - but the rally really missed a lack of volume as the volume really sucked in such a big way + I think it was pure window dressings into month end.

Overall I've some some bearish divergences on the short term charts which also tells me that you should not trust this recent rally and I think this is the time to SELL and SHORT the rips we got.

So as I mentioned in weekends post I added a size position in TZA which is now at 43.4 average which means Im currently down under water.... as we drifted lower into close.

This position is a pure swing play as I think we are near a short term top - we might move a bit higher , but overall should be getting close to the short term top. Remember my call on SPX to touch 1220 ( we are around 10 points away from it - so if we get another rally my target is fullfilled from the SPX 1120 where I called for 1220.

What I found really really interesting with especially TZA were it closed right a a huge trendline I have been drawn from like 2 weeks ago when TZA hit 60+ - I were just plain stupid not waiting for this moment to buy it , as I did not believe we would rally this hard..... so my average size position is underwater from 43.4 let it be....

But when TZA ran from 37.5$ to 67 area , then we broke a huge downtrend resistance which is a trendline we are now BACKTESTING. TA wise this is VERY bullish as this trendline is acting as SUPPORT now cause it was resistance before. If this is true we should now consolidate around this level and not much down further in TZA ( which means not much up further... ) before we take off again to maybe new highs in TZA..... so get ready for some fun over the next weeks.

Again SPX might see 1220 , but I dont think we will reach higher and I think for swing traders this is an excellent opportunity to go short markets.

Remember I were BULLISH at SPX 1110-1120 when everyone were bearish , not people seems o be more bullish again which I love - so I'm starting to really get bearish especially after yesterdays move.


CONCLUSION: Long size position TZA 43.4 average and holding for a SWING play - I think we are close to a near term top and TZA potentially backtested a recent resistance which is support now to the penny.

Remember to join us at www.nwatrading.com we nailed PEIX with a 30% run in some days + got into SPY on friday dip at 114 perfect for this rally.

Again I'm pretty sad I sold my swing TNA on friday as I should just have held today , but no one can nail the top and bottoms everytime and I got a nice 10-15% gain in my TNA from 36-38 level to 42-43 , but for now long TZA and shorting this rips.


Have a nice day.