Happy New year ! 2012

Happy new year to everyone ! I will start to wish EVERYONE OUT THERE a happy new year and wish you best of luck in everything in 2012 !


About the markets we had a little dead cat bounce imo to trap some more shorts in,, the big decline should be coming still. However we did NOT confirm the bearish engulfing pattern on Wednesday ,, so we need a CLOSE BELOW yesterdays lows to confirm this pattern to the downside- so this would mean that markets should soon start to sell off hard.

We had a nice sell off on Wednesday ,, but this is nothing really especially when I'm looking for 1100 and below in January ,, so a bigger decline is about to come.

What would be great is the markets to go down on Friday to make the WEEKLY chart on SPY a bearish engulfing pattern too ,, which would confirm more downside next week.

Overall we are still near a major top ,, so still time to load up on shorts or puts imo as the bear market will return and we should see below 1075 lows in 2012 !

My October 2011 lows predictions came true which was maybe my best call this year ,, to go long 1080 on SPX near the lows and said a year end rally would come.

I'm in quite opposite direction now.... right now we have a LOT more optimism in markets than we had in early October where EVERYONE were short,, now people looking for 1500+ and stuff ,, which is the BEST INGREDIENT for a new hard sell off,, when people really dont think you get such a sell off. So if you are more bullish now than in early October ,, well THANK you - as this is the natural sentiment shift when markets moving higher ,, I'm going against the whole crowd and saying that we are about to see another major drop in markets below the October lows.



PREDICTIONS FOR 2012 !

My predictions for 2012 is that its going to be a WILD year ,, even WILDER than 2011 ,, up and down ,, huge moves so for a normal trader and investor ,, it should be horrible ,, but for swing traders like me it should be heaven,, as we try to trade all the up moves and down moves in markets. I believe that the 2nd half will be truly horrible in 2012 and the first half of 2012 will get better than second.

I think the real ugly of this bear market will start by mid 2012 and then it will be no mercy for bulls ,, markets would just continue to move down in months imo.

Gold and Silver should take out new highs in 2012 and I expect gold and silver to make a longer term bottom here soon.


Bottom line: I remain heavy short markets and long TVIX and TZA ,, you see its the day before new year,, they might try to hold markets up until then - but I expect the sell off to really start in January with possible some eurozone downgrades coming ,, who knows whats coming....

Market view

What a very nice reversal we got and start of a sell off yesterday !

Markets did not bounce a lot ,, but steady selling all the way into close with FXE(EURO) going down lower as expected. I believe eur/usd might be on the way to test 1.24-1.25 area.

Overall I think this was the "start" of the sell off which is going to happend - and I think we are resuming our bear market. The DOW JONES made new highs ,, but SPX and NDX did not - this is called a bearish divergence in the dow jones theory.

I got major sell signals in all indexes which means the trend has turned from UP to DOWN now -- so if we get any bounces from here,, they should be shortable as long SPX stays below 1265 area.

We might even bounce to near this area,, and then begin next sell off - but either way ,, I remain heavy short and long TVIX and TZA which is up with amazing profits both now.


So not much to say other than I remain heavy long TVIX and TZA and not selling a single share right here as I think much more downside ahead and a test of 1100 not out of question in January.

One thing which is very interesting is that SPY index and lots of other sectors made a "BEARISH ENGULFING" pattern which is usually one of the most bearish candlestick patterns out there. A RED close on Thursday will confirm this pattern - and then it could really get ugly if a red close today....

Major top possible in

I'm calling for a possible major top occuring at this moment as I see the highs from October lows 2011 where I called the bottom in markets ,, I think we are making the highs here - at least the dow jones is making a new high and is at highest level since October lows.

Dow jones is currently above 12.300 and were at 10.500 area early October.

We now have a bearish divergence in dow jones indexes DAILY chart which suggest we got a higher high , but the MACD decreased , which is not a bullish signal.

So again here we have a possible intermediate trend call - where I'm going to call this a top ,, I were pretty spot on with my 1st. call since 1200 that markets would see 1270+ ,, but so far got in a little too early ,, however VIX and TVIX has been holding steady and remains in profits,, only TZA underwater a little bit.

Either way ,, if we rally more I would short it heavy -- this is IMO the top and markets is rising in a major big bearish rising wedge ,, which should play out to the downside very soon.

I'm calling for a possible big sell off or crash type of move like we saw in August ,, at least I see some SHARP sell off comin very soon.

Conclusion:

I remain heavy long TZA and TVIX as I believe a major sell off is underway ,, RUT is still below MA200 and could test it before reversing ,, either way we are extreme close and today could be the start of the beginning of the sell off :-)

Keep accumulate those shorts on the rips !

Market view

Markets did a little rally on Friday before Xmas which I think they tried to hold up so everyone is happy into Xmas !

At least I were very happy , as the VIX kept moving higher (TVIX up 5%) on Friday as the markets were up too ,, so here you see the interesting correlation that actually the fear were not decreasing ,, but actually increased higher with the markets.

According to my analysis we should get a very nice SELL OFF and reversal to the downside which could be sharp to the downside.

We have 3 auctions , Tuesday France , Wednesday and Thursday Italian auction which could be in focus this week.

However ,, we are still in holiday trading so maybe they will delay it to new year ,, but honestly I think the sell off could already start very early this week.

My plan is to hold my swing trade TZA and TVIX as I think we could see below 1100 as a possibility over next weeks.

The VIX backtested an important trendline which we broke out of this summer,, now a bullish backtest is very good for the VIX and I think a major pivot top in markets is here.

Conclusion:


I remain heavy short markets via TZA and TVIX and holding for a swing trade, see you all in www.nwatrading.com trading room - hope everyone had a very nice christmas with the family. Also the pump into close on Friday look to me like a bull trap.

Market view - Merry Xmas !

Markets did a gap up higher and slowly got higher over the day,, nothing special to say.

What I did yesterday were to accumuate shorts via TZA and TVIX. I bought TVIX more in the opening which were down -8% and it ended up near green , so already a gainer for me in TVIX.

So right now holding all shorts tight, I dont expect any big drops before next week,, as we have christmas tomorrow , so everyone needs to be happy - so the best thing is we stay flat today or little down.

But I expect a major drop in markets beginning next week ,, possible EU downgrades will come out or other bad news about europe and debt crisis.

There is not much to says since yesterday post ,, I think this rally is the latest rally before the bear market should begin again ,, so careful out there..

Conclusion:

Staying long and strong for swing trades TZA and TVIX ,, TVIX already in profits but TZA little underwater now. Both holding for some weeks from here as I think some panic is underway in the markets.

Enjoy christmas everyone with family ! See you all again next week and get prepared !

Major top is getting close

I called the bottom for 2011 early in October that this would be the lows of the year - so far I have been 100% right on this call as the lows still hold 1075 area. Right now since then markets has been choppy , but overall moved higher to near 1300.

I'm thinking that AFTER this rally is done ,, which should happend before christmas ,, then I think we will commence a bear market and go down again -- therefore I started accumulate TVIX(29.3) yesterday and TZA as I believe its a good price to get here yesterday.

I still have cash in case we rally higher , but I see some VERY interesting stuff on VIX, VXX, AND TVIX which I wanna share to you.

So all in all ,, looking good for my call that a top may be very near ,, and in 2012 we could possible see below 1000.

Try take a look at the TVIX - VXX daily and VXX weekly + VIX daily + VIX weekly chart ,, all tells me that a major top is close.

Again remember that the MM's is trying to fool you so they have been making VIX lower with the markets lower ,, why ?? So really NO one out there is going to buy it , cause they see no benefit at buying it when VIX goes down with markets,, but hey ! Thats the game ,, they will load up cheap now with no one loading - and then suddendly you will begin to see the VIX spike high again.... and this will be a major spike in VIX.....

Therefore all of those charts telling me that a PIVOT high in time is close and we are about to see a mini crash over next months possible and next year.


So get prepared already now ,, if markets gaps higher ,, then I would recommend to start getting shorts all imo.

So far I said 1 week before that the markets would bottom in 2011 ,, and they did ,, now I'm tellin you that I think markets is going to top and make a major top before the bear market continues.

See you all in www.nwatrading.com

Market view

Markets did a NIIIICE rally yesterday where we bought the close on Monday via TNA 39.6$ and it ripped 11-12% higher just yesterday !

This was the move I were expecting and to me looks like it could be the start of the last rally before the bear market would begin again imho!

Actually what I did yesterday were to take near all profits in my TNA position as 12% in 1 day is a great gain and that the very short term charts is overbought on 30min and 60min chart.

I've got a target on SPY of 124 on Monday ,, and we got pretty much what I wanted for the short term.

Right now I see a possible mini pullback coming to test SPX 1230 MA50 on daily chart -- in case we pullback to this area I may add my TNA again.

In case we GAP UP today (Wednesday) I'm going to add/buy TZA as I think we either way would get a pullback to 1230 very likely,, the most bearish scenario imo would be little mini gap up ,, and then hard down ,, but thats why I'm going to load up TZA.


Ok where are we now then? I believe this is the LAST rally we will get possible from October lows where I called 2011 bottom. We are probably going to test 1270+ and possible higher levels ,, but I only give it this week,, because I think ugliness could come in the markets before new year.... so I'm prepared to switch my position to TZA.

If you are a longer term swing trader ,, in case markets rips a lot higher ,, you may take rest of TNA position and start buying TZA or TVIX for some swing trades.

I believe when SP downgrades eurozone which could happend over the next 2 weeks from now ,, markets could most likely get a little mini crash , so be prepared for this,, as it most likely will come one day.

Yesterday we pretty much nailed the top in mkts ,, join us in www.nwatrading.com to get LIVE help when to buy sell with overall targets and stuff.

Conclusion:

I've sold most of my TNA I got at Monday close with major profits in 1 day ,, I got a few TZA overnight hold for a possible pullback soon and I'm going to add rest TZA in case we gap up higher today,, after this I'm going to sell rest of EDC/TNA I hold if we gap higher wednesday. For no matter what I believe we test 1230 area on SPX before higher ,, but time will tell. I think this is the last rally we get before the bear market begins goes for it next leg down soon.

Market view

Yesterday I saw a bearish pattern on the 5 day chart SPX forming - a topping hs pattern with right and left shoulder at 1225 , head at 1230's and neckline at 1210. Therefore I took a loss in TNA from 43$ and took loss at 40.75$ yesterday as I saw this pattern and moved into TZA to make a daytrade quick when we dropped big last 1 hour. After the last 1 hour I got into swing trae TNA again (just at a lower price 39.6$) and holding for a swing.

What we got right now is a MAJOR bullish 30min and 60min divergence on the MACD ,, we see that the SPX price is making a lower low - but the MACD is making a higher high , which is bullish - not bearish.

So for now the pattern targets 1190-1200 area ,, and I still have little cash left IN CASE we drop to this area on Tuesday.

Either way ,, I'm very bullish now and therefore I think the downside is very limited and I'm still looking for rally to 1270+ (the recent highs)

Conclusion:

Sold TNA 40.75 ,, got TZA for a daytrade and made 2.4% on it last hour ,, then got back into TNA swing trade at a lower price 39.6$. All those things is explained in the www.nwatrading.com so all were prepared ,, if you want this join us live in the chat room.

Overall we have 30min and 60min bullish MACD divergences which tells me a major rally is underway - target is 1270+ for this rally still.

Have a nice day

Market view

Not much to say other than I still expect a possible great rally this week into xmas.

The markets should make a great reversal now to the upside as to me the TRANNIES looks like about to breakout above MA200 above 5000 , an area it havent seen since 2011 summer.

Somehow this will help the markets push up above 1270+ this week and possible to near 1300 area which is my target this week before xmas.

Usually this period is seasonal strong ,, but so far December has not been very strong at all - so lets see if we can manage to have a strong push higher this time.

Conclusion:

Overall remain very bullish ,, dow transports looks like about to do the major breakout higher ,, many stocks posted bullish harami pattterns and we picked lots of good winners in large caps and small caps on friday in www.nwatrading.com

Remain long TNA/EDC

Market view

Overall markets had a green day on Thursday and seems like some kind of reversal or consolidation before a bigger breakout hopefully.

The good thing is that the ES futures tested 1200 perfect which looks like great point to a bottom.

Russell futures have tested 700 which is also a good and round number.

FXE euro gave me a possible buy signal yesterday ,, so right now euro have the chance to move higher from here ,, which would help markets moving higher.

What I found interesting is emering markets going from support, I wanna share some finviz charts now.

Conclusion:

Staying long markets and holding over weekend - I still believe that we are on the way to above 1270+, got a buy signal in the euro which means the euro have good chances for rally higher from here.

Market view

Something very interesting yesterday ,, we got another 1% drop.

So the pullback is right now more than I expected (AND USUALLY) when its worse than expected we are getting close to bottom.

What I find very interesting is the SPY chart -- as the SPY made a PERFECT horizontal line or right shoulder to the potential left shoulder ,, look at charts... If this is perfect ,, we need to RALLY (Thursday).

Also the NDX made a gap fill from the recent rally - lets see if this gap fill will be the bottom in tech stocks.

All in all ,, we added the dip long TNA/EDC my average is 43$ on TNA now swing trade and holding all.

Conclusion:

I believe pullback is done and the next santa rally is comming to take us above 1270+ next and potential above 1300+.

Join www.nwatrading.com if you want live help intraday in our chat or small cap suggestions.

Market view

Markets did a gap up and then a good reversal into close with a flush to 1220 on SPX.

Amazing - as this was my original target for the pullback I mentioned last week ( pullback to SPX 1220-1230 ) I were expecting , so what I did on this move down is to add to TNA position on the way down to average down ,, right now TNA 43$ currently underwater but holding all position.

I believe that the pullback is done now and the next major rally to 1270+ is about to start.

1. The VIX is below daily MA200 ,, we wont flush down as long VIX is BELOW it. VIX needs to break above MA200 to get any kind of panic selling, until then just a pullback.

2. TRAN made a perfect 50% fib retracement from the last rally we got - this is a very good spot for a pullback target before next rally higher.

3. There is still the very nice potential inverted head and shoulders pattern in the SPX with left shoulder at 1220 , head 1150's and right shoulder now in at 1220 -- either way this pattern IF we break neckline at 1270 is suggesting MUCH higher levels in markets -- just saying keep it in mind....

4. I think EUR/USD will hit 1.3$ as a short term bottom before next rally starting ,, watch EUR/USD around this level. Its VERY VERY oversold now ,, and at least a bounce is to be expected.

Conclusion:

Its time to be very bullish here as many people got bearish on the last moves down ,, remember its OPEX week and we gonna see wild swings up and down like we had ,, first up 200 points , then down 200 points,,, wild swings, perfect if you daytrade.

Market view

Markets did a good move down on Monday , which erased nearly all the gains from Friday ,, wow UP and then DOWN big - this is such a yo yo lately ;-) but we have been catching most of the moves.

This was why I took 30% of profits on Friday in TNA/EDC ,, should just have sold all ,, but thats how it can go.

I added back ALL the 30% TNA/EDC which I sold on Friday so now 100% long again where I added TNA and average 43.5$ now.

Overall I remain very bullish and right now see that SPX may have formed right shoulder in a bigger inverted hs pattern.

All charts remains the same , and points to more upside in markets. The only thing which worries me is the euro ,, and it NEEDS to rally big from here - in case the dollar rallies further up (then I would stay defensive again - ) but for now staying long markets.

Conclusion:

Added back the 30% TNA/EDC on Monday dip and now 100% long markets again thinking the next run will take us to 1270+ this week.

Market view

Wow - what a fantastic week we had. We went short and got the nice move down in markets Thursday , then went long right near close and got the move up again on Friday.

Over the weekend I took a few profits in TNA/EDC , but held a lot over weekend for swing trade still.

I think we are on the way to 1292+ next and to me looks like this could happend before Christmas , probably this week if we break 1270 area.

There are MANY things which SUGGEST a rally per my charts.

1. TLT

2. VIX

3. UUP (Dollar)

4. TBT

Take a look at ALL charts - they all say that markets could be about to run hard to 1292+ this time all imo, therefore I took a few profits on Friday evening, and then held a lot as all charts points to more upside from here imo.

See you all in www.nwatrading.com rooms , we make a killing lately calling the tops and bottoms pretty accurateley.

Market view

PROFITS !!! What an amazing day yesterday ,, all my short ETF in major profits (TVIX, TZA, EDZ ) and I got the pullback I was looking for.

I really believe that yesterday was enough for the pullback I were looking for - either way, got a DAILY chart sell signal right now , which means you should stay short.

I took the profits near close yesterday and went LONG markets TNA/EDC. What I see is that markets came back to form a BULLISH inverted head and shoulders pattern as I will chart for you all.

Those patterns is extremely bullish as I said 2 weeks ago, (then we got massive rally) and right now we are forming another one which tells me 1292+ should be taken out imo.

Conclusion:

Just wanna remind you that we have a DAILY chart sell signal - so as long SPX is below 1250 at least you should probably stay short - but overall I see a pattern developing which tells me to go long ,, this is why I took profits on shorts and went long TNA/EDC (Took major profits in my shorts)

If you wanna make some good money try out www.nwatrading.com we are killing it over the past months.