Market veiw

Target met with the SPX 1291 pivot point for markets. There is a a possibility that we could reach 1303 or 1313 SPX if we move higher next week, but current VIX and CPC is telling us dont to expect that. But all in all we have not got any kind of sell signals, so the trend remains up and on a buy signal and until then the next upside targets is 1303 and 1313 SPX.

Seasonality also say that from mid January until end of January its usually bearish for markets. The VIX did close below its lower bollinger band on daily chart with the bollinger bands still very very tight, if we get a confirmation and sell signal on tuesday - that would mean that the VIX should spike up from the lower bollinger band in a good move to the upside.

So until my mechanical trading system havent made any sell signals yet, but we are in some very very hard resistance area 1291-1303 then we could top anyday. The question is now - how low will we go ? Will it be a pullback/correction or will it be start of P3 ( the most ugly wave down ) which should crash all the markets ? Time will tell us , only thing I can say , lets follow the trend and the trend is still short term bullish, but there are so many signs, and been so many signs for weeks with sentiments and everything that you should be plain stupid going long for swing plays (other than just scalping) at this moment.

We will get a sell signal on the daily chart if SPX on tuesday will get below 1277. Until then the SPX trend remains up, but if we see a hard move down below 1277 that would trigger a sell signal.

I still have a target of QQQQ 57.22 and SMH near 35, (look how much SMH did rally today , just to reach that trendline on tuesday. All in all , I expect markets to move higher on tuesday to get the last push where QQQQ will hit 57.22(QQQQ is now 57) and SMH 34.41 ( should hit 35 or right below 35 ) and after hitting these targets on tuesday I expect a big reversal to happend which should take us lower to 1150-1180 over next 3-4 weeks.

Have a nice weekend