Market view

As expected markets headed lower for the first time ( more than -1% ) in like the last 6 months. Looks like the correction got started last week with the Egypt problems and markets heading down. Havent been able to update blog since Thursday , so sorry for that. Just a quick update before the markets opening - there is a great possiblity that we are going to backtest the broken trendline before heading lower. I expect early this week markets to move to the upside, but we should not see any high highs , before heading lower. Target for the correction is still 1180-1225 area, where we have some good support. Will update with charts by tomorrow.

Have a great day

Market view

As expected markets did move choppy up into FOMC and sideways yesterday , after FOMC it was quite a non event, but I expect a big decline to begin now. 1. FOMC a non event - no positive news and with no "better" news I expect the markets to react negative to this today and tomorrow.

Today is a very important day - looking at the Russels we are about to get the buy signal - today will be telling , if Russels moves up higher today - then we should get out of shorts and long small caps - but I still believe its a HS pattern but again if trend tells me to go long , better go long. Small caps already topped and I also believe that the Russel 8000 level is the top, now we have SPX 1300 and we have Dow 12.000. Everything good round numbers for a nice correction to begin. I believe that the correction should begin from today. I have a nice chart from ETF corner on the euro and we are RIGHT at resistance. Watch out for the dollar to plunge down from here 1.37ish and the dollar rally cause we still have the nice 30 min and 60 min bullish macd divergence. Markets made dow, spx and russel to some nice round numbers , psychology levels and that will be it- we will just get above them and then fast down and I expect us to start moving down sometimes today with the euro falling down and USD getting stronger.

SPX target by end of this week is still near 1250's SPX , so today should be telling. If we get a nice rally today I will get in long positions cause the trend telling me that today is either breakdown or breakout now...

But all in all - markets VERY similar to April 2010 top , choppy up and down like we saw last weeks - (top forming) we havent moved anything... from 1296 to 1270 , back up t0 1300 and then in 1290 zone again.......Same pattern , near FOMC day too - we know what happended 1 week after.................lets see if this is any different

Time will tell - have a nice day

Market view

As expected markets is very choppy over the last sessions and I dont expect markets to make a big move either UP or DOWN before after FOMC which is today. I think today should be very interesting and especially after the FOMC. Remember - the first move after 2:15 pm is often the "fake" move, that has been the case for the last several FOMC meetings. So I expect the same pattern today, if markets goes up after FOMC - then markets is likely to drop and if markets starts moving down, then we should move up. But all in all - I expect markets to make a nice sell off - probably not totday, but beginning today and then last over the next few days. Markets has found support near MA(20) and bounced back up, I expect us to reach that level in SPX again 1274 and then flush down below it and start the correction.

Russells is still very very weak and shows no signs yet of a bullish move up. But remember the stochastics is oversold now daily chart , but can stay oversold for WEEKS or months. Only thing you need to watch is if Russels can break above 790 level with good volume. If we see that I would recommend cover shorts, but until then the trend REMAINS down in the Russels and NO NEED to fight the short term trend. If Russels make a close above 790-792 and I would say for a confirmation 794 - then I would go long small caps cause the trend will then change.

Overall it looks pretty much like April top before flash crash - markets choppy as expected over last weeks up and down.. up down... but finally thats a toppinc process and then they will start to flush out. All other indexes had began to make a correction especially in Asia, and China and India is often leading now....

Still very bullish the dollar as it came to a nice retracement support now and should be ready for a big move up after FOMC. My target for SPX this week is 1250-1260 by Friday , so lets see if we can get near this level, and find some good support.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets closed a bit higher as expected. The DOW Jones made new highs and I expect us to see 12k or make a touch of it before a big major sell off in dow. The SPX is somewhere between and lagging a bit , and especially the same with Russels, which is very very weak. Last week we saw a -5% decline in Russell2000 and yesterday it only managed to bounce a few points. There is a possibility we make it to 50% fib retracement which is at 790-792 level. Until then the short term trend is down and I remain heavy in short. This is still a topping process and you can really see how choppy markets is. I expects markets to be in this area , until FOMC this week and after there I think we will get a major sell off. I still believe 1180-1220 is a good support level and I would love to see 1180, but there is also a possibility that we will go all the way below 1000 SPX.

The monthly chart of SPX made a bearish harami which we made after a big run up in stocks, that is very bearish. The QQQQ weekly chart made a bearish engulfing pattern and the US Dollar had its pullback from its lows in november. Now the dollar is making a higher low which could be seen as a wave 2 down before a sharp wave 3 up in the dollar. On 30 min and 60 min chart we also have a bullish divergence in the dollar indicating a major rally is underway...

But again - until the Russels cant manage to breakout above 790-792 then the short term trend is down and no need to fight against it. Time will tell...

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets keeps falling down slowly and actually SPX got a confirmed SELL signal yesterday at breakdown below 1280. For now I will be looking for a probably push up to 1280-1285 before next move down , and we have a possible HS pattern. But overall the trend turned from UP to DOWN and the Russels is sitting on neckline about to breakdown further from HS pattern. This could get pretty ugly either today or early next week after option expiration day. So for now keep holding your shorts I'm still looking for 1150-1180 area, but my first downside target is 1220-1225 area where we have some good support. Either way , the trend turned down and we need a push and breakout above 1290 SPX before I think we have ANY chance to breakout and take out new highs. I think SPX will have lots of problems just breaking above 1285 and dont think we will move above this level. So what I am expecting for today is a possible gap up - and then flush down again or they will hold it neutral up today around 1280-1285 and then flush it down next week.

Happy Trading

Market view

Woooah first time in yeeeears it feels like that markets had a bigger red close......
What I found interesting was the Russels and Financials had lots of weakness, and the russels bottomed today RIGHT at the BIG support since the lows from September 2010. I promise you - this will either be DO or DIE time for markets and especially russels, cause we are either bouncing big up from this support again .... or a big flush breakdown. From the weekend I called the markets up tuesday and we went up tuesday and then yesterday I called for a neutral or green opening and then flush. Wooah we got it and all our targets to the upside was met. Dow jones 11.860 , QQQQ 57.22 my target (hit 57.21) and SMH hit targets. So overall I think we are ready to breakdown and flush now. What I find interesting is that XLF and RUT as charted got DAILY sell signals both of them today. I went heavy long TZA 14.8 and we closed above that level. We might have a nice big bounce tomorrow and hold us up until option expirations friday, but as I got daily sell signals on the "leading indexes" which is small caps and financials, then I took a big short position. SPX, QQQQ and Dow jones did NOT get any daily sell signals and thats why we have not confirmed the move down and trend change yet. But we are right at a moment where we are either going to have a big reversal here which I also expected should happend. Time will tell, I need a close SPX below 1280 before CONFIRMATION and bearish signal - we closed 1282... so all in all, tomorrow should tell us a lot. Out of all long positions and in shorts now , took some profits 15.3 in TZA before close as I think there is a good posibility I can grab them near 14.8 tomorrow again, but time will tell....

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets up few points today grinding slowly higher with AAPL taking a big hit AAPL earnings afterhours awesome , but most of the gains is already included so its most likely a sell the news event. Overall I called the move in markets right that we should get a last push up here Tuesday , and I think we are very close to a major top ( or at least a correction comming ). I was looking for QQQQ to reach 57.22 , we got 57.21 , very close and the SMH got a bit below 35 which I has been looking for before a big drop. Everything is moving as it shoud and I expect tomorrow a Neutral opening/little gap up , but after all the QQQQ reached target and the SMH reached a long term trendline, looks at charts. So overall we may just flush down hard here, we have clearly 5 waves up from bottom so that is also fulfilled. BUT again we may also move sideways/up until option expiration friday. Overall my technical signals is still on BUY and thats why until now we can still expect markets to move to 1300-1303 short term until we see otherwise. Just telling all that we are at some VERY interesting points now , could also be a massive HS in forming and a huge rising bearish wedge in markets since the bottom this summer. Overall I wont get ANY bearish technical signals until SPX breaks below 1280, so for the most strict traders out there - wait markets out until SPX breaks support 1280 area, if we see a break below 1280 near term, thats the first big SELL signal that the trend has changed. Overall we could see easy below 1280 if we get a nice flush after these interesting targets met, but trend remains UP until proven otherwise. But I am expecting a little gap up tomorrow or neutral opening and then flush down. Time will tell...

Have a nice day !

Market veiw

Target met with the SPX 1291 pivot point for markets. There is a a possibility that we could reach 1303 or 1313 SPX if we move higher next week, but current VIX and CPC is telling us dont to expect that. But all in all we have not got any kind of sell signals, so the trend remains up and on a buy signal and until then the next upside targets is 1303 and 1313 SPX.

Seasonality also say that from mid January until end of January its usually bearish for markets. The VIX did close below its lower bollinger band on daily chart with the bollinger bands still very very tight, if we get a confirmation and sell signal on tuesday - that would mean that the VIX should spike up from the lower bollinger band in a good move to the upside.

So until my mechanical trading system havent made any sell signals yet, but we are in some very very hard resistance area 1291-1303 then we could top anyday. The question is now - how low will we go ? Will it be a pullback/correction or will it be start of P3 ( the most ugly wave down ) which should crash all the markets ? Time will tell us , only thing I can say , lets follow the trend and the trend is still short term bullish, but there are so many signs, and been so many signs for weeks with sentiments and everything that you should be plain stupid going long for swing plays (other than just scalping) at this moment.

We will get a sell signal on the daily chart if SPX on tuesday will get below 1277. Until then the SPX trend remains up, but if we see a hard move down below 1277 that would trigger a sell signal.

I still have a target of QQQQ 57.22 and SMH near 35, (look how much SMH did rally today , just to reach that trendline on tuesday. All in all , I expect markets to move higher on tuesday to get the last push where QQQQ will hit 57.22(QQQQ is now 57) and SMH 34.41 ( should hit 35 or right below 35 ) and after hitting these targets on tuesday I expect a big reversal to happend which should take us lower to 1150-1180 over next 3-4 weeks.

Have a nice weekend

Market view

Markets been consolidated a bit Thursday and another BORING day was there. Statistics say that we have not been below MA(10) for the last 3 MONTHS, thats crazy and so manipulated, and its true. Markets IS manipulated more than never and more obvious than before. Ben Bernanke asset bubble is in place and you know what - its very similar to the dot.com bubble and you know the story after the move up.... this is no different , this bubble is just even bigger. So a more hard crash WILL come. I am not saying we will get it now - but overall we should see a crash this year, we might get the pullback/correction , then move higher again until March/April and then have a big drop. But again our signals have not got any sell signals and we may reach 1291 today before a big drop. Time will tell , but wait for markets to drop some more than just a few points. Wait for a day where the markets is down more than -1% or so to go short, cause the markets will rise until then.

Semiconductors may top at 35 ( huge fib retracement from monthly chart and lots of trendlines from past tops around there) Thats a few more points up from where we are now...

QQQQ 57.22 is a bif fib retracement resistance on monthly chart. QQQQ is now 56.575, very very close

Overall still believe the correction/pullback will come to 1150-1180 area. Take a look at the system , when the EMA(3) crosses BELOW MA(10) thats YOUR signal to go SHORT. Right now its still on BUY and havent been on sell since 1st December. A close right now below 1273 SPX will most likely trigger a SELL signal on the model, but we need to see a close BELOW that level.

Thats 100 points from here..



Take a look at the VIX, the bollinger bands is very tight now which shows a BIG move is comming soon....very soon....

Good luck to all

Market view

Wow - market sentiment is still at extreme and extreme bullish. Markets will have a correction or a crash comming with this sentiment it cant stay down here for long thats for sure. Everytime the markets has been this bullish on equities we had a correction or sell off. Last time was may 2010 (right before flash crash and big move down to 1010 SPX. Lets see how low we are going this time. Overall I still believe 1150 is a good target for a correction.

If this is not a major top, cause it can very well be a major top - then I think we move to 1150 SPX level and then rally up again. But if this is a major top it could start with a big flush down very soon. Remember the dot.com bubble in 2000 the markets SPIKED up huge 2-3 days with near 200-300 points in dow jones to make the overthrow up. After that the markets fell from near 12k to 7k in dow jones...... so dont come and tell me that markets cant fall a lot here. The put/call ratio tells us we should short short short all we can now. Its only short covering which is making the markets go higher here now , not big boys buying this rally but selling the rally now in big blocks where dumb money going long.

All in all , markets may push up to 1291 SPX and top there today or so before the big drop.

Have a nice day

Market view

Well not much to add since last posts - markets still kinda flat moving up 0.2-0.3% up , very slowly grinding and very choppy up and day. Seeing big blocks of sells intraday which tells me someone unloading big blocks up here before a flush. Still in a big bearish rising wedge which should breakdown soon. Yesterday we got the fib cluster 11th January which gives major major reversals in markets. So +/- a few days we should see a dramatic reversal. This could happend any day and I would expect it to happend BEFORE the weekend.

Overall the NYA is a lot weaker than SPX and already broke down with a backtest here soon, so watching this carefully. I have not got a BEARISH SELL signal yet on the daily chart but I am close to get it, below 1260 on SPX or so will confirm the sell signal in markets.

I got long TIV yesterday 0.48 little small cap with good news and PR, undervalued and nice chart.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets getting lots of sell blocks over the last days which indicates that smart money is selling big blocks and buying in shorts here before a nice drop. TZA had its highet volume yesterday ever and I saw some nice money going into TZA. Overall the SPX is about to get the daily sell signal and the Nasdaq is very tight and in the rising wedge with a big negative divergence. VIX moved up huge at called with the inverse HS pattern and the dollar is still strong.

Overall McHugh have a cluster fib date TODAY 11th January. Last cluster fib date was 26th October 2010 which was BEFORE this massive rally. Big reversals often occures near these dates +/- a day. So most likely this is a major top before a nice correction or this might also be a top for the next years. All in all its hard to say - I think we could see some very nice action to the downside soon with the fib cluster date today so many signs showing we should head down lower. The Russels already gave a daily SELL signal on Friday and I think overall markets will follow. China and India and Europe is breaking down further with the BDI very weak too - all signs pointing down. Well then we might just go up ? Overall just follow the price and trend which is up , but just turned from up to down in the very short term (especially in Russels)

Today is a fibonacci cluster 11th January - which reflects that a major major reversal should be in hand +/- af few days. At the moment it looks like we are near a major top and a big move to the downside should come. Also note that statistics tells us when the first week trading days in January is green - then from mid to late January markets has seen declines above -5%.

But all in all - I recommend to just follow the price/action and short term trend. I had a sell signal on Russels on friday and very close to get a sell signal on SPX (if we trade below 1260) today , then the sell signal would occur.

1. Note the high bullish sentiment which is opposite as what is was at 2009 March lows.
2. The VIX at extremely lows forming a inverse HS pattern 30 min chart and breaking out higher
3. The dollar is getting close to breakout and is in a wave 3 up most likely ( target 84 short term)
4. Markets is overbought both on daily and weekly charts and has been it for weeks now
5. Markets breath is very weak , regarding that markets continue to move higher , but some big negative divergences is in plance on the daily charts.
6. Insiders has been selling out so much as they have never did before.(But still did it for months)
7. If markets is about to run up higher - markets needs a healthy pullback to neutralize the indicators and stuff and make the bullish sentiment fast bearish again(then we might go to 1300-1400)

All in all - sell signal triggered in Russels on Friday and is about to get the sell signal in SPX below 1260, so a break near that level would be a great shorting opportunity - most likely stay in cash now , follow the short term trend.

Steve Sjuggerud which called the March 2009 lows says in his recent letter on dailywealth that markets is now complete opposite as what it was march 2009 , thats very scary cause people are getting so greedy now , so its time to take the money off the table and be cash or go short.

Robert McHugh had a phi mate date turn 6th January ( top until now was 5th January ) and a big fibonacci cluster date at 11th January today. Last cluster was 26th October 2010 which was right before the major rally we had over last months). In his latest analysis he is saying that the move from 1010 was a C move up to complete wave B , before a nasty wave C down should occur from now, anytime.

Just saying....lots of things pointing down at the moment.

Good luck hope you like this

Have a nice day everyone

Market view

Markets been moving sideways mostly for the whole week, not much to add out there and I think a topping is still in process. Overall the markets is still opposite as what it was at 2009 March where everyone was fearfur, now everyone is bullish and not many people thinking markets can go down. But literally - we should have a nice correction beginning from this week. Markets made a WEEKLY doji (weekly chart) which could be a longer term trend reversal. The trend will be confirmed if next week closes down, and I believe this comming week we will see a lot of redness. We should see problems with Portugal and other EU contries and markets should decline. Also take a look at India index, which has been sold off a lot and China too (big divergence) between these countries and markets in the US which has only gone up. China and India is often leading other markets so that should also be a sign that we should see a sharp sell off from this week.

I believe 1150-1180 is a good "spot" for a sell off , and we should see this level in late January over next weeks.

The VIX has made a very clear and nice inverse HS pattern , where the right "shoulder is in" so looking for a sharp move up in the VIX this comming week.

RSI(14) on INDEXES is above 70 , and every single time we have been up here, there has been a sell off or correction at least 7 days after. This will be no exception imo !


The dollar has been moving up nicely and I expect us to see 84 in the dollar soon.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets just been moving sideways for some weeks now and kinda neutral with small caps being on fire over past 1 month. Overall the small caps has been moved back down more than overall markets which is bearish and the same with IYR reit index - which made a bearish engulfing some days ago and confirmed it. Overall markets still at extremes of extremes when looking at overbought conditions, both on daily weekly and monthly now. So many BEARISH divergences and we can also count 5 waves up from bototm. A correction is at least comming soon and will probably start next week. The markets is making a doji reversal right now on the WEEKLY chart, which is often a reversal bar.

Target for the correction is still in 1150-1180 area , but price/action should tell us over next 2 weeks how low we will go. If very low volume, just creeping lower, then we might only go to 1200, but if we get heavy selling with volume we might hit target and maybe lower.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets is still in a topping process at the moment , and dont expects much higher gains. We can clearly count 5 waves up from july low and 5 waves up from December low. So everything in place for a major top is forming. I think we have a topping process over last 1 month now from 1250-1280 level where we will chop up and back. But I think the process is done or VERY close to get its big move down where I expect markets to go at least to 1180 SPX. Thats near 100 SPX points from here and most likely lower. Russels already about to roll over, but agian, wait for a confirmation move down in markets - because what markets has been done over last 4 months they are truly so manipulated, but it cant stay that for long. So it has to give soon and I still believe that we will see the move down beginning now and until end of January. So watch out and take profits if you have.

Market view

Well all in all - there was some very interesting things tuesday. The markets where quite flat - but something which I think was very interesting was gold, silver and the small caps (russels) were down a lot and had some nice impulsive moves down. If they are a sign for overall markets, then we should begin the decline today or very soon. I believe that we will see below 1200 on SPX in January and I believe that we are able to go to 1150-1180. I havent changed my mind and this target should be reached sometimes by end of January. We can clearly see that we have 5 waves up , so a major top could be in, but this could also be a start of a wave 4 down before another wave 5 up. Either way, both counts expects a good correction or move down, so thats why its good to stay short at these levels. I still think that last weeks is a "topping" process before a big move down........lets see

Have a nice day

Market view

Well not that much to add - the markets has continued drifting higher and is still in an extremely overbought condition with ISEE index above 300 and put/call ratios telling that downside should come. However markets been ignoring everything. What I learned is to wait for markets to confirm a move down in markets before making any entrys, but for now I am stuck in shorts and I still believe a pullback is comming at least to 1180 area. Time will tell if we are going to see 1291 SPX before any move down , but all I can say that everything is still pointing down cause we are at extremes of extremes in overbought conditions (I know we can stay here like we have done last 2 weeks). But if technical analysis works then its much more likely we are going to have a move down near term with everything so overbought.....

Have a nice day