tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51074696387648551602024-03-05T07:48:24.381+00:00Sqwii TraderSqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.comBlogger392125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-8279494929015482132012-01-27T18:13:00.003+00:002012-01-27T18:14:22.831+00:00www.sqwiitrader.comI'm right now moving my site to www.sqwiitrader.com where my future blog posts will be for all the members in there.<br /><br />We also have chat room to do live intraday chart analysis, playing small caps and doing normal swing trades.<br /><br />We will do much more focus on intraday daytrading too.<br /><br />Hope you like my new siteSqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-11408385070184660422012-01-27T07:09:00.007+00:002012-08-04T00:23:41.996+00:00Market viewSqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-82330619086103360902012-01-26T15:17:00.004+00:002012-01-26T15:17:53.183+00:00ES hit trendline 2007 highs<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiOLR6k9CfmS3wCRFH2ZDMBjuukQVPR3BTBx_BKw44BLhW2mv39M2-6B0TOjbn9SWpY33v4_0aeTucEQG1AhZefivDa2gDfoxKuDS-Ro4bIB6l8I9Q9lYJfL1X9U1-aTxOD13j4nU41Ko/s1600/10-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 187px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiOLR6k9CfmS3wCRFH2ZDMBjuukQVPR3BTBx_BKw44BLhW2mv39M2-6B0TOjbn9SWpY33v4_0aeTucEQG1AhZefivDa2gDfoxKuDS-Ro4bIB6l8I9Q9lYJfL1X9U1-aTxOD13j4nU41Ko/s320/10-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701960201289732194" /></a><br />Today ES futures hit my trendline from 2007 highs and 2011 highs ,, lets see if this will mark something or we just blow it.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-28649750311293626422012-01-25T22:16:00.006+00:002012-01-26T13:10:52.880+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4zv65fiEB3a7rQbo7ZvffXYhOd_or0n32sZWkGrIM4rjACZDoMM4vKV520KPKkSAed9_0CTtm_Eg7hO4cSFS9iD-htfxQIIvSU1bedLWLd40Gv5DKgoDq5lBVhsA2aDJH_3Vm4fpqePc/s1600/9-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 190px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4zv65fiEB3a7rQbo7ZvffXYhOd_or0n32sZWkGrIM4rjACZDoMM4vKV520KPKkSAed9_0CTtm_Eg7hO4cSFS9iD-htfxQIIvSU1bedLWLd40Gv5DKgoDq5lBVhsA2aDJH_3Vm4fpqePc/s320/9-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701927497560054882" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSBfgO8mGt5UQT8AkZCRiBY3ejBDOyeW3mkkSbeLBXBJSwkapbrTPlQJ6_W2F8f1DDdZ9S05XPrpbch-gu0dTrS52qweUGcqesYVCYfFcR7NfHsiwc3dhuUhkyGvAZVoupP9acc-WUMvE/s1600/8-9.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 314px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSBfgO8mGt5UQT8AkZCRiBY3ejBDOyeW3mkkSbeLBXBJSwkapbrTPlQJ6_W2F8f1DDdZ9S05XPrpbch-gu0dTrS52qweUGcqesYVCYfFcR7NfHsiwc3dhuUhkyGvAZVoupP9acc-WUMvE/s320/8-9.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701703453821643810" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfWjIDfTlcluzrbfpRTsrm78wQHtWGFq7y9CmwbJOh060xojh8HzoRJiOTTMsOSSjwTcrC3n-L1E9NFlnle7rDD1NnuRiNfaZnm4pz48bxI5S3kxTJUoR3khRpRdgPsYHtkQd5yCoB_eE/s1600/8-7.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 196px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfWjIDfTlcluzrbfpRTsrm78wQHtWGFq7y9CmwbJOh060xojh8HzoRJiOTTMsOSSjwTcrC3n-L1E9NFlnle7rDD1NnuRiNfaZnm4pz48bxI5S3kxTJUoR3khRpRdgPsYHtkQd5yCoB_eE/s320/8-7.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701701432688760802" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV7cTeFvWeBEEaXrBYIDe7AfR74laNfF6DiQV-1eEr9cIvSM6tz6IMGMDqDoDOo4eF-4tJFE6qoCe3KMXDQzee4FvsrSjEyCnjGSpjtkYM2xE531nkt8SxuCupAoPqZvzCvQBh5MtGk3k/s1600/8-6.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 262px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV7cTeFvWeBEEaXrBYIDe7AfR74laNfF6DiQV-1eEr9cIvSM6tz6IMGMDqDoDOo4eF-4tJFE6qoCe3KMXDQzee4FvsrSjEyCnjGSpjtkYM2xE531nkt8SxuCupAoPqZvzCvQBh5MtGk3k/s320/8-6.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701698859369353426" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsXPwC8ntiw5NUaYZx5RvO3VBA9Yr7bRPiARRsYTzPLrLLdEzetzEET32GNyo1hKD2uWrDhCyr0HgNeBhT_cvaHsJ3UO07E8ydQYttikMr3lAEppv60H-FwZjtsg0timrO_XFpM_8_zmo/s1600/8-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsXPwC8ntiw5NUaYZx5RvO3VBA9Yr7bRPiARRsYTzPLrLLdEzetzEET32GNyo1hKD2uWrDhCyr0HgNeBhT_cvaHsJ3UO07E8ydQYttikMr3lAEppv60H-FwZjtsg0timrO_XFpM_8_zmo/s320/8-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701698752705445778" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqt4phEATv5gRxhvs4suhUItC1KqctE7fWZqFmcadepLE0y3IhPlskEcFwmAg5Hh0B2Eq7PiplDHcmqyTdGL0lr1-yMtwihNNLmNU7fJ1ZA4H648vbdutJnc-z7ZrAIeDVGeVdN5ioWVM/s1600/8-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqt4phEATv5gRxhvs4suhUItC1KqctE7fWZqFmcadepLE0y3IhPlskEcFwmAg5Hh0B2Eq7PiplDHcmqyTdGL0lr1-yMtwihNNLmNU7fJ1ZA4H648vbdutJnc-z7ZrAIeDVGeVdN5ioWVM/s320/8-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701698728563786994" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtiUONFJ3JN-FzaNjieaTVjhkbBomE4GY8r_OuNjpvuvzvH__phBOCkvIYk8484x_5iXgEvoYB4k6whUqTarGCD7eqTzH3CdcZ0NQoIoEo-Zoovt6CGODjamTuDTFoY3bPybZWhMSPU_8/s1600/8-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtiUONFJ3JN-FzaNjieaTVjhkbBomE4GY8r_OuNjpvuvzvH__phBOCkvIYk8484x_5iXgEvoYB4k6whUqTarGCD7eqTzH3CdcZ0NQoIoEo-Zoovt6CGODjamTuDTFoY3bPybZWhMSPU_8/s320/8-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701698720229240402" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqJuzvLNx6XLPKl3IyrgM2K-jUzeWtkshj9505Qcw2HzljqDXGnDpU5s7XJNwrBqKKIt9HVDYq9bbJ21uuZNUvwmVXerxYJBY9C74zvZRTfeXcLiAFioGQZnyPNgLYSraXbTjQDYTe_uY/s1600/8-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqJuzvLNx6XLPKl3IyrgM2K-jUzeWtkshj9505Qcw2HzljqDXGnDpU5s7XJNwrBqKKIt9HVDYq9bbJ21uuZNUvwmVXerxYJBY9C74zvZRTfeXcLiAFioGQZnyPNgLYSraXbTjQDYTe_uY/s320/8-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701698713953600194" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOGaQiVxhVDDmUVs44loqodUylytnOC_Ocnr49UWKgYqzUKKb6nnue3gWIQNGeljn6fmcfOW5TD-cC78tr_qQVdGeTq-LOqezL2S57AIS114V5oywVBQA_9xKfBc2n4FWMCgWmD4vWI8E/s1600/8-5.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOGaQiVxhVDDmUVs44loqodUylytnOC_Ocnr49UWKgYqzUKKb6nnue3gWIQNGeljn6fmcfOW5TD-cC78tr_qQVdGeTq-LOqezL2S57AIS114V5oywVBQA_9xKfBc2n4FWMCgWmD4vWI8E/s320/8-5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701698757019747618" /></a><br />Shiiiaz now I'm beginning to feel very pain in my shorts ,, this markets keeps going higher with the RSI(14) on QQQ at the highest level last years. Either way ,, it all looks close ,, I'm going to hold and stand through this pain ,, I admit that I did not see this big move coming and so high levels ,, but again they keep it to the extremes until everyone gives up and to me it seems like every single bear out there gave up already...... so this is very close to turn imo.<br /><br />I have some interesting charts:<br /><br />1. VIX made a very nice big bottom tail + filled a gap ,, the VIX chart looks bottomed imo per daily chart ,, but again hard to say.<br /><br />2. QQQ so overbought right now , never been this overbought before in a long time,, but remember can stay overbought in a longer period.<br /><br />3. I still see the very bearish topping hs pattern in the markets ,, the mini one we had summer 2011 ,, and now we have a major one which should be more ugly,, targets 8000 on dow jones... I still think we are in a bear market ,, and think we see below October lows this year.<br /><br />4. What is VERY interesting is that NYA backtested today at the close the neckline from the topping hs pattern this summer,, so a bearish backtest ? I think so<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />All in all ,, holding my shorts ,, VERY painful right now ,, but I will hold thru the pain even if it last a little longer ,, I still see this as a big BEAR MARKET RALLY ,, so staying patient and looking to get rewared with my patience.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-91653642214185850462012-01-25T07:04:00.002+00:002012-01-25T07:12:28.992+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3GjQQ_9UqUuW-tVTf1GVWMkqLDrwlDenGLoEi_G21JrlP-zE4c_bQXHFLf9-vqtvCuQELyWQw0aI9U2bIGGDIbaUMZcvOKCeRxhpsDcvFtF_rc287ByHIVdnwgljNKDt75imPcnpWTo/s1600/15-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 111px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3GjQQ_9UqUuW-tVTf1GVWMkqLDrwlDenGLoEi_G21JrlP-zE4c_bQXHFLf9-vqtvCuQELyWQw0aI9U2bIGGDIbaUMZcvOKCeRxhpsDcvFtF_rc287ByHIVdnwgljNKDt75imPcnpWTo/s320/15-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701463983227851938" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH5jVTvXrU7W0ZMH_XaDE6kCjmkb4Vug4xsKc3KqqykaT5C0JamItMusT16iWhyMLOT5F3IO8F9V_KrmF_syG_ajP0m2emFT9n7PH4MhIN75RJx4BIIvsHWTvD2zuxaW8yGKcTdZo5igI/s1600/15-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH5jVTvXrU7W0ZMH_XaDE6kCjmkb4Vug4xsKc3KqqykaT5C0JamItMusT16iWhyMLOT5F3IO8F9V_KrmF_syG_ajP0m2emFT9n7PH4MhIN75RJx4BIIvsHWTvD2zuxaW8yGKcTdZo5igI/s320/15-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5701463983573682994" /></a><br />AAPL made some great earnings ,, but however markets struggled to gain a lot with futures right now only up 0.3% ,, so non affects on overall markets however the QQQ or NASDSAQ is hitting some interesting spots today....<br /><br />Right now NASDASQ is at some very huge resistance from the yearly chart - yes a YEARLY trendline from 2008 highs.<br /><br />I think this will be an extreme strong one to break and therefore I dont think we see techs go any higher from here.<br /><br />So what is most likely is a gap up in the techs and then flush down this morning.<br /><br />Dow jones and SPX is still below the top from 23th January this Monday ,, so time will tell how markets open , still anything can happend.<br /><br />On the very short term chart especially on XLF I see a very bearish topping hs pattern which suggest markets actually will go DOWN today (Wednesday) so I really suspect if markets is gapping higher it would only be a little gap up on Apple earnings ,, but then a flush down.<br /><br />XLF filled a gap yesterday + forming right shoulder in topping hs pattern 5 day chart.<br /><br />Not much to say either than VIX is creeping higher from trendline and looks good to explode to upside ,, markets looks topped on Monday 23th January at SPY 132.25 so lets see how markets reacts to this.<br /><br /><br />My personal target for dow jones this year 2012 is 8000ish ,, so thats a near 4000-5000 points drop from current level... yes 4000-5000 ,, this is why I stay so bearish right now as I think this rally is a pure but violent BEAR MARKET RALLY.<br /><br />Markets ended lower -0.2% so nothing big there. I'm sitting tight and having good patience with my short ETF's as someday they will rip higher that I'm pretty sure of and it should be very soon as the markets looks very topped on Monday 23th.<br /><br />Lets see how the techs reacts to the yearly trendline from today.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-32975476128309244462012-01-23T21:26:00.003+00:002012-01-23T21:39:29.508+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXVz1pkuvlbNm-Wc7mt15z0TygzeI-LCVbwOcAOF8xMdOJXK1FQH7Hr18J1dKUxsRfBMjB1au7Ry6z12RzcekPf8Se72yzPuiYpFMpYjGykuUiTHPuyWUN7d8ONb1yb04nmkzK1tiXx0Y/s1600/14-5.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 266px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXVz1pkuvlbNm-Wc7mt15z0TygzeI-LCVbwOcAOF8xMdOJXK1FQH7Hr18J1dKUxsRfBMjB1au7Ry6z12RzcekPf8Se72yzPuiYpFMpYjGykuUiTHPuyWUN7d8ONb1yb04nmkzK1tiXx0Y/s320/14-5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700945294319087202" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRoPDwHT2p5XnvFGWMxr-ipLyim5LEV1KVK8NQjCGonD5PdS9QzvP8vi94EvUG9HYETuoIraOZpwYMENpQrH604Ps7SLGjaL7wh1646Als18YN_ncO6ANFRdjZayG0X-kSnoAYpSn6x80/s1600/14-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 265px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRoPDwHT2p5XnvFGWMxr-ipLyim5LEV1KVK8NQjCGonD5PdS9QzvP8vi94EvUG9HYETuoIraOZpwYMENpQrH604Ps7SLGjaL7wh1646Als18YN_ncO6ANFRdjZayG0X-kSnoAYpSn6x80/s320/14-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700944061411049970" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz7OVhrCuEgR3S5fuWYxSAxBg_jWV41MzjMpAX4PAj-2dH3Oy1NkpN-Qr86bVDXne8GqIsPNqMzupKBgJPJCUqAUTX2FtSHkRHEAnk_7HhBZ4Y1mCagf_fUVQxLACMWecv0bi-ZpSagkQ/s1600/14-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 247px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz7OVhrCuEgR3S5fuWYxSAxBg_jWV41MzjMpAX4PAj-2dH3Oy1NkpN-Qr86bVDXne8GqIsPNqMzupKBgJPJCUqAUTX2FtSHkRHEAnk_7HhBZ4Y1mCagf_fUVQxLACMWecv0bi-ZpSagkQ/s320/14-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700944059601664994" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOR0lKaz5A19rjtYstDpfsoUCkcB4K3MENnRrMOSyc0iWvnl0wDpu9A7lvJeBRTKQFq-XJ1Hl9yF353xgZ8o4dptp9txP9w9fOctr1v-LYU_v4rY9fSYhP_qZJhGce5jxEZMhybbxuoK8/s1600/14-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 241px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOR0lKaz5A19rjtYstDpfsoUCkcB4K3MENnRrMOSyc0iWvnl0wDpu9A7lvJeBRTKQFq-XJ1Hl9yF353xgZ8o4dptp9txP9w9fOctr1v-LYU_v4rY9fSYhP_qZJhGce5jxEZMhybbxuoK8/s320/14-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700944053911396578" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggbRWot6qQoBD3UikQ87T5etOtfWm7dTw4MJAopWcJmIPVaGJnA5WyV8jbfHoTNMnALpcHh6FKEe2eQWdfTC6IyLajmvN5W9lJL8xI3aqcC9D6j5LKM5YG4NXCSvuAZ9v-YmLpBFn0caE/s1600/14-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 262px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggbRWot6qQoBD3UikQ87T5etOtfWm7dTw4MJAopWcJmIPVaGJnA5WyV8jbfHoTNMnALpcHh6FKEe2eQWdfTC6IyLajmvN5W9lJL8xI3aqcC9D6j5LKM5YG4NXCSvuAZ9v-YmLpBFn0caE/s320/14-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700944072304260994" /></a><br />Markets had one of the best intraday reversals I've seen over the past 30 days. So lets see if this is something important but all in all , all the charts i'm looking at pointing to this being a major major top for 2012 ,,, and even over the next few years.<br /><br />I think this might be one of the best spots to short markets over next few years you will get.<br /><br />1. Markets extremely overbought ,, RSI(14) at 70 ,, last times were before August drop 2011....<br /><br />2. We have a daily chart very clear BEARISH divergence ,, all in place for a major drop<br /><br />3. NYA and other indexes forming a very clear bearish topping head and shoulders pattern ,, this was a pattern we had summer 2011 which played out ,, this one is even bigger so this might even get more ugly.<br /><br />4. Sentiment is at extreme bullishness right now ,, thats the RECIPE you want if you want the markets to sell off. If not many bullish by sentiment markets would not fall a lot ,, but with so many bullish/neutral markets can easy sell off hard.<br /><br />5. VIX actually BOUNCED of the trendline from 2011 lows ,, so looking good from those levels and potential low in VIX for 2012.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />All in all ,, seems like today might be interesting day for bears finally as we got the best "sellers" intraday showing up. Also every charts points to a major top in and VIX major bottom , so a drop in markets very likely.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-62345108930440843552012-01-21T10:50:00.004+00:002012-01-21T12:17:56.491+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMJ3bv1w2vOIBgsztnby9ryQtccDTXhwV0wXPA30rGOmal2E12psY-napjSHGDlhGqP57r1WEZFkbkXiU-iUi_luzeWWI6ofCPD2ChB21qLlbiFWkHQ9mxeaEnKoEboZGadZgUqhzWi-0/s1600/13-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 247px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMJ3bv1w2vOIBgsztnby9ryQtccDTXhwV0wXPA30rGOmal2E12psY-napjSHGDlhGqP57r1WEZFkbkXiU-iUi_luzeWWI6ofCPD2ChB21qLlbiFWkHQ9mxeaEnKoEboZGadZgUqhzWi-0/s320/13-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700058425859720866" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKxcibsIq9NdNb4yk3aJo57aSHPSLTWYW7VwhBnYDEw1BZLBXHKJOH3MRWkSjiAq7nfIEAx2AI3fJysY4Q0oG9-qq6rVf3mAuRn2sIXSNa10qDXwBv8PEbtdXklJ8cDWoQ2tmkOtvj7ks/s1600/13-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKxcibsIq9NdNb4yk3aJo57aSHPSLTWYW7VwhBnYDEw1BZLBXHKJOH3MRWkSjiAq7nfIEAx2AI3fJysY4Q0oG9-qq6rVf3mAuRn2sIXSNa10qDXwBv8PEbtdXklJ8cDWoQ2tmkOtvj7ks/s320/13-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700042618065049954" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIS6lLsX_Kc9StgkigslhMJkBnRd_j2lT0F-kS8QaIZHfkK7EmShaP_SzETpKC6qszsZc23Xaxnodzaq4-KyrkgdLolYNAyc9kxC8R2BXVcbQTdiRvZWnvhj2MHvuzNLaNDBLCqQoHjSE/s1600/13-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 319px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIS6lLsX_Kc9StgkigslhMJkBnRd_j2lT0F-kS8QaIZHfkK7EmShaP_SzETpKC6qszsZc23Xaxnodzaq4-KyrkgdLolYNAyc9kxC8R2BXVcbQTdiRvZWnvhj2MHvuzNLaNDBLCqQoHjSE/s320/13-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700040211611837730" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLMTBA-EPcoicDtDtighu0yym6owrdbLhrCSA1TiP7wh1Sopqve_THPccV83JlcHKrhlr6Fr-L5VRFDZbIshIQQxnecEx7g2BMaxgyjsPKi3losImhxRgRw4bzeizwEwfUckiDun8nSsA/s1600/13-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 313px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLMTBA-EPcoicDtDtighu0yym6owrdbLhrCSA1TiP7wh1Sopqve_THPccV83JlcHKrhlr6Fr-L5VRFDZbIshIQQxnecEx7g2BMaxgyjsPKi3losImhxRgRw4bzeizwEwfUckiDun8nSsA/s320/13-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5700040212195340642" /></a><br />Markets were flat on Friday and closed at near 0% still the same as Thursday 19th cycle peek I had.<br /><br />What was interesting on Friday were the VIX were plunging ,, somehow looks like a capitulation move in the VIX ,, as they moved it down to some VERY interesting levels just beofore close.<br /><br /><br />I'm right now getting smoked in TVIX as my average is 26-27$ with huge size position ,,, so right now deeply underwater which is bad , but again I know that TVIX is a fast mover so last time it ran big were from 20$ to 45$ in 5 trading days ,, thats more than 100% gains in 5 trading days.<br /><br />Right now I'm underwater a bit ,, but I remain pretty sure that this is just a bear market rally (POWERFULL one) and we are going to see NEW LOWS for 2012 in the markets....<br /><br />So I remain heavy short,, painful yes - but again the view of the stock markets is still the same and we did not get above the level from 19th cycle. <br /><br />So take a look at VIX and see which very interesting spot it saw ,, it was option expiration for Friday ,, so seems like they tried holding markets up until then.<br /><br />Next week will imo be VERY telling what is going to happend, as dow jones is only a few 100 points from 2011 top , and I dont expect dow jones to make new highs but making a "lower high" this time.<br /><br />Gold and silver still surging after my multimonth bottom call late December when AGQ was 38.25$ I picked it up ,, right at the bottom ,, now its in the 50's ,, so congrats if you got some long gold and silver. Still think the bottom was in ,, but a pullback in gold and silver might come ,, so buy the dips.<br /><br />Conclusion: So far markets held down on Friday with my cycle high at 19th January which should be the peek of optimism, so the markets should have topped out and markets should be about to see the bear market commence from here. This fits imo pretty good with where the VIX is standing right now. My bottom call for 2012 in VIX was 20-21 level , however on Friday we got last move below this level to the 18.3 which is VERY interesting spot imo, so I guess they moved the VIX down hard to test a key trendline from the lows in VIX.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-18914649431836953412012-01-19T21:47:00.006+00:002012-01-20T18:10:06.803+00:00Market view 19th Cycle date high<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg4rMgNpPMZ8ClrH7Zij_ieiyIAkhe94BzeFxC-9riCywkxS1YLOLjjdmumJdEPcO3JxNhMab5diXic0VbhNNV09UVwvu-mUFTqxKbk5-T0c6HiIgUWDYuaPGgoiVBqMOtke4jNJ7kURM/s1600/7-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg4rMgNpPMZ8ClrH7Zij_ieiyIAkhe94BzeFxC-9riCywkxS1YLOLjjdmumJdEPcO3JxNhMab5diXic0VbhNNV09UVwvu-mUFTqxKbk5-T0c6HiIgUWDYuaPGgoiVBqMOtke4jNJ7kURM/s320/7-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699778094458958066" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCMufFqM-KbiPuCcc6b584hj8yooUYWHIvZHsXxSkA7yQwn-nVojF1eLfdb6adE3rX1-Vrn11j1feuXdmWvk-zLVxTeoiOjWKsEstceaFrGEBNhb-Ss-UsqjNRMYtGNDW5sQ08eHl0U9s/s1600/7-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCMufFqM-KbiPuCcc6b584hj8yooUYWHIvZHsXxSkA7yQwn-nVojF1eLfdb6adE3rX1-Vrn11j1feuXdmWvk-zLVxTeoiOjWKsEstceaFrGEBNhb-Ss-UsqjNRMYtGNDW5sQ08eHl0U9s/s320/7-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699768445131900498" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjMJaxtsaO0SnjwkvRxKIswkmtwLaAyA2xzyUu1tj6Esy-O0Ndq4Si_L7QdeTXXjJOO3LUjIFCMxO51nS4wOFCOF_zZYOIQMZlyRugMCfIqYVEMtn106f4Wo9cGHyLuabPW08xCsw6-Jc/s1600/7-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjMJaxtsaO0SnjwkvRxKIswkmtwLaAyA2xzyUu1tj6Esy-O0Ndq4Si_L7QdeTXXjJOO3LUjIFCMxO51nS4wOFCOF_zZYOIQMZlyRugMCfIqYVEMtn106f4Wo9cGHyLuabPW08xCsw6-Jc/s320/7-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699501969321303106" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZG8IoG4PHbOjxp40eMgXVCzC1qX0eT5IRmdsKRSZ9ZEUiYLnmlJ8qsn8dxuL4OKYt4E2Kt2RkGnfiZUN9bQxhSSKXecqfTWHqT1FAV8imZeBO-Za01rnbT5KM0ULf99jOv-vi0ZdURso/s1600/6-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 235px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZG8IoG4PHbOjxp40eMgXVCzC1qX0eT5IRmdsKRSZ9ZEUiYLnmlJ8qsn8dxuL4OKYt4E2Kt2RkGnfiZUN9bQxhSSKXecqfTWHqT1FAV8imZeBO-Za01rnbT5KM0ULf99jOv-vi0ZdURso/s320/6-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699493160757218706" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjca8P9PzKFs0jfVJ4GU8H_5Kt9x3HFBpNpqww5tCILu5JtKDfiUuoWXAQPDHcN3NnCb66kdGu8EUkhWD4cTcDhutwkfsAHrSTGXssPkHjWZseY4hUB4S9BBtUbYxjPL9WPc-oNNWYku-U/s1600/6-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 235px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjca8P9PzKFs0jfVJ4GU8H_5Kt9x3HFBpNpqww5tCILu5JtKDfiUuoWXAQPDHcN3NnCb66kdGu8EUkhWD4cTcDhutwkfsAHrSTGXssPkHjWZseY4hUB4S9BBtUbYxjPL9WPc-oNNWYku-U/s320/6-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699464243398634434" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcYHhbPGbxVp7RaSpvpOFMp4mNmw5nnrqEN8Gc7GKiIYCXftu3Bv_N6Gy8dn0Ds4eLeehEewFiE0oNFGRzL5n-CRUw_pCokqN0q-awSSYntaif2NyxBq-qiFTtPrrc8LBNUKX_0axPE-U/s1600/6-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 235px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcYHhbPGbxVp7RaSpvpOFMp4mNmw5nnrqEN8Gc7GKiIYCXftu3Bv_N6Gy8dn0Ds4eLeehEewFiE0oNFGRzL5n-CRUw_pCokqN0q-awSSYntaif2NyxBq-qiFTtPrrc8LBNUKX_0axPE-U/s320/6-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699464248746638658" /></a><br />Markets had its cycle date high today at 19th ,, which starts a new major cycle where the optimism in mkts should have a peak today and therefore the fear should be low.<br /><br />I like the fact that GOOG tanking big time afterhours ,, which fits with a potential reversal in markets tomorrow.<br /><br />What is VERY interesting is:<br /><br />1. SPY hit the trendline today from the top 2011 ,, perfect spot for reversal<br /><br />2. DOW JONES futures hitting the trendline from 2007 top, 2011 top and now (I think 2012 top...)<br /><br />So all in all , I remain all in shorts and ready for the fall ,, IMO we could start by tomorrow after the peek in optimism made today and some major trendline spots hits today.<br /><br />SPX hit 1315 ,, MORE than I expected yes ,,, I really did not expect SPX to see 1315,, or even 1300 , I thought we would stop before ,, but again markets ALWAYS goes to the extremes.....<br /><br />All major indexes now have RSI(14) right at 70 ,, which is extreme overbought on the daily charts,,,, those who go long here is wicked sick imo ,, the time to go long was in October .... and the time to go short is... now !<br /><br />Watch for a potential reversal to the downside tomorrow (Friday) on OPEX day.<br /><br />I'm looking for markets to take out October lows from this level here in 2012... if I'm wrong,, then Dow jones will take out the highs from 2011,, but so far so good.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-36564891444095730592012-01-18T22:48:00.011+00:002012-01-19T07:45:39.657+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1ef7mFQkWBA1ueFthyZsUCElAISOBRek6vEL_yqAbuiUucWtlGXVHJ62a0pK7hLATaM_e5tU3D8VE-0AaBqPi3sYB_yIOLkno41fqb_oJc5MBB0MazwBvBC58bnyuIBf9DOZjBylb31I/s1600/12-8.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 317px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1ef7mFQkWBA1ueFthyZsUCElAISOBRek6vEL_yqAbuiUucWtlGXVHJ62a0pK7hLATaM_e5tU3D8VE-0AaBqPi3sYB_yIOLkno41fqb_oJc5MBB0MazwBvBC58bnyuIBf9DOZjBylb31I/s320/12-8.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699246091388219282" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnHMVRVwgKFnVcAwxhcMR9mxWRQvQ5VCOmBf2pNfvknDQoGj9hFynMpMqqz6MGzTYw9hPSAmSpd-2SqaO2BgsWZwkUyzeZmzbPB_9qk0PBxKRQVWiMQ8b9I1x4aVlAlDBkIiWPqzdd47M/s1600/12-7.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnHMVRVwgKFnVcAwxhcMR9mxWRQvQ5VCOmBf2pNfvknDQoGj9hFynMpMqqz6MGzTYw9hPSAmSpd-2SqaO2BgsWZwkUyzeZmzbPB_9qk0PBxKRQVWiMQ8b9I1x4aVlAlDBkIiWPqzdd47M/s320/12-7.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699115228824104306" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQT3JQqSAncLZnJXv8m6Lz-H2Qp8T6xZIFLIVuaFo8NZbGTgw6s5zCFRXOF7h021XEPEq-JbaS748NRfdDSaLT6X_1bZ9Zk1xc-56xIWwLUBLB57jLEMCmVqW_6kQYx_bNS807jd-NkMw/s1600/12-6.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 262px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQT3JQqSAncLZnJXv8m6Lz-H2Qp8T6xZIFLIVuaFo8NZbGTgw6s5zCFRXOF7h021XEPEq-JbaS748NRfdDSaLT6X_1bZ9Zk1xc-56xIWwLUBLB57jLEMCmVqW_6kQYx_bNS807jd-NkMw/s320/12-6.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699113763863756962" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2j30edBW7pPkX06EpSmFeuKo2T4QD0RSEHm2_5U-BNtbb1R2nlDUrTq3vYOCUVeLWv0Tn-nYdIhSuHPVtLif0fxyeUjlbqxjveNjTf81lpND8pqJJjMWd_j-FewCnra9nXZ5sEus8VSA/s1600/12-5.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 316px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2j30edBW7pPkX06EpSmFeuKo2T4QD0RSEHm2_5U-BNtbb1R2nlDUrTq3vYOCUVeLWv0Tn-nYdIhSuHPVtLif0fxyeUjlbqxjveNjTf81lpND8pqJJjMWd_j-FewCnra9nXZ5sEus8VSA/s320/12-5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699112112363336626" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHeaFrtMDWwPXd-T_gDrvBuSQR3cAJ0KLu8m6f7z_NzlOV7zcRmiFCtBIVnfkn21XMqbEtwMxhAe6DiVsR4RGtilgOJOMizIBQ7GjjsqJ5RM7ypvMiJUN1hMnDXUscb5gPZCZv85F7JX0/s1600/12-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 319px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHeaFrtMDWwPXd-T_gDrvBuSQR3cAJ0KLu8m6f7z_NzlOV7zcRmiFCtBIVnfkn21XMqbEtwMxhAe6DiVsR4RGtilgOJOMizIBQ7GjjsqJ5RM7ypvMiJUN1hMnDXUscb5gPZCZv85F7JX0/s320/12-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699111281587643154" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHCbKYoECpMv9Xp3j9xCPrcjnj_syYK3Ff6yKa1IU5daBqRo1NS-4ketn8JSk32LWF6sfROG7QUxsCLhyphenhyphenf90dP2jQ-bZMmc9oiROCS6GFz4Jzn2VISU3Jmju3xg0qCaipMQdJjnrnVJfs/s1600/12-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHCbKYoECpMv9Xp3j9xCPrcjnj_syYK3Ff6yKa1IU5daBqRo1NS-4ketn8JSk32LWF6sfROG7QUxsCLhyphenhyphenf90dP2jQ-bZMmc9oiROCS6GFz4Jzn2VISU3Jmju3xg0qCaipMQdJjnrnVJfs/s320/12-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699110488027816466" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXscXHwYM97TqhzUWQugsXqFEiLPxgKrs61-81evlxafcGJy5jXTmLx1NzoU1Xyr5eUiboGbiJglHoXfbuP285ZIhrOWk3vq9feVEKzHlgtnXHOooK23dt3b-x7Y3Qk8FMRhp0r7PO6FQ/s1600/12-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 319px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXscXHwYM97TqhzUWQugsXqFEiLPxgKrs61-81evlxafcGJy5jXTmLx1NzoU1Xyr5eUiboGbiJglHoXfbuP285ZIhrOWk3vq9feVEKzHlgtnXHOooK23dt3b-x7Y3Qk8FMRhp0r7PO6FQ/s320/12-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699110489800205394" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaukG49r5XJTSpJo3YlD0rohp6bRCucrGJrcPTDlBpr6nLwy8eJg5Iniuz51BvuiRDQYl4WxYijT5SFLF4UZ6mxcPLTJbMFoXnKfwATtmir98mL3rA47ckOYpIQdTUrovzhqnOou8aBIY/s1600/12-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 114px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaukG49r5XJTSpJo3YlD0rohp6bRCucrGJrcPTDlBpr6nLwy8eJg5Iniuz51BvuiRDQYl4WxYijT5SFLF4UZ6mxcPLTJbMFoXnKfwATtmir98mL3rA47ckOYpIQdTUrovzhqnOou8aBIY/s320/12-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699109064495639666" /></a><br />Markets did gap lower/flat ,, and after this ran nicely higher and what is imo interesting is 2 things.<br /><br />1. SPX hit the 78.6% fib retracement from the 2011 highs and 2011 lows ,, this is a very heavy resistance area so a reversal from those levels is possible.<br /><br />2. Looking at the ES futures SPX ,, we hit the trendline from 2011 highs ,, again dow jones broke it and nadaq too,, so will SPX break it tomorrow ?? Time will tell<br /><br />3. As mentioned before I've got a major cycle starting from 19th January( tomorrow ) this should be a "high" in my book , and I still believe markets is in the forming of a major high in 2012 ,, honestly markets has just been moving slowly higher and it hurts of course a bit being underwater, but again markets havent been moving a lot last weeks..<br /><br />So all in all expecting a major top by tomorrow ( or its in today )<br /><br />Remember dow jones is very close to the 2011 highs , I believe we are in a BEAR market and this is just a very fast and violent bear market rally ,, where we will after this go to new lows and test October lows from 2011.<br /><br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />I'm going to have patience and hold ,, lets see how SPX reacts to the 1307 level but all in all ,, should be a top in especially by 19th ,, so will we gap up a little and then reverse down ? Time will tell. We have lots of techs earnings after thursday close and what I see on IBM and other techs some ugly charts forming ,, so careful on those.<br /><br />The 19th I've got a new cycle which means that a MAJOR HIGH should be in by this,, after this date the pessimism in market should increase and optimism should then decrease (this means VIX will begin to go up in a new trend)and markets down. So question is do we gap up and make the optimism peek 19th or did we top out and begin to reverse from 19th? Time will tell.<br /><br />VIX still hoovering at the bottom and I still believe VIX bottom is at those levels and will go way higher in 2012 ,, lets see if VIX can hold 20 tomorrow.<br /><br />For those who still hold shorts ,, have patience ! I know its painful to hold when markets creeping higher , but again its not a loss until you sell it.<br /><br />The weak hands will sell ,, but I'm still all in TVIX 26-27$ and TZA 27$ both underwater now,, holding all.<br /><br />Patience and this will reward YOU imo :-)Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-44227997219980182212012-01-18T06:58:00.006+00:002012-01-18T20:40:32.205+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfs_lRnnQJbHvKDZKFnpwJAvdO28H0m3kyg1jyi7tP_CCCqUAEES9ueW1pQpK7WNDVqRSpgCCUP82xQk3n2U6GgrgMnMttiFHvMAlq3FMDXUx9btHvBxU6GkXS5l75YOE1ibNsAfzL82w/s1600/12-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 114px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfs_lRnnQJbHvKDZKFnpwJAvdO28H0m3kyg1jyi7tP_CCCqUAEES9ueW1pQpK7WNDVqRSpgCCUP82xQk3n2U6GgrgMnMttiFHvMAlq3FMDXUx9btHvBxU6GkXS5l75YOE1ibNsAfzL82w/s320/12-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5699074689074691362" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrfMUwL61BqkKCRf7OLIfNMJc5Wm4kokF2Ayi0OvD5yJoaMRa54Tj6bwW5HTAjYag60orfB5IJw0tod-AW7Dw8pp-R8VNilxP0v0olS8FPrJQ16CQ7Ao8N7wLXdu8txxXAPq6VcIWz3l0/s1600/11-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 176px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrfMUwL61BqkKCRf7OLIfNMJc5Wm4kokF2Ayi0OvD5yJoaMRa54Tj6bwW5HTAjYag60orfB5IJw0tod-AW7Dw8pp-R8VNilxP0v0olS8FPrJQ16CQ7Ao8N7wLXdu8txxXAPq6VcIWz3l0/s320/11-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698868850530350034" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXhn0JTKKwF_90s68K3pWhco3lWMPeQCCVpAWAvoNXbQ90QrC_BeJUzynEdczi29bFCq0E3HdPV3taA6S89MGF2XQPSYcRLLSwOEObLhyoczLhv4Kf6ovmcNjO0qeqkmMaQvQ7mX1vwIg/s1600/10-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 286px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXhn0JTKKwF_90s68K3pWhco3lWMPeQCCVpAWAvoNXbQ90QrC_BeJUzynEdczi29bFCq0E3HdPV3taA6S89MGF2XQPSYcRLLSwOEObLhyoczLhv4Kf6ovmcNjO0qeqkmMaQvQ7mX1vwIg/s320/10-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698868370473221826" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg30slP2_eYvmXWbSSTjQKFXijUQ9TklMK8iNt8okeYEaZwW57dcgGjxYgawGcDDDuneC6IL42yj4u_ShixUdv-jF0E1xCmGuXONctxtKfKNoW5MX0Tmnh1JwXQA7hdMolFFiq4qJc0w-Y/s1600/10-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg30slP2_eYvmXWbSSTjQKFXijUQ9TklMK8iNt8okeYEaZwW57dcgGjxYgawGcDDDuneC6IL42yj4u_ShixUdv-jF0E1xCmGuXONctxtKfKNoW5MX0Tmnh1JwXQA7hdMolFFiq4qJc0w-Y/s320/10-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698865408022429026" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8xr1inytQ-PK6SBF8tSnnmSAkuZbQLGvS5MzokB8OJySkIbVLsdj2ziJZNYYIxkNX0Hz47yiUTbHaSLWDAPOVSMu_dnlQ1W7LM_9CNn4Kd9OQ-2_lD9724AofYozedq5e8x7aeFD7Mus/s1600/10-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8xr1inytQ-PK6SBF8tSnnmSAkuZbQLGvS5MzokB8OJySkIbVLsdj2ziJZNYYIxkNX0Hz47yiUTbHaSLWDAPOVSMu_dnlQ1W7LM_9CNn4Kd9OQ-2_lD9724AofYozedq5e8x7aeFD7Mus/s320/10-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698865332856927554" /></a><br />What is VERY interesting about yesterday is:<br /><br />1.First that the markets started with a gap up premarket 1.3% and ended near RED ,, so we had a major intraday reversal.<br /><br />2. Markets came above 1300 for the first time for a long long time ,, potential a bull trap with retailers going long and feeling "safe" to go long?<br /><br />3. AAII sentiment at 17% bears (all shorts covered now) and NYSE short interest at 7 years low,, this is crazy ,, its going to change very soon but I love it as it is one of the best scripts for another hard sell off coming...<br /><br />4. NYA chart is VERY interesting ,, because yesterday was the FIRST TIME it tried to test the MA200 on the daily chart since the crash last summer ,,, we made a little test below it and then reversed to the downside... excellent spot for inflection point.<br /><br />5. Remember the round numbers we had as I mentioned: SPX 1300 , NASDAQ 2400, DOW JONES 12.500 in all futures charts ,, will they hold ? Time will tell , but all in all I'm looking at this as a MAJOR top for 2012 and a great market decline is yet to come,, patience.<br /><br />6. Financials clearly broke down hard as I called to short XLF and financials last week when XLF was 14$ , said to short JPM and Citigroup and BAC all down a lot since then ,, and imo much more downside to come.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />All in all ,, yesterday looks very much like a reversal day to the downside ,, time will tell but it smells like a bull trap just above 1300 ,, I stay extreme heavy short markets currently and holding all TVIX/TZA , both underwater a little bit but remember , those ones moves FAST when they go up ,, so patience will be the key to your profit $$$$$$$$$<br /><br />Have a nice daySqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-4246970997365810442012-01-17T08:03:00.006+00:002012-01-17T08:58:17.324+00:00Market view SPX 1300, DOW 12.500 , NDX 2400<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-JWCZpmI34j09APIOfWz7FtIPHwW4as_5WI3hyzMZcnjMVCwBJZEjZI2rIqWTEJBDCFD8Prqzyr0B3ucQkEkQLtG9cHPFVnZZbqvHS3k3FhGZun6AYx7wuk-62Gy6a2e8V50cK4luDkw/s1600/2-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 114px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-JWCZpmI34j09APIOfWz7FtIPHwW4as_5WI3hyzMZcnjMVCwBJZEjZI2rIqWTEJBDCFD8Prqzyr0B3ucQkEkQLtG9cHPFVnZZbqvHS3k3FhGZun6AYx7wuk-62Gy6a2e8V50cK4luDkw/s320/2-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698522593764884402" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH73yEwYlOsPD1UyjsrvTHxYmiUnlEezoA_DQMhxs9xQehSr9SG7Cw-cI8v-54oJlac6sDsOgmbboouWOK8LiTvIov6Ks32J7xnDOWoqHndxMXIcFjbyh0IEwBlZOTI6cAniuu5sgj8Tk/s1600/9-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 183px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH73yEwYlOsPD1UyjsrvTHxYmiUnlEezoA_DQMhxs9xQehSr9SG7Cw-cI8v-54oJlac6sDsOgmbboouWOK8LiTvIov6Ks32J7xnDOWoqHndxMXIcFjbyh0IEwBlZOTI6cAniuu5sgj8Tk/s320/9-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698513936126269410" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirhc9Z51CoptR41uhgXNnVMhqiXbofS6uJDB6-jMxZ21_nqe2AcCAeMzVBGq5X5S5gw5eQ_YCDjiqAemwlvutNkaz-3oAMldPfGuas5w8HQdZ7kCqPhzvYHSjY-wterHBgjHoaqbLvXbo/s1600/9-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 280px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirhc9Z51CoptR41uhgXNnVMhqiXbofS6uJDB6-jMxZ21_nqe2AcCAeMzVBGq5X5S5gw5eQ_YCDjiqAemwlvutNkaz-3oAMldPfGuas5w8HQdZ7kCqPhzvYHSjY-wterHBgjHoaqbLvXbo/s320/9-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698513235108588610" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-p5B8mjJHuA1i-MLctmUCpsEQlaHGVOtNAOoW7909Empc6l_U7_CVXGerY9tDKm0H9426i__EIU-wqnFuCW6IwdtwBPmiNqj3zHN6e0x-FUg1rin_SH2Kp6m8TtevxlqeFBncsdbtHA8/s1600/9-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-p5B8mjJHuA1i-MLctmUCpsEQlaHGVOtNAOoW7909Empc6l_U7_CVXGerY9tDKm0H9426i__EIU-wqnFuCW6IwdtwBPmiNqj3zHN6e0x-FUg1rin_SH2Kp6m8TtevxlqeFBncsdbtHA8/s320/9-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698509848893671826" /></a><br />Markets right now in premarket gapping up 0.8%-1%.<br /><br />SPX at 1300 futures<br />Dow jones near 12.500<br />Nasdaq naer 2.400<br /><br />All indexes right now in the futures at some round numbers and levels ,, markets had 10 x downgrades and with Greece having major problems and could see a deffault soon,, you see a PERFECT example how manipulated markets is and how the banksters can run the futures higher.<br /><br />All in all ,, it seems to me like the banksters wants to test those round levels or the SPX 1307 fib retracement from 2011 highs to 2011 before pulling the plug.<br /><br />For me - I stay all in shorts and going to hold through the short term pain as I see this as a major top forming. I have the 19th on Thursday as reversal time and cycle so we might peek and then begin the bear market to new lows below the October lows imo.<br /><br /><br />Its quite funny as many people in November and December 2011 were shouting at me saying,, impossible for markets to see 1300+ and even 1270+ ,, I guess I were a bit too early but however I were pretty much right that markets easy could see those levels. Now people talking about all time highs and 1350-1450 and stuff ,, another perfect example on that not many see the markets could see below 1080 again which I think we will ,, so lets see again if we over next 1-2 months is going to see those levels. Dow jones already near the 2011 highs ,, and I still believe we are in a bear market which means we should not breach the 2011 highs but make a "lower high".<br /><br />Watch the SPX 1307 fib retracement and watch the futures 1300 SPX , 12.500 dow jones and 2400 on Nasdaq ,, all round numbers.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-18362224688583297202012-01-14T22:58:00.003+00:002012-01-16T07:12:37.308+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoOkJdOhgjzFMG91dtgfm8yF0uqWUC0b6RmUUVSJ1Gfpv__FAA2WXEwZ5oePV-fYcs6q6FDibhm2YLl7HHtbvvcrPMhpo4_REabw6OXI88G6b_Tl7M22-m2jO5NzFV53GQXmWDOKmIQzw/s1600/8-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 246px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoOkJdOhgjzFMG91dtgfm8yF0uqWUC0b6RmUUVSJ1Gfpv__FAA2WXEwZ5oePV-fYcs6q6FDibhm2YLl7HHtbvvcrPMhpo4_REabw6OXI88G6b_Tl7M22-m2jO5NzFV53GQXmWDOKmIQzw/s320/8-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5698124306069991362" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIcHCi_JKpLNvLHKDEOoneTrj7BzK6fcYhu09mHdK3MHXpP3KouYUdFumX-ndj5x2ibb3HBiIaWg5Lp74lm6TuGA34aWHfrc_hBvgEHsTWPvFhyGESp_UrqaTccmg_PoXVw7_8v3w46b8/s1600/7-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIcHCi_JKpLNvLHKDEOoneTrj7BzK6fcYhu09mHdK3MHXpP3KouYUdFumX-ndj5x2ibb3HBiIaWg5Lp74lm6TuGA34aWHfrc_hBvgEHsTWPvFhyGESp_UrqaTccmg_PoXVw7_8v3w46b8/s320/7-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5697629979507666018" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjz1rtgxe4ZkERvg3VQahpncdWS8mDV6nre8kNiP567BYVCnT2_rt1KsjsGHzkbjfuMGx-6m10g6D2guuQ7dy6wMYVthpGKtlT1SzBNMNdHk7pKTv1NWFtIwnDTzyy8HO9gRHajvP6iq4/s1600/7-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjz1rtgxe4ZkERvg3VQahpncdWS8mDV6nre8kNiP567BYVCnT2_rt1KsjsGHzkbjfuMGx-6m10g6D2guuQ7dy6wMYVthpGKtlT1SzBNMNdHk7pKTv1NWFtIwnDTzyy8HO9gRHajvP6iq4/s320/7-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5697629983240199586" /></a><br />Markets did get on Friday the downgrades from S&P , however all were just rumours and it got official after market close. I would not say that there were any kind of sell off or panic on this ,, maybe all were expected and then not much sell off,, however I think markets may react negative in europe on monday ,, and if so, then US will follow europe down at open Tuesday.<br /><br />All in all ,, I remain heavy short ,, the rally we have since October lows are now forming a MAJOR bearish rising wedge especially on the dow jones,, dont be a fool and buy into this - as I told people in early October ,, time to go long for a rally ,, right now only fools going long the markets after a move from 1070s to near 1300.<br /><br />We are imo NOT in a bull markets ,, and still in a bear market -- this means that dow jones would not make a new high and still make "lower highs" ,, where I think we will make a major lower high. <br /><br />So far dow jones still below the 12.500 area ,, trendline from the highs where I think it has topped ,, so far looking good for downside from here.<br /><br />Per my cycles I dont expect much either way right now ,, what I see is that from 19th January markets would make a trend change ,, which means we have peeked now and a trend change to the downside would occur. <br /><br />I expect over the next 3 months or so ,, that we are going to see some MASSIVE strikes in countries ,, as countries are going to have austerity measures which many people in the countries wont like. <br /><br />It seems to me that all markets needs to test the trendline from the highs ,, and on Friday morning Nasdaq did test it in the premarket ,, so this might be why markets has been waiting for ALL major indexes to test this line.<br /><br />Dow jones did it already a week ago ,, and been held below this line ,, <br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />All in all ,, I'm expecting some WEAKER Q4 results ,, which would weight on the markets + we still have the potential of Greek deffault. I expect over the coming months a lot more austerity measures and lots of massive strikes by the people will come.<br /><br />Markets is forming a major high , and we have been moving sideways for the last weeks ,, imo a major top forming since October lows.<br /><br />I have some cycles starting from 19th January which seems like a major trend change from an upward move ,, to begin a longer term downwar move. I'm being very patient and holding all my shorts ,, so patience will imo pay you out. 2012 is NOT going to be a good year for stock markets ,, but imo a very horrible year ,, worse than 2011. Be prepared and take advantage.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-12187068262781991702012-01-13T11:00:00.003+00:002012-01-13T11:08:29.651+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNaVDf3xPHI1uvgf6xW4gwqtlldEJQS2KDUrZs1rCfraWCkZagT04K1MACfxA3h-9b9mV2YOOTtqO04QZ6BfZD7M-2V1fFBTfYauM25bx56hsxGUqr2vgfC65MIrO_HPgKCvUP9M7lHxU/s1600/5-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNaVDf3xPHI1uvgf6xW4gwqtlldEJQS2KDUrZs1rCfraWCkZagT04K1MACfxA3h-9b9mV2YOOTtqO04QZ6BfZD7M-2V1fFBTfYauM25bx56hsxGUqr2vgfC65MIrO_HPgKCvUP9M7lHxU/s320/5-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5697071432078286418" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRmBTBTcW6ROl6_9dNwZC_kY-vJ3YAV-MfQUSDHIWfdcO4Ll5HhTWeiaVeVAiyUl9P186p0VgKoiPchz1nQrYxe5oP4eWUSdRO1X9iRaGF8lLTSK3Mm0poth2DNuRwvc1YOISOiW2kGV4/s1600/5-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 314px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRmBTBTcW6ROl6_9dNwZC_kY-vJ3YAV-MfQUSDHIWfdcO4Ll5HhTWeiaVeVAiyUl9P186p0VgKoiPchz1nQrYxe5oP4eWUSdRO1X9iRaGF8lLTSK3Mm0poth2DNuRwvc1YOISOiW2kGV4/s320/5-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5697071426546424770" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc4b7YJn9U6o0hAfGO6fBPS57QScrvtSQqGrCNcG8kCg0He_JpduCfjfzRQAqEuzk2ZLKbsVnKXkKrmGws45lyeSI8i-V1P7a9yrF2n5FqMxebq9rDoaBUdsFG_qgf6D0SOnmCysWZbuA/s1600/5-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 315px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc4b7YJn9U6o0hAfGO6fBPS57QScrvtSQqGrCNcG8kCg0He_JpduCfjfzRQAqEuzk2ZLKbsVnKXkKrmGws45lyeSI8i-V1P7a9yrF2n5FqMxebq9rDoaBUdsFG_qgf6D0SOnmCysWZbuA/s320/5-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5697071442920145586" /></a><br />Again markets had a pretty good reversal from yesterday morning ,, and then came back up as bulls bought the dip (Again) ,, people now think that bulls is going to buy the dips all the time now ,, so suddendly we are going to see a sharp reversal ,, as this wont last.<br /><br />Just in case we gap up higher ,, SPX have the last fibonacci retracement at 1307 right above us,, which is a huge resistance from 2011 top and 2011 low.<br /><br />All in all ,, markets still below 12.500 on dow and JPM is going to make a report.<br /><br />Remember JPM usually the strongest bank of them all ,, so bulls better hope they make fantastic results ,,, if not people would be very worried about the other earnings.<br /><br />I believe that financials is a great short with BAC, JPM, C at those levels now ,, as they over next weeks most likely will fall down hard.<br /><br />Obama is now asking congress to raise the debt ceiling again by 1.2 trillion ,, and the vote should take place next week,, (again going to get the politican theatre???)<br /><br />All in all , staying patience ,, think about it ,, SPX have moved up around 40-50 SPX points in 1 MONTH ! This is IMO extreme weak ,, and I tell you know that those 40-50 points could be erased in a few DAYS,,, but again all those days is making bulls more bullish as they "feel" that there is no end with this,, but as I said ,, I think an event is coming which will make the markets plunge very fast so I'm just waiting patient for this as I believe it will come before 30th January and the markets have so limited upside vs the downside.<br /><br />Look at the NYA chart pattern ,, possible with a MINI formation and now a MAJOR formation ? If this is true,, I tell you 2012 going to be a nasty year in stock markets..... and I think its very possible.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />SPX have a major fib retracement from 2011 highs to 2011 lows at 1307ish ,, watch this IN CASE we go higher...<br /><br />All in all upside again extreme limited ,, markets been moving up 40-50 SPX points over 1 whole month ,, which is very very weak and only 40 SPX points higher than I thought. Just wait when we get the flush in markets ,, those points will be taken out very quickly IMO...<br /><br />Holding all my shorts patiently TVIX and TZA ,, no worries with this - however I would like to see some concerns in markets going into the weekend which means I would like to see a red day here on Friday.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-54024952552170905872012-01-12T06:55:00.006+00:002012-01-12T07:22:02.065+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkwaOfErQg9BvciEF4-EjEON04Rwr8WXIpaBSEVpbkfAPLpOMvHlvej_hW3JN7DTFlU7c0VInlka6VpfzhY7hPn6bBWiWKQfe0Zi1fGB9_-4Qhryrn-prgNXv_xbXCk4aaVHfUv1h5fjE/s1600/6-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkwaOfErQg9BvciEF4-EjEON04Rwr8WXIpaBSEVpbkfAPLpOMvHlvej_hW3JN7DTFlU7c0VInlka6VpfzhY7hPn6bBWiWKQfe0Zi1fGB9_-4Qhryrn-prgNXv_xbXCk4aaVHfUv1h5fjE/s320/6-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696640093864682770" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic0pYLiADxPRRU77-t7FK85-pc8BSZuCfKdzUipVnQd5G72LiztZtIpfQVmbbXoGaau3fEGng8pWFydy8ZKrSmi8u__m7zfxEjISNqWpe7fAu_PnBShWkdsF-l4ceCYMP8JACk0gDAYuw/s1600/6-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic0pYLiADxPRRU77-t7FK85-pc8BSZuCfKdzUipVnQd5G72LiztZtIpfQVmbbXoGaau3fEGng8pWFydy8ZKrSmi8u__m7zfxEjISNqWpe7fAu_PnBShWkdsF-l4ceCYMP8JACk0gDAYuw/s320/6-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696638436155425026" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0NykIPQnayPe17SE8zDp1F6r36HBSdNTf1PeAvNH4e0evsLtmFnCGY05Dajy-vVCqok6WvpbtlYNVxzJqaSYgXbKFdM5QhQEWRht4rPbFwPn1-l6E8BMi-GJtCkF9ZWBtkYJcYDpDdKQ/s1600/6-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0NykIPQnayPe17SE8zDp1F6r36HBSdNTf1PeAvNH4e0evsLtmFnCGY05Dajy-vVCqok6WvpbtlYNVxzJqaSYgXbKFdM5QhQEWRht4rPbFwPn1-l6E8BMi-GJtCkF9ZWBtkYJcYDpDdKQ/s320/6-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696638438944500690" /></a><br />Pretty boring day as markets closed flat at 0% ,, nothing really changed.<br /><br />From my view a cycle start from YESTERDAY started ,, which suggested big price swings in markets.. we did 100% not get any swings yesterday ,,, so lets see if markets able to make some big movements end of this week.<br /><br />We now have italian and spanish bond auction ,, I think those things will weight on the markets those days + US economic data.<br /><br /><br />So if we look at things I would like markets to really start a sell off into this weekend with concerns ,, which would escelate into next week , that would be my best count on the markets right now.<br /><br />Dow jones again hit my 12.500 area trendline and 100% I would like this one to hold which is quite important.<br /><br />I believe after this move is done ,, which is a major move to upside then I think markets will sell off hard as reach new lows from October 2011..<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />My TVIX moved up 3% yesterday which were a good indicator that still with the markets flat ,, fear increased which is another good sign imo.<br /><br />VIX hit the 20 mark and bounced a little bit on wednesday.<br /><br />People telling me that VIX near 20 levels and markets wont sell off are 100% wrong. With the VIX this low ,, it has the best opportunity to begin to rise from here ,, which is bearish for markets. So what I still believe is a major move higher coming in VIX and major move lower in markets.<br /><br />Looking at the weekly dow jones it looks to me like a near perfect "rising wedge" + a right shoulder in a major topping head and shoulders formation which is extreme bearish -- the same goes on with OEX.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />Remain long TVIX and TZA 80% and 20% most heavy with the TVIX and I believe that concerns will come into markets before this weekend which would escalate into next week to the downside as I see some very bearish things forming 19-22th January. Italian and Spanish bond auctions today and tomorrow will be important on the calendar imo and could "spark" the ignite on the sell off starting.I have been pretty bullish BAC and other banks when traded at 5$ area ,, right now I see many banks topping out and I recommend to begin heavy shorting banks from this level.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-10886321514989397342012-01-11T06:53:00.003+00:002012-01-11T07:06:43.662+00:00Market view - Major top DOW JONES hit target 12.500<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHiKdILzdSwjNORlZOST3k9Cu1C5R9tf6e2jQDuXaGGBrs3F6j6jVtuaN4xH24TYmJfm8oAUR5dcl4nH884gzexUi2uoMkNNMKz-Cw0LnzcCoLhOnWCVt9yLmUPZ-k8mhuTPZcBKUkiOM/s1600/5-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 249px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHiKdILzdSwjNORlZOST3k9Cu1C5R9tf6e2jQDuXaGGBrs3F6j6jVtuaN4xH24TYmJfm8oAUR5dcl4nH884gzexUi2uoMkNNMKz-Cw0LnzcCoLhOnWCVt9yLmUPZ-k8mhuTPZcBKUkiOM/s320/5-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696267356715358866" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2y_oDlggBGJUktDu1rCILNFRU6w6tJDmpi8cAcHVeld7qFanoNaxJ_DFjEmgOW_kr7OzJTaVmymeN3ErKIyKlYEg2UYpb7Sx0s0Wj9luFrFoEzfJnbNHQRTv_gJb9ixM4eG-LckRyR50/s1600/5-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2y_oDlggBGJUktDu1rCILNFRU6w6tJDmpi8cAcHVeld7qFanoNaxJ_DFjEmgOW_kr7OzJTaVmymeN3ErKIyKlYEg2UYpb7Sx0s0Wj9luFrFoEzfJnbNHQRTv_gJb9ixM4eG-LckRyR50/s320/5-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696267362376556242" /></a><br />Markets did a nice gap up early ,, right back up and touched my intersection of 2 trendlines on dow jones at around 12.500 ,, made a little overshoot of it and came back and closed below the resistances ,, which is usually a very nice sign of reversal.<br /><br />So far its hard to say , but we did NOT touch 12.500 on Tuesday the 1st January ,, which was my top target for dow jones at 12.500,, but on Tuesday this week we actually reached this target + many other things.<br /><br />All in all ,, we had some great and round numbers yesterday:<br /><br />- COMPQ 2700<br />- SPX near 1300<br />- VXX at 30<br />- VIX at 20<br />- DOW JONES at 12.500<br /><br />All pretty numbers yesterday ,, you need to remember that many times major tops and bottoms often goes with specific round numbers.<br /><br />Again I would say 12.500 were the PERFECT spot for a major top yesterday to form,, and we hit that level ,, I will show you the chart.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />So all in all you should imo short as much as you can at those levels - I said it before,, and the markets has really not got any higher than it was last week -- but I really think its an amazing shorting opportunity for swing traders. People should know early February imo why I'm sayin this....<br /><br />Still heavy long TVIX and TZA ,, both underwater a bit ,, but no worries here ,, as I see it yesterday were a great place for a top in dow jones as it hit my target with the 2 trendlines perfectly drawn ,, which we came close to last Tuesday ,, but did not hit,, on Tuesday the 10th we hit both lines to the penny !Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-49677528971016259752012-01-10T06:38:00.007+00:002012-01-10T14:54:57.788+00:00Market view<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMi_0A67NP-tb-RHn94BOz8igaom_uI0LBYzZjymNInCgfFLhPufCiO8Tx3SiJ_HKbHNPHQRNWvcP58JHn55LJBJnnJiOpYD4kS9DMXSTpfMK83z4bGsyziJ49Q2QNk-AJA2thcS3bf-0/s1600/4-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 313px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMi_0A67NP-tb-RHn94BOz8igaom_uI0LBYzZjymNInCgfFLhPufCiO8Tx3SiJ_HKbHNPHQRNWvcP58JHn55LJBJnnJiOpYD4kS9DMXSTpfMK83z4bGsyziJ49Q2QNk-AJA2thcS3bf-0/s320/4-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696016940106563074" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK9eSnuWap8f1sGm-8r9I096qeUeopQWCXKyYR-ub7GQ3jg97c4XyC2rnpM8MbK4XPKZUHgku5u2wnu810I_Qpl9JahTeovcuUJCGheUOc8rPmzzkdilrPkvZnkpcgA3ra6d8mZEVtXso/s1600/3-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 317px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK9eSnuWap8f1sGm-8r9I096qeUeopQWCXKyYR-ub7GQ3jg97c4XyC2rnpM8MbK4XPKZUHgku5u2wnu810I_Qpl9JahTeovcuUJCGheUOc8rPmzzkdilrPkvZnkpcgA3ra6d8mZEVtXso/s320/3-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695916953684908834" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirJ2glxk-ayvGnZDziSWefsI1QbNad2CtufBrMKhhlf7TURbOsuS4e6D4Dh2440kyc_hHoiAH97NFt9cmYGIvMq45nQmvC55JEM1Lz6LKeHQn6X3t_nkNPxkh2kA0_CPCoWKp1gNyjAXU/s1600/3-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirJ2glxk-ayvGnZDziSWefsI1QbNad2CtufBrMKhhlf7TURbOsuS4e6D4Dh2440kyc_hHoiAH97NFt9cmYGIvMq45nQmvC55JEM1Lz6LKeHQn6X3t_nkNPxkh2kA0_CPCoWKp1gNyjAXU/s320/3-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695892167283502498" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijHU9CdEGxlemyBxiMnqMi2JCC8_uN9mgmLXrIbzWrCNEwjyDdyCCmXRbsiL6h8ko6Z2qvgkye9t3hKyJeN2MisH7c6XB0dpeYIG6KOb2ZE0ULhPyrlQuvKF_K6g8ZWWzxD2SfRpwUNdA/s1600/3-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 319px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijHU9CdEGxlemyBxiMnqMi2JCC8_uN9mgmLXrIbzWrCNEwjyDdyCCmXRbsiL6h8ko6Z2qvgkye9t3hKyJeN2MisH7c6XB0dpeYIG6KOb2ZE0ULhPyrlQuvKF_K6g8ZWWzxD2SfRpwUNdA/s320/3-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695891374728075394" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiomXO3vFREt000biwYh7GwsSGPOa9k8aErvBN9KkKZvqs9qtUBdRbxOmsEfZqmvVasZjy15Dd8eXLcnpi-Uhx_YoaB_M__1hEL5oblFtyUqllqqnrMYHXRbQqHexc_jvTVzGbi8nRQGJw/s1600/3-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiomXO3vFREt000biwYh7GwsSGPOa9k8aErvBN9KkKZvqs9qtUBdRbxOmsEfZqmvVasZjy15Dd8eXLcnpi-Uhx_YoaB_M__1hEL5oblFtyUqllqqnrMYHXRbQqHexc_jvTVzGbi8nRQGJw/s320/3-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695891375590016610" /></a><br />Well there is not so much to say as markets were pretty much flat again ,, choppy and VERY slowly day ,, no big moves yet...<br /><br />I still expect for this week a big move coming in the markets and gold and silver by mid this week (wednesday) and rest of week,, and according to the charts looks like silver and gold could go up on this.<br /><br /><br />The thing is ,, I dont think gold and silver will go down anymore like the markets - to me seems like gold and silver soon could turn out as "safe heavens" again for fear moving into markets again ,, and this is what I'm looking for.<br /><br />This week should be a week of concerns moving into next week.<br /><br />Why?<br /><br />We have Spain and Italian bond auctions Thursday and Friday this week , + we still have some looming EUROZONE Downgrades by SP and Fitch which comes out most likely before the 30th January EU summit meeting. Not only this ,, but right now we are moving into earnings season which I expect to be weaker than all the other quarterly data we had over the past years ,, I think the guidances will be much weaker than expected for the next quarters which could also drag down markets.<br /><br />Not only this ,, but Greece is not back into the headlines as they may deffault very soon , if they dont make a better haircut which I think will be very hard for them. So they could be weeks from a deffault as they wont get a new bailout tranche if they are not doing well.<br /><br /><br />Gold and Silver expecting a major move from tomorrow especially ,, so watch gold and silver and right now looks like inverse hs pattern with a potential breakout to upside.<br /><br />Ovearll earnings should be much weaker here in Q4 than other quarters and guidances should also be lowered ,, which could drag markets lower. Markets have NOT been able to rally in the BEST weeks of the year ,, markets has stayed pretty flat which means markets is tired of moving higher. So I believe all in all that a major top is in the forming still ,, we just need some kind of trigger for the sell off to start imo<br /><br />So there is a lot risk factors in the near term. According to the markets Dow Jones is still below the 12.500 and RUT (small caps) is still below MA200. The question is just ,, do we have a last push higher to test MA200 on daily chart and the trendline on dow jones from recent top ? Well who knows. At least I got a sell signal in AAPL daily chart today so a reversal in techs is most likely here ,, and if AAPL is starting to fall ,, so will markets most likely so thats an excellent sign<br /><br />I keep holding all my shorts ,, TVIX and TZA , no big moves yet ,, just slowly here and waiting patiently for both to spike higher soon.<br /><br />We still have a the bearish divergence in the markets with dow jones at the highs and SPX, NDX , RUT all lagging behind ,, if true this is usually very bearish for the markets. So right now I stay patiently short markets and going to at least hold out for this week and next week.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-17431397822363898172012-01-07T13:09:00.002+00:002012-01-07T13:32:22.057+00:00Market view<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc7i6jQCMnFYPdIHEIsHggrSlvrCSG8oHDUIijHr0fvw43pPg-DJnVNZWu0jV2wI8ND6FThaUu1z2GE-3ZDhdTwUnjOEwhhtsPekrLI7Ig2whuIS_2vrHtp-zsDNiRMkxlPdR9OFieUOM/s1600/4-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 314px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc7i6jQCMnFYPdIHEIsHggrSlvrCSG8oHDUIijHr0fvw43pPg-DJnVNZWu0jV2wI8ND6FThaUu1z2GE-3ZDhdTwUnjOEwhhtsPekrLI7Ig2whuIS_2vrHtp-zsDNiRMkxlPdR9OFieUOM/s320/4-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694882383909059346" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkpU-xY9R2Iz2UhZgO0tbDF9V70MtmtnRiP6gACPZ5hT_54_NEMJzUq1g_sqwtOvHn4JGtSKiruijLRR-qh0V2ULzK766llNvs7frvZa_u5-J6EVG7hbpdrDyByAraFqZHPcLQMML2WjE/s1600/4-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 314px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkpU-xY9R2Iz2UhZgO0tbDF9V70MtmtnRiP6gACPZ5hT_54_NEMJzUq1g_sqwtOvHn4JGtSKiruijLRR-qh0V2ULzK766llNvs7frvZa_u5-J6EVG7hbpdrDyByAraFqZHPcLQMML2WjE/s320/4-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694882380205844402" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17JMU7uJYIKw_FbtEW3utjjk70iFyLIOSBN0DXiqjr4sE6pZ72p2K6-hcI7URMImTkMu44Rku6kXCbQtqnyvu85gRoRJi3OtzYVQ7MDV7158TeE37StQdjYKh1998cUUCDrKDKX_CtAM/s1600/4-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 314px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17JMU7uJYIKw_FbtEW3utjjk70iFyLIOSBN0DXiqjr4sE6pZ72p2K6-hcI7URMImTkMu44Rku6kXCbQtqnyvu85gRoRJi3OtzYVQ7MDV7158TeE37StQdjYKh1998cUUCDrKDKX_CtAM/s320/4-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694882378397183330" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdCEHxqPBdSn6z817XIcAv8YK0MCoxSwjGYhKNr_4vwY5G0_4zlh66Ff91Sz2JMn7jEa6vr6m0QfQpVBYnAG4A4IN5YJZTZ_smCJ3JALr-mavfwGocRdqdbtDtyuZAqXQpUSykskG1JgY/s1600/4-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 312px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdCEHxqPBdSn6z817XIcAv8YK0MCoxSwjGYhKNr_4vwY5G0_4zlh66Ff91Sz2JMn7jEa6vr6m0QfQpVBYnAG4A4IN5YJZTZ_smCJ3JALr-mavfwGocRdqdbtDtyuZAqXQpUSykskG1JgY/s320/4-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694882396822202290" /></a><br />Markets did have another choppy day ,, but ended the day with a pretty nice sell off into close.<br /><br />The TVIX came actually down to my yearly support level which I think is going to hold , and which even may be the LOWS for 2012 in TVIX very possible.<br /><br />TVIX is making a big bullish falling wedge down to horizontal monthly support zone 25,, so what I did were to put rest of my cash into TVIX at 25$ and even sold some TZA just to get some TVIX down here.<br /><br />I think it would be very rare to see the TVIX go much lower.<br /><br />Dow jones have made its high on Tuesday this week as the new year started and I think it might be the top for this year in dow jones.<br /><br />Remember DOW JONES is at the HIGHEST level since October ,, and SPX and QQQ is NOT forming new highs ,, this is called a intermedaite bearish market divergence and I think its very bearish for the stock markets that another "major high" is due before the bear market should return.<br /><br />In reality markets has just been pretty sideways/ and slightly up last weeks ,, so not much have changed my mind ,, the same slowly stuff before a bigger move down coming.<br /><br /><br />I called the bottom in gold and silver and I believe that those bottoms is potential a major bottom and I dont see gold and silver fall much further down.<br /><br />I think this week especially on Wednesday we are going to see some wild swings , especially in precious metals, up or down,, time will tell - but as I think we are close to bottom or made the bottom in Gold and Silver ,, then I think they can move heavy to the upside,, but be prepared for anything.<br /><br />When TVIX hit 25$ on Friday I actually went all in with my cash ,, right now i'm sitting 80% in TVIX at the moment and only 20% in TZA ,, NO cash left ,, I think such opportunities like we see right now is the best risk/reward plays and perfect spot for bottom in TVIX and other short ETF's.<br /><br />So be greedy when other people in the other boat (no bears left nearly)<br /><br />So right now taking the advantage of this and if I'm going to hold for 2 more weeks ,, let it be ,, I see the upside limited and as I said , markets has not been moving higher but sideways this week.<br /><br /><br />For this upcomming week I think we could see some wild swings from Wednesday ,, have some cycles hitting there and on Monday could be the start of the decline we are looking for.<br /><br />Either way its getting close and next week again 19th-20th January is very bearish in my cycles ,, so get ready for some major things coming up.Expect the unexpected as some news could suddendly come out which gives fear in the markets.<br /><br />If you have earned some money over 2011 according to my bold calls - please make a donation thank you. I've been telling my oppinion all the time ,, sometimes a bit early ,, but at least prepared many of you the moves coming. No one can hit the "exact" top and bottom to the penny , but as long you get the overall big moves in hte markets you will do well , also here in 2012.<br /><br />So right now I remain extreme bearish and think we are at 2012 top.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-13548710752807156552012-01-05T23:17:00.005+00:002012-01-06T17:32:42.663+00:00Market view<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9fU-__lnma1dL6eh1WYkSve_qMVT_neYzDZfuH663Wp2FsRhVvbaYJeCCrgl5a98Qa9Fhtx_TDtuhOpanWyWRLWyF7_LBZ6ed1OWPZ9iAPAU1_NbtYYdXzYdUrv18zQmSaqwf5q7eB50/s1600/2-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 317px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9fU-__lnma1dL6eh1WYkSve_qMVT_neYzDZfuH663Wp2FsRhVvbaYJeCCrgl5a98Qa9Fhtx_TDtuhOpanWyWRLWyF7_LBZ6ed1OWPZ9iAPAU1_NbtYYdXzYdUrv18zQmSaqwf5q7eB50/s320/2-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694573235399801810" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo9nVrMlL3pVdCRPzau1rO7FDHNGMUZOmGDxd8zSmTveBfWm4GYLMV27zHy-a4878qOi-WZYuYMgZrHFfq5706lx_GVxh6FX1Zh_9oVR4kW85CyvR9tmZa3BVNaOyZ6TiKQwr8nWeZPKU/s1600/1-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo9nVrMlL3pVdCRPzau1rO7FDHNGMUZOmGDxd8zSmTveBfWm4GYLMV27zHy-a4878qOi-WZYuYMgZrHFfq5706lx_GVxh6FX1Zh_9oVR4kW85CyvR9tmZa3BVNaOyZ6TiKQwr8nWeZPKU/s320/1-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694299981222053554" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggXM3lfh_L07m1mFGuijywYFe8daDKGsvV6DgT4MgwxKFnIKhwc9oadBIMq0A0UZELk-bGS42ODMQC5oK3X50HrMyfllePMR0XWwK2luz-9ZdmZtinJxW6tlWUDh9mieJ-hT5yJU-zgcg/s1600/1-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 161px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggXM3lfh_L07m1mFGuijywYFe8daDKGsvV6DgT4MgwxKFnIKhwc9oadBIMq0A0UZELk-bGS42ODMQC5oK3X50HrMyfllePMR0XWwK2luz-9ZdmZtinJxW6tlWUDh9mieJ-hT5yJU-zgcg/s320/1-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694292529932863298" /></a><br />Another boring day,, first we got down to -0.8% on SPX ,, and then we rallied up to neutral/green slightly,, chop chop around,, markets is forming a top and a huge move is coming.<br /><br />I wont be making any big updates today as there is no reason for it,, everything still in place for a major rally.<br /><br />Bulls sentiment in the highest reading in a long long time,, usually very good sign for bears,, so that means all bears covered and now not many bulls left to buy as they are already IN the market either neutral/long.<br /><br />Overall get ready for a storm to come ,, its going to be WILD and UGLY and the markets will take out the lows of October 2011,, be prepared..<br /><br />I think this chart of TVIX will tell you most what you gotta know,,, watch out as the storm is brewing and VIX is about to have a major explode to upside.<br /><br /><br />US debt ceiling, Greece exit, China slowdown?, Spain, France eurozone downgrades ,, who knows lots of stuff can come up now...<br /><br />All in all , stay short now ,, keep accumulating on small rallies and I would not even be surprised it another "good" US data comes out and we pop to 1290s before major drop ! Either way ! LOAD up on shorts on every rallies from here as 1075 WILL be taken out next. The euro also got SMACKED down right as called on the other charts past days,,, more to come.. to downside.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-25320921471595967252012-01-05T06:48:00.004+00:002012-01-05T07:13:00.083+00:00Market view<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFW1Yafg-UxpKMzvqTU3zewzRnOV_temOBhcnF2sIpHmyCWQoBOfrQQrdXlFek4PuXbslPqeX2DvHHcI2tRGDIqfLwrFKq60XdeLZKvr5oX5ELTQ-zbJN2-2jvCo0bLSSndeQ8sslmUiM/s1600/2-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 269px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFW1Yafg-UxpKMzvqTU3zewzRnOV_temOBhcnF2sIpHmyCWQoBOfrQQrdXlFek4PuXbslPqeX2DvHHcI2tRGDIqfLwrFKq60XdeLZKvr5oX5ELTQ-zbJN2-2jvCo0bLSSndeQ8sslmUiM/s320/2-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694042485702113122" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA92g7a4-xz6e0Cq8esCnvKdaRFIkffqe-X5uBCaV-LZyJBheHB7mJrzQLHWC2fj_yNmTMv958b5Aj71zKglBT8aXABkrrC_29PRB4N23YvVH7_1QAog_ozQHVbUo8whV6FKGWaZsVCGk/s1600/2-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 253px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA92g7a4-xz6e0Cq8esCnvKdaRFIkffqe-X5uBCaV-LZyJBheHB7mJrzQLHWC2fj_yNmTMv958b5Aj71zKglBT8aXABkrrC_29PRB4N23YvVH7_1QAog_ozQHVbUo8whV6FKGWaZsVCGk/s320/2-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694039005047578866" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix2fo_3Vf-J4A2lx-OKHSla_-F7w6SyWJF0yZe6QXTb70dQHOaDV6dn_KGaSTmX1zhGZ5d1CEW-_JbQth9FMXghlYEQ6wOalUTpMdpAuOFCRFlDCX8x5J8UgJhNHf5XdxTebxMmmREyMY/s1600/2-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 253px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix2fo_3Vf-J4A2lx-OKHSla_-F7w6SyWJF0yZe6QXTb70dQHOaDV6dn_KGaSTmX1zhGZ5d1CEW-_JbQth9FMXghlYEQ6wOalUTpMdpAuOFCRFlDCX8x5J8UgJhNHf5XdxTebxMmmREyMY/s320/2-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694038999472838578" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTVZF6d2q7AbhYapaVvCIp0T8QfqGhM6xWA_I53MieBkWW7NJC-DbR5geQV-pSJvBgcjlU3ADfqHU7tzhSvoLkD5acjI-tM9PVMhaiSWK9VDvC6DVj-0kZKwv-LdH5ofLgYmYChCmhQ_I/s1600/2-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 248px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTVZF6d2q7AbhYapaVvCIp0T8QfqGhM6xWA_I53MieBkWW7NJC-DbR5geQV-pSJvBgcjlU3ADfqHU7tzhSvoLkD5acjI-tM9PVMhaiSWK9VDvC6DVj-0kZKwv-LdH5ofLgYmYChCmhQ_I/s320/2-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694039015153084530" /></a><br />Markets were pretty much flat yesterday and ended flat ,, so not much to say since the last posts really -- the euro however took a nice dip(as called on the "kiss of death") chart,, so right now looks good if euro could breakdown further.<br /><br />So read all the charts still the same.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />TZA got a daily chart buy signal yesterday which means that small caps may have turned down from here. Again the UPSIDE is very limited as this is forming a major top. The dow jones already made a new high since October but other indexes lagging big time ,, which is usually bearish.<br /><br />Small caps should be the ones who leads us up,, and they are still lagging a lot. I can hold shorts for weeks if so ,, as I see the downside much much bigger than the upside here. Can we pop to SPX 1292-1300 area ? Sure we can do this ,, but again its right above us ,, upside is LIMITED and downside is below 1100 and below the October lows. Suddendly we will get a sharp reversal 3% down or more,, so be ready for it.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-64881404015761602142012-01-04T06:54:00.003+00:002012-01-04T07:08:58.796+00:00Market view<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxzUhVeEi2jQ5_8exj4P27WbdPrA6-y6KimCFWUUBZIG1Ux76opslPdBtfztp8RqG4D9-sYtm9TmWQt3dTPDKqU3GXckgSZXPVnunRT4cCKNCqoclEUnnnoR43bsPkxH-9tpJtcphYR0o/s1600/1-5.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 248px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxzUhVeEi2jQ5_8exj4P27WbdPrA6-y6KimCFWUUBZIG1Ux76opslPdBtfztp8RqG4D9-sYtm9TmWQt3dTPDKqU3GXckgSZXPVnunRT4cCKNCqoclEUnnnoR43bsPkxH-9tpJtcphYR0o/s320/1-5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693670347162921858" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDHIgZAyPXy4H1LcgsbeI5opcTzwsVT-ZMJ8HkRZ6Wvj7BCDLtmtKYtsyktuJ715G-uTJ3gsrum2xPZwzb77tNka0FA5eM-maApyrq5NZv5beubM5B3Uy1qh00V0Hu31LMJU31RIuxq8U/s1600/1-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 319px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDHIgZAyPXy4H1LcgsbeI5opcTzwsVT-ZMJ8HkRZ6Wvj7BCDLtmtKYtsyktuJ715G-uTJ3gsrum2xPZwzb77tNka0FA5eM-maApyrq5NZv5beubM5B3Uy1qh00V0Hu31LMJU31RIuxq8U/s320/1-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693669730505521522" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcd9mvCgopuEGAhlIO3NjEVAJoiNleQ3qV2UVzq6F9UPng3SZkOyhMtL0icYU0dY89sB5vi1yYO8XstUjIM7SlKQN_lh7QvBpTr1aO2Fp2JWickfe0Xo-T_DcxY6M115r6yX3fX9QF1s/s1600/1-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 253px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcd9mvCgopuEGAhlIO3NjEVAJoiNleQ3qV2UVzq6F9UPng3SZkOyhMtL0icYU0dY89sB5vi1yYO8XstUjIM7SlKQN_lh7QvBpTr1aO2Fp2JWickfe0Xo-T_DcxY6M115r6yX3fX9QF1s/s320/1-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693669727077036946" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT3WMV8DpzYzT65vuV__QN-xY6qEntHXgC8rhP7FbaYV9pgg2eAG_nDFnPRBZGy7WIVDZOchHpLob4uZwGtsq-Bdiuqeyl85Xim1jUYXLE2gAtUETEmbVezuMIXm00jBAuOZrkFStAeUk/s1600/1-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 255px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT3WMV8DpzYzT65vuV__QN-xY6qEntHXgC8rhP7FbaYV9pgg2eAG_nDFnPRBZGy7WIVDZOchHpLob4uZwGtsq-Bdiuqeyl85Xim1jUYXLE2gAtUETEmbVezuMIXm00jBAuOZrkFStAeUk/s320/1-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693669723087623474" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJqhBa7T8l8KV0bJ2Pm6qa4XkfGF0mL3edovR4H0mHRfchTPmhg08sWOjCR92rxMftAtJTzqlQHg9Nz-FCkMv839oBVq74JGYAhzgNQBRv8OUXSvQGmY2TFykzBVcttp6FeXdhjeZKdcY/s1600/1-4.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJqhBa7T8l8KV0bJ2Pm6qa4XkfGF0mL3edovR4H0mHRfchTPmhg08sWOjCR92rxMftAtJTzqlQHg9Nz-FCkMv839oBVq74JGYAhzgNQBRv8OUXSvQGmY2TFykzBVcttp6FeXdhjeZKdcY/s320/1-4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693669737488844546" /></a><br />Tuesday were a great day to show many people that economic news dont have anything to do with the overall markets. Markets gapped up near 2% higher on no real good news but thats how the banksters play it ,, and looking by the charts we know WHY the did it,, to make the ES SPX hit 1280 to the penny which is an IMPORTANT trendline resistance on SPX.<br /><br />Not only this ,, but the dow jones also hit right near one of my favourite spots for a top,,, right near 12.500 which came pretty close as the highs ,, then we got a little sell off from this area until close.<br /><br />So all in all,, with the dow jones hitting some major trendlines + they gapped SPX futures to hit major upper trendline and got reversed from it + we have VIX on weekly buy signals ,, all charts really indicates that this rally has NO legs.<br /><br />Remember I believe we will take out October lows and believe that this is just a bear market rally,, the bear market will commence and we are going to see below 1000 on SPX this year.<br /><br />The time right now is NOT to buy long and go long ,, I hear targets of 1350-1400 again now ,, which is a good sign BECAUSE sentiment changing more bullish. Remember in early October all people were bearish and short? Was October a time to buy? YES ! Thats why I loaded long when everyone where short - now many people turned bullish and I'm extreme bearish here at the moment.<br /><br />So what would be great is a fat major reversal to then downside sometimes this week just as a nice rejection.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />Added: Added few more TZA on the dip yesterday for a swing ,, average 26.7 so underwater a bit ,, but can hold and TVIX holding from 29$ average. All major positions.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-890752089435192362012-01-03T11:30:00.009+00:002012-01-03T15:14:26.397+00:00Market view - Major top forming<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8hBntD9dIM9p3ciq-FGoY_T7Dhy3dOVuxexbYDyY4zMkv0rNkkfPuuDz3CHbJ5oOFb4lMHSHDdOGmJ17G2OFehcaEksvWmr5b19NNs7-uTS_kSLIoB-utVSiDKR83P9JTt66vRWoZfdw/s1600/100.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 315px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8hBntD9dIM9p3ciq-FGoY_T7Dhy3dOVuxexbYDyY4zMkv0rNkkfPuuDz3CHbJ5oOFb4lMHSHDdOGmJ17G2OFehcaEksvWmr5b19NNs7-uTS_kSLIoB-utVSiDKR83P9JTt66vRWoZfdw/s320/100.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693424285977678738" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX4I5GXbFnJ9n2vtHGNxpuf9T8uCLxuVIzL6LCmGQ3tpKa5lO-xPvY148TzaJ7S3M_8MJ-EGfQhMA_t0hYBFVh_aT6ZBJLIhGp6oJp2a8ouZqPnM9mRKP7p1bu4-H0AC5FyrY_VJoSrXk/s1600/1-6.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 116px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX4I5GXbFnJ9n2vtHGNxpuf9T8uCLxuVIzL6LCmGQ3tpKa5lO-xPvY148TzaJ7S3M_8MJ-EGfQhMA_t0hYBFVh_aT6ZBJLIhGp6oJp2a8ouZqPnM9mRKP7p1bu4-H0AC5FyrY_VJoSrXk/s320/1-6.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693377267324119506" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVe9V-8zZRnOi2NdqL7Wsf4lg9j0qsHkhcqpr4KrHoSgHHAOjBxH4L2EWZg6pRSq_lNBFw8Ws0CjimdbFjGwGfg7gffSMv01GRxdCfhDsnKPHxPdYqPK1w6dMg1a0bZXPz4PVpM1F_i2k/s1600/1-5.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 114px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVe9V-8zZRnOi2NdqL7Wsf4lg9j0qsHkhcqpr4KrHoSgHHAOjBxH4L2EWZg6pRSq_lNBFw8Ws0CjimdbFjGwGfg7gffSMv01GRxdCfhDsnKPHxPdYqPK1w6dMg1a0bZXPz4PVpM1F_i2k/s320/1-5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693376426770208674" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjly7uSgExOwUl4GMZPaKq4pdcA_s2djxbzWZURQTZ-ouz0vvUXPDd-IpSJuZgjqXPX0RFq9LgOolOtkC_VGYT-Fa05ypUHLrNRbeISZCl5-Xa54jaX54M12fejkuSkENeqVtq-y8Lw1Ow/s1600/1-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 121px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjly7uSgExOwUl4GMZPaKq4pdcA_s2djxbzWZURQTZ-ouz0vvUXPDd-IpSJuZgjqXPX0RFq9LgOolOtkC_VGYT-Fa05ypUHLrNRbeISZCl5-Xa54jaX54M12fejkuSkENeqVtq-y8Lw1Ow/s320/1-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693372599235820562" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT10ueaegV9UriYxuZEJxFBKCcCaL88rmoTViTonmPMMyeUDpqbxA9uVtyyQ4hcxZLj1gejhMz9RmCM8oKOqpP0bbZW9Mwsx7TEIGTDyYjOO1eMUrg_uuzIYtPzaQrf8rrQ3XEip0PZwQ/s1600/1-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 107px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT10ueaegV9UriYxuZEJxFBKCcCaL88rmoTViTonmPMMyeUDpqbxA9uVtyyQ4hcxZLj1gejhMz9RmCM8oKOqpP0bbZW9Mwsx7TEIGTDyYjOO1eMUrg_uuzIYtPzaQrf8rrQ3XEip0PZwQ/s320/1-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693368997710729458" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3foiDBG7l0TPhUE8DGbdKc1XcBpYqcMcr6zhHe8DDzOIivEEJgc4IFPtzrKxqhvIMq0eptRX3lvp66QhWGB2qjRtFmSiKVYf7wHLKVWPnzoc3TzMTOSyxYnMCXhlAcgizCAjmV8Zffk0/s1600/1-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 162px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3foiDBG7l0TPhUE8DGbdKc1XcBpYqcMcr6zhHe8DDzOIivEEJgc4IFPtzrKxqhvIMq0eptRX3lvp66QhWGB2qjRtFmSiKVYf7wHLKVWPnzoc3TzMTOSyxYnMCXhlAcgizCAjmV8Zffk0/s320/1-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693367389569018194" /></a><br />Just a very quick little update as the european markets rallied on low volume higher monday and therefore US markets catching up.<br /><br />The US markets and european markets is making a longer term major top in this area ,, you see the confluence of a backtest of neckline + a possible test soon of the trendline from the highs in dow jones. (Red circle) ,, this is the potential target before the major new leg down in markets will start ,, and it will get truly ugly here in 2012, especially later this year.<br /><br />Overall watch out for this area as they gap up markets higher around here with dow jones to new highs for the last months, but other indexes lagging. (Bearish)<br /><br />The euro making a bearish backtest ,, SPX futures testing the upper trendline perfect at 1280 ,, many things right now looks "toppy" lets see if this is not another major top on low volume pump as they want people be happy for the first trading day in US 2012.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-62116558289423570702011-12-30T10:01:00.002+00:002011-12-30T10:14:29.200+00:00Happy New year ! 2012<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCQX_jhkIdus1eALC_yjR2FWZx0IjAoYagMJ6gZ-yVuSpciEVn1xw3Y0Y95mUxDjlBTbl4FBxwMgC0MR5eduUN-8kUe6v64FxSAsIEumHkZvBT8MOzm_ItaVME4YGMSZ-uBPHjkg6mt64/s1600/16-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 315px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCQX_jhkIdus1eALC_yjR2FWZx0IjAoYagMJ6gZ-yVuSpciEVn1xw3Y0Y95mUxDjlBTbl4FBxwMgC0MR5eduUN-8kUe6v64FxSAsIEumHkZvBT8MOzm_ItaVME4YGMSZ-uBPHjkg6mt64/s320/16-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691862715462366066" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYiFE8nDYSmDmxTJ6jkJMeKN5g1Me6jOGheJjUn4jpU0O1ODGzktoVo5f7iJ_VQlbRu9VG5ZdeBtzfHpsP4CTrRaJRjLxy2iv2AnyRC_AYxDZRYsdwQLgre3FIEarpJg5XhCg4jG1Vug/s1600/16-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYiFE8nDYSmDmxTJ6jkJMeKN5g1Me6jOGheJjUn4jpU0O1ODGzktoVo5f7iJ_VQlbRu9VG5ZdeBtzfHpsP4CTrRaJRjLxy2iv2AnyRC_AYxDZRYsdwQLgre3FIEarpJg5XhCg4jG1Vug/s320/16-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691862717955054658" /></a><br />Happy new year to everyone ! I will start to wish EVERYONE OUT THERE a happy new year and wish you best of luck in everything in 2012 !<br /><br /><br />About the markets we had a little dead cat bounce imo to trap some more shorts in,, the big decline should be coming still. However we did NOT confirm the bearish engulfing pattern on Wednesday ,, so we need a CLOSE BELOW yesterdays lows to confirm this pattern to the downside- so this would mean that markets should soon start to sell off hard.<br /><br />We had a nice sell off on Wednesday ,, but this is nothing really especially when I'm looking for 1100 and below in January ,, so a bigger decline is about to come.<br /><br />What would be great is the markets to go down on Friday to make the WEEKLY chart on SPY a bearish engulfing pattern too ,, which would confirm more downside next week.<br /><br />Overall we are still near a major top ,, so still time to load up on shorts or puts imo as the bear market will return and we should see below 1075 lows in 2012 !<br /><br />My October 2011 lows predictions came true which was maybe my best call this year ,, to go long 1080 on SPX near the lows and said a year end rally would come.<br /><br />I'm in quite opposite direction now.... right now we have a LOT more optimism in markets than we had in early October where EVERYONE were short,, now people looking for 1500+ and stuff ,, which is the BEST INGREDIENT for a new hard sell off,, when people really dont think you get such a sell off. So if you are more bullish now than in early October ,, well THANK you - as this is the natural sentiment shift when markets moving higher ,, I'm going against the whole crowd and saying that we are about to see another major drop in markets below the October lows.<br /><br /><br /><br />PREDICTIONS FOR 2012 !<br /><br />My predictions for 2012 is that its going to be a WILD year ,, even WILDER than 2011 ,, up and down ,, huge moves so for a normal trader and investor ,, it should be horrible ,, but for swing traders like me it should be heaven,, as we try to trade all the up moves and down moves in markets. I believe that the 2nd half will be truly horrible in 2012 and the first half of 2012 will get better than second.<br /><br />I think the real ugly of this bear market will start by mid 2012 and then it will be no mercy for bulls ,, markets would just continue to move down in months imo.<br /><br />Gold and Silver should take out new highs in 2012 and I expect gold and silver to make a longer term bottom here soon. <br /><br /><br />Bottom line: I remain heavy short markets and long TVIX and TZA ,, you see its the day before new year,, they might try to hold markets up until then - but I expect the sell off to really start in January with possible some eurozone downgrades coming ,, who knows whats coming....Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-44798227264645111222011-12-29T10:06:00.003+00:002011-12-29T10:19:06.851+00:00Market view<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTryOdwWJKm1iI3fO9cLSmRgG144AW9NmIkIbNhyphenhyphenqJcOpQIWaceEKAhvdZKeSR0YD4gbZwRdzNhXvAIWtTtZH4vp5j7K_snUwXRqMzAh7hFKMFuAvCQRHLXcZcnOPzIf7eaFHnkibpB98/s1600/15-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 319px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTryOdwWJKm1iI3fO9cLSmRgG144AW9NmIkIbNhyphenhyphenqJcOpQIWaceEKAhvdZKeSR0YD4gbZwRdzNhXvAIWtTtZH4vp5j7K_snUwXRqMzAh7hFKMFuAvCQRHLXcZcnOPzIf7eaFHnkibpB98/s320/15-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691492840437189586" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzeAMhBhNjO0PCYLtLDIBeuJUwXVpZhL9N8ju91yqgkrY7AZKDaLZVwhrQSXSMoZuT-Jyi3kQGdSBDOtUB0oRPW1hlVPdDAIJxd_le1hoao_EfjTmUV-1gxYSposRjqr8KB-1Bl4S-6Wg/s1600/15-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 319px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzeAMhBhNjO0PCYLtLDIBeuJUwXVpZhL9N8ju91yqgkrY7AZKDaLZVwhrQSXSMoZuT-Jyi3kQGdSBDOtUB0oRPW1hlVPdDAIJxd_le1hoao_EfjTmUV-1gxYSposRjqr8KB-1Bl4S-6Wg/s320/15-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691492462683759794" /></a><br />What a very nice reversal we got and start of a sell off yesterday !<br /><br />Markets did not bounce a lot ,, but steady selling all the way into close with FXE(EURO) going down lower as expected. I believe eur/usd might be on the way to test 1.24-1.25 area.<br /><br />Overall I think this was the "start" of the sell off which is going to happend - and I think we are resuming our bear market. The DOW JONES made new highs ,, but SPX and NDX did not - this is called a bearish divergence in the dow jones theory. <br /><br />I got major sell signals in all indexes which means the trend has turned from UP to DOWN now -- so if we get any bounces from here,, they should be shortable as long SPX stays below 1265 area.<br /><br />We might even bounce to near this area,, and then begin next sell off - but either way ,, I remain heavy short and long TVIX and TZA which is up with amazing profits both now.<br /><br /><br />So not much to say other than I remain heavy long TVIX and TZA and not selling a single share right here as I think much more downside ahead and a test of 1100 not out of question in January.<br /><br />One thing which is very interesting is that SPY index and lots of other sectors made a "BEARISH ENGULFING" pattern which is usually one of the most bearish candlestick patterns out there. A RED close on Thursday will confirm this pattern - and then it could really get ugly if a red close today....Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-72206157371419766882011-12-28T10:58:00.002+00:002011-12-28T11:10:33.121+00:00Major top possible in<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEY2iW_lj9GscDCit4O56C0MZqoGG3UQ2VjHy2IzObc9hv0e6wPqmDqg4HVyrKL2sHygz1gHytEMdHW0lsalu4X_zUmjlyQgF1qYq0U6G66zgs2UnciEbF9V8EYt7LlY28n5qwmOjHF_w/s1600/4-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 314px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEY2iW_lj9GscDCit4O56C0MZqoGG3UQ2VjHy2IzObc9hv0e6wPqmDqg4HVyrKL2sHygz1gHytEMdHW0lsalu4X_zUmjlyQgF1qYq0U6G66zgs2UnciEbF9V8EYt7LlY28n5qwmOjHF_w/s320/4-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691134933354544898" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6mWmE8D_p6yhdifnOAyLUNSjLukojz1SQFwOOhS5Ky8boHvBjr4orq6kNl2fTENBHDppLgbAQuC4XVBcG7Y3z7CRiF-bmB-cl95f5z7DStc_HzpCCBKWyZw9Vdz120HzdrllqpZwgxG4/s1600/4-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6mWmE8D_p6yhdifnOAyLUNSjLukojz1SQFwOOhS5Ky8boHvBjr4orq6kNl2fTENBHDppLgbAQuC4XVBcG7Y3z7CRiF-bmB-cl95f5z7DStc_HzpCCBKWyZw9Vdz120HzdrllqpZwgxG4/s320/4-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691134931921551298" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmcLuDyvanC-WgDYRzbo9M41Jy3olSAPBxArnd07zK-thvHvtPWZTADmbeXvcEKX_dH2naaL0w_oBGBhj4DOkgm4f3JwEWhpiBKj1gJuTjc8uInMpJE2Je1BfBiVH_WMCaIg1Q0dehocQ/s1600/4-3.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 315px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmcLuDyvanC-WgDYRzbo9M41Jy3olSAPBxArnd07zK-thvHvtPWZTADmbeXvcEKX_dH2naaL0w_oBGBhj4DOkgm4f3JwEWhpiBKj1gJuTjc8uInMpJE2Je1BfBiVH_WMCaIg1Q0dehocQ/s320/4-3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5691134942919898866" /></a><br />I'm calling for a possible major top occuring at this moment as I see the highs from October lows 2011 where I called the bottom in markets ,, I think we are making the highs here - at least the dow jones is making a new high and is at highest level since October lows.<br /><br />Dow jones is currently above 12.300 and were at 10.500 area early October.<br /><br />We now have a bearish divergence in dow jones indexes DAILY chart which suggest we got a higher high , but the MACD decreased , which is not a bullish signal.<br /><br />So again here we have a possible intermediate trend call - where I'm going to call this a top ,, I were pretty spot on with my 1st. call since 1200 that markets would see 1270+ ,, but so far got in a little too early ,, however VIX and TVIX has been holding steady and remains in profits,, only TZA underwater a little bit.<br /><br />Either way ,, if we rally more I would short it heavy -- this is IMO the top and markets is rising in a major big bearish rising wedge ,, which should play out to the downside very soon.<br /><br />I'm calling for a possible big sell off or crash type of move like we saw in August ,, at least I see some SHARP sell off comin very soon.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br />I remain heavy long TZA and TVIX as I believe a major sell off is underway ,, RUT is still below MA200 and could test it before reversing ,, either way we are extreme close and today could be the start of the beginning of the sell off :-)<br /><br />Keep accumulate those shorts on the rips !Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5107469638764855160.post-20211295471972692552011-12-26T21:04:00.003+00:002011-12-26T21:12:08.461+00:00Market view<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNWLJVDYHg9s82W3we5XUnmxYvtqoE9kaUGJp5opwGfbBQfIZf69TQQizZpenlADPKS-FxpdXjzn043n76Ig2nd3g6BReeqBKJO1T468jVaI5mGSADxMxJsI6T1hO7TtsyxHoizfIKNDI/s1600/3-1.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 318px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNWLJVDYHg9s82W3we5XUnmxYvtqoE9kaUGJp5opwGfbBQfIZf69TQQizZpenlADPKS-FxpdXjzn043n76Ig2nd3g6BReeqBKJO1T468jVaI5mGSADxMxJsI6T1hO7TtsyxHoizfIKNDI/s320/3-1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5690547689074650290" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOnrbW-JrbxPU2tUatGLtBvgcwok5zA0UxkoSDaNs5OuBg4t2fGNWTy0CWbs1Hfe1cQjCsLED1SCHszbN0lS9GQUnT4_qWclKrsP1DJHfXojB_EMf45evmK2lLTorkcIlQ0WwpNTDAc2w/s1600/3-2.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 311px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOnrbW-JrbxPU2tUatGLtBvgcwok5zA0UxkoSDaNs5OuBg4t2fGNWTy0CWbs1Hfe1cQjCsLED1SCHszbN0lS9GQUnT4_qWclKrsP1DJHfXojB_EMf45evmK2lLTorkcIlQ0WwpNTDAc2w/s320/3-2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5690547694449119682" /></a><br />Markets did a little rally on Friday before Xmas which I think they tried to hold up so everyone is happy into Xmas !<br /><br />At least I were very happy , as the VIX kept moving higher (TVIX up 5%) on Friday as the markets were up too ,, so here you see the interesting correlation that actually the fear were not decreasing ,, but actually increased higher with the markets.<br /><br />According to my analysis we should get a very nice SELL OFF and reversal to the downside which could be sharp to the downside.<br /><br />We have 3 auctions , Tuesday France , Wednesday and Thursday Italian auction which could be in focus this week.<br /><br />However ,, we are still in holiday trading so maybe they will delay it to new year ,, but honestly I think the sell off could already start very early this week.<br /><br />My plan is to hold my swing trade TZA and TVIX as I think we could see below 1100 as a possibility over next weeks.<br /><br />The VIX backtested an important trendline which we broke out of this summer,, now a bullish backtest is very good for the VIX and I think a major pivot top in markets is here.<br /><br />Conclusion:<br /><br /><br />I remain heavy short markets via TZA and TVIX and holding for a swing trade, see you all in www.nwatrading.com trading room - hope everyone had a very nice christmas with the family. Also the pump into close on Friday look to me like a bull trap.Sqwiihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.com1