Happy New year ! 2012

Happy new year to everyone ! I will start to wish EVERYONE OUT THERE a happy new year and wish you best of luck in everything in 2012 !


About the markets we had a little dead cat bounce imo to trap some more shorts in,, the big decline should be coming still. However we did NOT confirm the bearish engulfing pattern on Wednesday ,, so we need a CLOSE BELOW yesterdays lows to confirm this pattern to the downside- so this would mean that markets should soon start to sell off hard.

We had a nice sell off on Wednesday ,, but this is nothing really especially when I'm looking for 1100 and below in January ,, so a bigger decline is about to come.

What would be great is the markets to go down on Friday to make the WEEKLY chart on SPY a bearish engulfing pattern too ,, which would confirm more downside next week.

Overall we are still near a major top ,, so still time to load up on shorts or puts imo as the bear market will return and we should see below 1075 lows in 2012 !

My October 2011 lows predictions came true which was maybe my best call this year ,, to go long 1080 on SPX near the lows and said a year end rally would come.

I'm in quite opposite direction now.... right now we have a LOT more optimism in markets than we had in early October where EVERYONE were short,, now people looking for 1500+ and stuff ,, which is the BEST INGREDIENT for a new hard sell off,, when people really dont think you get such a sell off. So if you are more bullish now than in early October ,, well THANK you - as this is the natural sentiment shift when markets moving higher ,, I'm going against the whole crowd and saying that we are about to see another major drop in markets below the October lows.



PREDICTIONS FOR 2012 !

My predictions for 2012 is that its going to be a WILD year ,, even WILDER than 2011 ,, up and down ,, huge moves so for a normal trader and investor ,, it should be horrible ,, but for swing traders like me it should be heaven,, as we try to trade all the up moves and down moves in markets. I believe that the 2nd half will be truly horrible in 2012 and the first half of 2012 will get better than second.

I think the real ugly of this bear market will start by mid 2012 and then it will be no mercy for bulls ,, markets would just continue to move down in months imo.

Gold and Silver should take out new highs in 2012 and I expect gold and silver to make a longer term bottom here soon.


Bottom line: I remain heavy short markets and long TVIX and TZA ,, you see its the day before new year,, they might try to hold markets up until then - but I expect the sell off to really start in January with possible some eurozone downgrades coming ,, who knows whats coming....