Market view

Not much to say - look at the past week, just SIDEWAYS, up and down choppy slowly and boring. As I said before we need a trigger and the trigger will be THIS week. I am very confident that we will have a major big move either up or down this week, and I believe it will be a big fat move down. We have the QEII , unemployment numbers, ISM and lots of great economic data. This will be an explosive week, so be prepared!

The markets is very close to a breakdown and the same with the financials. AAPL is about to breakdown too and AAPL will take overall markets with it.

The weekly chart looks great and a big nice fat red engulfing candle this week would look excellent to the weekly chart.

Fed Easing to Signify End of Bull Market, Gross Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-27/fed-easing-likely-to-mark-end-of-30-year-bull-market-for-bonds-gross-says.html

Insider sales the highest ever tracked at the moment... do insiders know anything better than we do??

The fear is that QE2 which would originally look like the love boat, but might actually turn out to be the Titanic

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1628213854&play=1

Well have a nice day and lets be prepared!

Still 100% short and holding!

Market view

Well yesterday another reversal bar of reversal of reversal, often indicating a top.

Today Nikkei down -1.7% lets see if today with the GDP numbers will start triggering the sell off... I expect EITHER today and IF not today on those numbers , then we must wait for QEII next week, which EVERYONE is waiting for...so our time will come.

The NYSE Summation index got a BEARISH SELL signal 28th October 2010 which was yesterday, lets see if that is a confirmation that markets will go down over the short term.

NYAD summation index gave us SELL signal 19th October a bit earlier.

The NYAD summation index are getting some acceleration to the downside whch is BULLISH if you are a BEAR !

I wanna get attention to you, that the bank index DJUSFN is VERY VERY close to a MAJOR MAJOR huge breakdown. A big crash in financials are comming here with right shoulders forming in a huge diamond pattern on weekly chart, which was the same before crash 07-08. Take in mind, why are smart guys shorting markets more than ever right now on NASDAQ ? They know a lot more than we do. Insiders have NEVER been selling more than they have before......the buy vs sell ratio is EXTREME to the sell side...

Dont be fooled, lots of people say dont fight the fed, but you will be SCREWED up big time when we get the major crash and its comming. Trust me I have been early, but other people been calling for crash from mid 09 and start 2010, I am maybe 1 month too early, but I can take it ! I still believe a MAJOR MAJOR move down is comming and it is right around the corner. QEII will at least trigger it. I went all in shorts at SPX 1160 and I am underwater - YES! I can take it just with some patience and holding I know I will be fine. Everything points to a big crash comming, but we just need to screw all the shorts out and only think bullish......which theyve done pretty well.

When markets come back to REALITY we will CRASH hard and I still believe you will be VERY rich if shorting markets from here. No one can predict markets like on the DAY and sometimes you are lucky to get the exact tops and bottoms, but you need to look at your charts and lots of lots of people have been screwed and didnt think we will go up as we did here. But afterall I really love using the summation indexes cause they are right 80% of the time I will say, and right now NYSE and NYAD is now confirming each other and FLASHING SELL signal.

Lets see today, look at the financial index, its either going to have a big breakout or big breakdown here, take your choice. I am confident we breakdown hard.

Have a nice day

Market view

Yesterday we got a little slowly day, first of all down and then rebound up from trendline. But the overall picture still the same, we are in a topping process before the crash, but we really need a good trigger to start sell off. What I think is that we are waiting for Friday Q3 GDP numbers. Most people are just looking forward for next week with QEII but thats also the biggest news near term, but Q3 GDP is also very important. So lets see tomorrow what will happended, today I think we just stay a bit sideways up probably cause POMO action.....

Still very overextened , the summation index still on SELL signal since 19th october, so no reason to buy anything, but only short markets.

I am still 100% short, a bit boring lately, but patience will pay you off here imo.

The MACD daily chart still moving down, weekly chart VIX oversold and weekly chart on dollar about to rally. Markets weekly chart overbought and about to go down.

We got a bearish hanging man candle yesterday, lets see if we can get a confirmation of this.

Markets still below MA(200) on the WEEKLY chart which is at 1194 on SPX , so as long we are BELOW this area, no reason to get happy, still in a longer term downtrend.

The dollar broke the falling wedge, and needs a break above horizontal line.

So not much to say, still 100% short and patient.

Have a nice day!

Market view

Well , pretty flat day yesterday after a gap lower then we had a POMO day which holded us up. Today we have NO pomo day , the dollar reversed and broke the falling wedge I had and looks like it will begin to move higher.

The markets is STILL in a topping process and NO reason for you to get bullish here. We are extremely overexteneded and more than we were before april flash crash. This is just setting up for a big enormous CRASH and personally I think it will happend maybe start Friday with Q3 GDP numbers - if not we should wait for 3. November the election day, which will be SELL THE NEWS!

Summation index still on SELL signal since 19th october - and VIX are about to breakout above the big huge falling wedge. When that happends WITH volume - thats the first sign that we have a big breakdown comming.

We have NEVER had so many smart moneys shorting the Nasdaq as we have now... nearly a double reading now from what we had before the crash 07-08 everyone remembers about. Do the smart money know something we dont know ????? Why do they short so much as they have never been before last 10 years ?

The dumb moneys are long and still holding long, everyone thinks its safe to step in here and we will go to the moon.

QE2 is Bernanke's quantitative easing (round 2). With freshly printed money, Bernanke is buying treasuries from the banks, which they in turn have been putting the money into supporting the markets. None of this activity makes the problems disappear, therefore there is extreme amount of risk in securities, given the problems that seem to be mulitiplying like rabbits. (just how far does the rabbit hole go?)

Bernanke has been attempting to create inflation, or at least the perception of inflation, among other "tools" to scare people out of the security of normally "safe" investments by giving low returns and little choices for people seeking returns to...er..turn towards. The problem with this is that:
1) Thus far Bernanke has not been able to thwart the deflationary pressures.
2) Unemployment remains high
3) The system is riddled with corruption and fraud.
4) Retail market consists of a high number of soon-to-retire babyboomers, that have been scared out of their witts for their golden year nest eggs, so they will not be returning. Those remaining in the market will continue to pull out.

Of course this has been a transfer of wealth from the already stressed taxpayers to cover-up the insolvency of the banks due to their fraud and many years of siphoing capital in the form of overly-lavish bonus and compensation packages.

QE will not effect nor affect foreclosures.

But people - dont be fooled by the FED... a crash is comming..

Market view

DOW made a bearish shooting star reversal here on monday. If we get a confirmation tuesday(today) and that is 11.132. So below that and we get a confirmation.

AAPL still getting VERY close to breakdown and is sitting right on SUPPORT line from the lows... lets see if it holds today..

SPX made a kiss to the WEEKLY MA(200) and got rejected to break above, so if FAT FINGERS showing up here, maybe they wanted us to push up to weekly MA(200) and then down again. Last time we were here was the april top.

The dollar is in a bullish falling wedge and is about to make a HIGHER low IMO , lets see if it holds and the dollar is about to breakout higher..

The VIX still in a HUGE bullish falling wedge and looks like its about to breakout here next days...

Time will tell


I still believe we are heading WAY down and we get a crash here, so looking for BELOW 1000 SPX before 14 November.



Lets see

Market view

Hope you enjoyed your weekend !

Markets is still in a topping process and we should begin to see a very nice sharp sell off soon. Everyday we get more and more bearish signals. Mclean summation index is still on SELL signal since 19th October and AAPL is getting close to a breakdown. Same with Nasdaq weekly chart looks toppy - forming a bearish hanging man candlestick this week, which is often a reversal candlestick. The NYSE weekly chart made a DOJI candle which is also a reversal candle - so there is a big possibility we start moving down from next week and it will be confirmed with a big fat bearish engulfing.

I'm still very long the dollar as it bottomed and is about to make a big rally here with markets moving down.

So again - waiting for the crash to come, but when it starts it will get fast.

Market view

I'm still very very bearish and there is lots of lots of bearish signals and a reversal of a reversal of a reversal , which means a top is in, and its a process. I am looking for a long RED bar today in the markets. One of my favourite swing trade indicators gave a SELL signal 19th october the summation index and its still crawling down from here. That means there is a 80% or so possiblity that the TOP is already in, I'm looking for a SHARP correction to come when we break the support zones, and lots of gaps to fill below. SPX target still 942 short term.

I think when FAT fingers are ready they will slam markets down heavy , like we see -4% , -7% days , but lets see... it will be ugly.

The semidonductors not following markets and they are about to breakdown hard....

MBS - Mortage Backed Securities - bought by the FED, Blackrock AND PIMCO! for the last 6 weeks have a PURPOSE !!!!!

Why would they roll INTO MBS's??? Because they helped cause the foreclosure crisis! That's why.

Blackrock is owned by BofA, and Blackrock is the largest shareholder of BofA!!!

Why would you sue your corporate master and your investment??? Why would you bet the house on MBS's, on the CUSP OF THE CRISIS???!!!

BECAUSE - The Bank of America coming foreclosure crisis, and the coming crisis for Ally, Wells Fargo, et al...WILL BE BACK STOPPED BY THE US TAXPAYER!!!

All that they need is another crisis during the coming lame duck congress!!!

Last night, I saw one breif news headline, about the FED's conflict of interest int he effort to potentially sue BofA!!! Not another mention since then!

YES...it is a TRUE conflict of ethics!!! For the FED Reserve to help create the foreclosure crisis, then invest in the broken mortage tranches, then sue the BofA that they have hold over! It's like your left hand suing the right hand for your smoking habit, all while the left hand held the lighter!

Create FED leaks and put FED Regional underlings on MSM propaganda channels saying QEII in coming. Get Pimco and other lemmings to chime along. Make September and outstanding month to prove it. Now while we wait for Nov. 3 meeting to confirm the QE dumping of trillions to save the economy what could possibly go wrong. Ocotober!

October; UE sideways- oops but keep buying our stocks, Beige book- fair conditions - oops but keep buying our stocks- Philly Fed shows marginal improvement- oops -but keep buying our stocks. Market and corporate profits are doing fine, nothing to worry about - go ahead buy stocks! Its October 21st and the transfer is not complete but making progress. As soon as the QEII is either delayed or underwhelms the market is okay to crash since the big boys were able to off load and prepare along with the FED and let the rest of the world eat cake.

100% short - long the dollar.

Have a nice day

Market view

Yesterday was a POMO day and we made the backtest quite perfect from broken trendline as you can see on 30 min chart. The backtest is a kiss of death and we should really begin tank hard here after this backtest. Summation index still on SELL signal since 19th october, now just needs a confirmation of that, so lets see if we get a nasty down day today , cause its not POMO day today.

MACD about to tick into negative territory and that will accelerate the selling pressure - so nothing really new, still 100% short , markets getting interesting here, POMO job done yesterday with backtest of broken trendline before a nice crash. I still believe a crash is comming and you wont be long here.

Take in mind we are still in a major major Head and shoulders pattern and bearish flag over last months, which I think will breakdown and move down to 942 area.

The big downmove might first start in November, but lets see, I think we are close, but thought so 1 month ago too... but everyday more signals showing that we are heading down, now with (broken up trendline) - (backtested) and then down..... lets see. Remember the TOPPING is a PROCESS , so last weeks we have just been moving fast UP and DOWN, usually a sign of a top....

Have a nice day

Market view

Back from holiday and back to the markets. Been short over last week on vacation, no worries looking at the markets at all. I see we have slowly moved up a little bit more, but as you see today, we lost all these gains over last week. And IMO this is just beginning, we cant keep going up like this, it will end up BADLY and like a crash type.

We made a very bearish candle on the daily chart and we BROKE the uptrend line which is the 1st signal to get short ( or the trend changes ) this happended for the first time 19th October. China raised the rates and still problems with the banks. Indexes very near getting the bearish MACD crossover where the selling pressure SHOULD accelerate. The dollar as I am bullish on rallied yesterday and broke the downtrend line, I think the dollar is ready here for a massive rally and shorts going to cover.

Earnings have peaked.....now comes the quarter where they go down and the market will go down first.

Companies are beating the numbers because they have cut expenses to the bone (and have had estimates lowered).....but the bottom line, revenues, have sucked.....and have been burried in the print, if mentioned at all.

Now all these people out of work, people they layed off, are starting to hurt their numbers.

Look at AA.....barely met drastically lowered numbers.

GE missed.

AAPLE blew away the fake estimates (only met the whisper) and basically guided lower.....and Ipad sales were lower than expected.

IBM......you will have to look hard, but guesse what, revenues were up a whole 3% overall.....not too great for a company at multi year highs.

GS- Wow, revenues down 27%.


Where's the big earnings rally?

Hang in there bears, they've kept the market propped up on low volume momentum......wont be able to do it with high volume conviction.....

An unbelievable number of issues will fuel the sell-off.

Well not much more to say , still 100% short markets and long the dollar. I think this is the beginning for a VERY ugly week as we broke the uptrend and dollar broke downtrend.

Well we have POMO days today and Friday , lets see if they can hold and pump markets up to green today like they have last 1.5 months, but I think overall they cant keep hold us up, and we will tank hard.

Commercial Hedges are far too net short the NASDAQ-100. Whenever commercial traders get this short the NDX, there is a very high likelihood for a correction. And seeing as how the NASDAQ led this move higher; as goes the NASDAQ-100, so goes the market. Commercial hedgers took record short positions in October. More than double what we saw ahead of the 2008 top.

The AAII Bull Ratio (4-week average) is way too high. There's a very strong correlation between market tops and bullish sentiment getting over-extended.

Institutional selling divergence from the market getting high. Though the market continued to rise through October, institutional selling starting to pick up. This also has a high correlation to tops in the market.

VIX at 1-Month Low in October. Here's a table outlining the S&P 500's performance in the 2-3 weeks after the VIX hits a one-month low in the month of October. The odds highly favor the bears under these circumstances.

Up Big on Off-Season. Whenever the S&P 500 is up in the off-earnings season, the tendency has been to sell the market during earnings season. The last three times the S&P 500 has been up 5% or more in the off-season, the average sell-off during earnings season has been about 5%

SEE Index & ETF Only hitting too many extremes. There's also a very high correlation to tops in the market whenever, on multiple days, we see a reading of over 100 on the call-put ratio on the indices (Index & ETF Only ISEE). Whenever we start to see a lot of hedging or outright shorting near the end of a big rally like we've had, its been a pretty big sign that we're headed lower.

Broken Rising Wedge. We have a confirmed broken rising wedge. That is pretty bearish. Rising wedges are by their nature bearish formations to begin with as nearly 70% of the cases will usually end with a breakout to the downside.



The conclusion here is to STAY 100% short and long dollar, yes.. you need a bit patience, but this slowly creeping up move in markets will give away in a few days....... so no reason to take the risk and go long here IMO. But well, everyone says we go up no matter what. FED is behind and only way is UP ........ well lets see , this is starting to get interesting. I think the move down yesterday was just a "little" move for what we are going to see down soon. The Mclean summation index VERY good indicator for up moves and down moves in markets, and its about to roll over and gave a sell signal , so thats a VERY clear and good signal that markets will trend down now. It has been bullish since late August....time will tell if this is right again again, excellent indicator.

Market view

Okay - not much to say yesterday than ANOTHER FLAT DAY.........boring boring.

I am still underwater with my shorts but still holding all of them, if we keep going higher let it be, patience is key here and I think any day we could go down, just needs a trigger or an event.

I'm going for vacation to Norway this week and will be back early next week (Tuesday). Until then - SHORT SHORT SHORT, only thing I can advice people to do now.

Markets are moronic. Think about it. They're all slobbering over prospects of the Fed pumping more money into a debt-bloated economy. The bulls are hoping for an even bigger Ponzi scheme. Doesn't matter nobody wants the money or has credit to borrow it. Or just one big corporation puts out some better earnings, based on such as cost cutting and foreign slave labor, and all the problems of the world economy are solved. Why do you think there's the terminology "dumb money"? If people were smarter than greedy, would there be outrageous bubbles, in the first place? Or think about bonds. Is it smart to lock in 10 years at less than 2.5%, or 30 years at less than 4%, in times when sovereign debt is in question? Forest Gump had it right, "Stupid is as stupid does."

Have a nice week :-)

Market view

Not much to say - we had the slowest day yesterday with most likely computers just trading markets sideways until end of day. We made a nice doji and lets see if we can get a reversal here. By now Nikkei closed down -2% which is a good sign, cause thats the largest decline in the whole month, so lets see if we can get a terrible tuesday and confirm the revral doji.

Still 100% short and bearish - have a nice day

Market view

Well not much to say over the weekend - still 100% short and very bearish markets. Still waiting for the sell off to come , but we are just slowly slowly creeping higher......reminds me a lot about the highs in april before flash crash.

SPX and markets needs to stop creeping higher here, cause if they move a lot higher, they will break the big trendline from the highs 2007. Markets are so close to it now, that we can get, so lets see if we wont get a big nasty reversal from here.

VIX found support too...

"Our view is that the stock market is substantially overvalued here, and that investors continue to be diverted from the big picture by the clown carnival of short-term news and investing-as-sport that is celebrated on financial television." (John P. Hussman, Ph.D.)"




Not much to say , target still 942 SPX this month.

Lets see what this week brings us....

Market view

Well yesterday we began to see some heavy fast selling which indicates that the bears are warming up, but we didnt break any supports though, but VIX got a bullish reversal pattern - gold did get a bearish engulfing and the dollar got a reversal. I think the dollar is in a bottom process and will get a big rally any day from here. The same I expect with the markets , ANY DAY from here over next 2 weeks I expect a BIG sell off in markets , at least until next POMO day 13th October next week. So I expect a huge sell off in markets over the next few days and overall I think rest of October until the end of it could be ugly.

Still looking for SPX 942, but we will see how it plays out.

Have a nice day - still 100% short. Job numbers today important....

Market view

As you know I got 100% short at 1160 SPX with rest of my cash, why I did that is because I really confident that we wont make new highs, I think major top was in april 2010 and we will make a lower high to setup the right shoulder in a big HS pattern. The VOLUME confirms that IF this was a real breakout above 1130 and 1150, why is the volume so WEAK - and so strong on every down move. Also we have long term negative divergences in this bear flag , but we MIGHT get a move to 1170ish, but really why I got 100% short I can handle it, cause I am looking for a big crash comming which should take us to 940's THIS month......so yes I have only 3 weeks left for the crash as I have been predicting. Remember its really hard to predict the perfect top and predict the perfect time it will happend, but I think WHEN it happends, then it will go so fast, like the flash crash, cause so many got stops now and then I rather get a bit underwater IF we move to 1170ish and then we go to 940's 1-3 weeks later.....I can wait, patience is key sometimes.

SPX is still below the major trendline since 2007 top and 2010 top, so I think we will be here and then get a BIG FAT nasty sell off from here to start.. Remember the 1987 and 1939 crash the markets gained also huge 10-15% before it sold off big... same pattern here...

Everyone think that USD is now toilet paper and will go down to 0 and USD is heavy heavy shorted. I think USD is in a bottom process here and we are SO close to the bottom. I've been long USD last week but I know that it will begin to rally very soon. USD is still in a huge uptrend on the weekly chart and if we shall hit the trendline from the lows its around 76-77 and right now when I am writing I see it at 77.2... so we should be here now and a big reversal should come soon.

The markets only gained up huge cause of the big dollar descline last months and when this turns around, we should see the markets tank.

So we got a nice rally in the DOW, but lets see what really supports this move ? I think its ONLY cause of the dollar..

September Highlights and Beginning October …

01. Increase in Jobless Claims.
02. Increase in Unemployment.
03. Increase in Foreclosures.
04. Increase in Bank Failures.
05. Increase in Deficit Spending.
06. Increase in Treasury Borrowing.
07. Increase in Bankruptcies – Up 11% in 9 Months
08. Increase in Poverty Rate (1 in 7)
09. Increase in Food Stamps Assistance (1 in 8)
10. Increase in Underwater Mortgages (1 in 4)
11. Increase in European Unemployment – Germany.
12. Increase in Sovereign Debt Risks – Ireland, Spain, Greece.
13. Increase in Global Terror Threats
14. Increase in Drop of Consumer Confidence.
15. Increase in Drop of Builder Sentiment.
16. Increase in Price of Oil – See $80 per/Barrel & $85 in Oct.
17. Increase in All Soft & Hard Commodity Costs - Inflation.
18. Increase in U.S. Dollar Devaluation by Federal Reserve.
19. Increase in September Indexes – Best September Since 1939.

October begins with another strong performance showing …

01. Confirmation - Income and Spending were essentially FLAT – See Inflation.
02. Confirmation - University of Michigan - Confidence of 500 People Stupid.
03. Confirmation – August ISM Number – Lowest of Year.
04. Confirmation - States used about $1 billion to provide subsidized employment.
05. Confirmation - August Factory Orders Decline – Surprisingly.
06. Confirmation - Office Vacancies Hit 17 Year High Q3.
07. Confirmation - Robo-Signing Foreclosures Scheme – Bank Fraud in Billions.
08. Confirmation - Oil Reserves Hit Capacity & Oil Hits 5 Month High.
09. Confirmation - Gold & Silver Hit Historical High Price Levels.
10. Confirmation - Ounce of Gold Higher than Price of S&P 500.
11. Confirmation - 1 in 384 Homes in U.S. in Foreclosure.
12. Confirmation - 1 in 82 Homes in Foreclosure in Nevada.
13. Confirmation - IMF Report Banks must Write-Off $2.2 Trillion in Bad Debts.
14. Confirmation - IMF Report $4.4 Trillion Roll-Over Financing Needed in 2 Years.
15. Confirmation - Japan Growth Negative – Bank of Japan Cuts Interest Rate to Zero.
16. Confirmation - Federal Reserve Bernanke Offers Stock Market Below Zero Rates.
17. Confirmation - Moody’s Downgrades 10 S&P 500 Companies.
18. Confirmation - Moody’s Announces ‘May Downgrade Ireland for 2nd Time’.
19. Confirmation - 10/05 - Dow Rises 100+ Points in First 2 Minutes of Trading.
20. Confirmation - Gold Rises $15+ Dollars per/Ounce in First 2 Minutes of Trading.
21. Confirmation - TARP Ends although more than $250 Billion still Owed Taxpayers.
22. Confirmation - Mutual Fund Outflows Hit Record.
23. Confirmation - Sept. ISM Number – 53.2 –vs- 51.5 = Irrational Optimism Returns on Export Component.
24. Confirmation - 10/05 - Harley Davidson #1 in S&P 500 … No Comment, Too Stupid.
25. Confirmation - 10/05 – Fed Monetizes $5.19 Billion in 11 Bond CUSIPs.
26. Confirmation - 10/05 – Gas “Up” Everyday since Oct. 1st.
27. Confirmation - Asian Stock Hit 26 Month High.
28. Confirmation - Moody’s and Fitch Downgrade Ireland on Banking Debt.
29. Confirmation - EU Revised Greek Debt Higher after Audit.
30. Confirmation - BOJ to Buy ETF’s and REIT – Enters Equity Markets.
31. Confirmation - 7/02 to 10/05 - Dow has Risen 1,258.24 Pts - 69 Trading Days.
32. Confirmation - 10/06 - U.S. Dollar Hits 8 Month Low against Euro.
33. Confirmation - Soft & Hard Commodities Hit 2 Year Highs – See Inflation.
34. Confirmation - IMF Reports Global Growth to Slow Revises 2011 Lower.
35. Confirmation - 10/06 - ADP Report – Payrolls Decline 39,000 September.

Uh yeah SO BULLISH and we are up huge! Thats so clearly someone is manipulating these markets and when it ends it will end up BADLY. Trust me I have patience and it can NEVER stay like this. Fundamentals will rule in the longer term no matter what.

Heck, we got some BAD economic numbers tomorrow, which was important... but well POMO was there and if they wasnt markets could be down -2, -3% , but no.. they keep it up !

Heck markets moving up no matter what now BAD news or GOOD news , dosent matter, just moving up. I think if US got nuked ! wooooooaah ! Bad news more QE , everyone happy lets print ! Markets up huge..... IfBernanke got killed,,, woooow, big time rally, everyone happy and we rally....

All in all - I'm 100% short and staying short here, time will come and it WILL get ugly. (That means I'm looking for SPX 942!!)

Have a nice day

ALL IN

I added by last cash left and I am now 100% short the markets, intraday update - transfered some money from my bank account to trading account yesterday and added whats left in shorts today.

Got TZA last add 24.42 - SPX 1160 currently. I feel very confident and its 2 times this year I have gone all in one way. Last time was near the april highs, some days before. I feel similar now to the highs in april and all in shorts again. Lets see what the next days brings... :)

You know it really is pretty amazing what the Federal Reserve is doing and a whole lot of people a lot smarter than me think they are leading us down a path of doom. What caused the last economic crisis and housing bubble? It was Greenspan pumping money into the world and keeping interest rates low. He was going to be the man that lead the world to a new and better era of prosperity(How did that work out for your legacy Al?)
So what is the Feds response to the current state of affairs. Well lets just do the same damn thing that got us into this mess in the first place. Print more money and pump it into the economy through mortgage and bond and other asset purchases. Except the money never gets anywhere to where it actually helps the economy. It helps the skull and bones crowd of which Bernanke and Geitner and company are charter members. It creates more bubbles! Why is gold and platinum at all time highs and 2 year notes at all time interest rate lows. Must be scary times, ah contraire, the stock market is doing just great thanks. Why, the money has to go somewhere, so lets spread it around and all the big money boys balance sheets just get better and better. Meanwhile a few voices of reason call out we have to stop this madness. The Philly Fed president said yesterday, "Asset purchases in our current economic enviroment can do little if anything to help our economy and may actually hurt it". The KC Fed president is ready to kill some of these guys, but they don't listen.

Have a nice day and good luck to everyone !

Market view

Wow ! first RED day I've really seen the last weeks, now when Setpember is over we can begin to tank and we are just beginning here......

MACD is about to get a negative crossover and we are about to break all uptrendlines here, so if we do so, it can go fast down. I am still VERY bearish and my target for SPX is 942 this month.

Its a big BEAR flag we are trading in where 1060 is the support in the bear flag. We should most likely take out the 1060, possible little bounce before and then tank further, and then we have a big HS pattern with support 1040 and when we take out this one , see ya at 942. Economy still sucks and it will get worse near future, we will get more austerity and problems with EU Crisis. Wont be surprised if we see some more terror alerts or terror events.

But all in all, still HEAVY short and staying short , thats the way to make the big $$ for now. Have a nice day everyone.

Market view

The recession ended 14 months ago? Tell that to over 20 million people who cannot find work. We got a spike from the stimulus, but it's over. They fixed nothing. GDP went up nearly 4% and now it's tracing back to 1%. Yet the market has tacked on 5000 points.

Europe is still a mess. Japan is done....literally. China owns the world (and bulls rally on that?????).

Do you bulls not see what is happening? You rally on 'not so dire' reports....then you rally more on dire reports because the 'dire' report will force the fed to screw our children more (print money they will have to pay for).

Imagine the pain of all the bears in 1986/1987 as the market went up 70%......then, the ones who stuck to their convictions were rewarded within a matter of days. Same set up here, only one could argue the fundamentals are much worse today. We're up 80+ percent since the bottom....depite the fact that nothing was fixed, just bandaged.....we kicked the can down the road, now we're coming up to the can again....with a whole lot less resources than the first time we kicked it.

Then there was the tech rally in 1998/1999....bears ... how 3000 PE ratios could not last and the market would fall....as we saw, all of the 1998/1999 tech rally was wiped out in a matter of months.

The DOW is within 10% of all time highs.....with unemployment soaring uncontrollably (but sometimes 'not so dire')...15m+ homes in foreclosure, GDP growing less then 2% and the likes of AMD, INTC and many other tech stocks warning, national debt and spending at all time highs, states and local governments considering bankruptcy, Europe printing billions to keep their continent from collapsing....and we're approching all time highs.....

Really?

I'll keep my shorts, and I'll be rewarded....This latest 8 week, no volume, POMO rally will be gone in a matter of a week.....just wait and see.

If your a bull, you're not paying attention, at all.

A great read if you have more time http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-biggest-disconnect-of-all-time-40273

If you dont have time go to bottom conclusion
"

The Biggest Disconnect of All Time

I’m seeing one of the biggest disconnects of all time — between the underlying U.S. economy and the performance of the stock market. Just consider what we’ve learned about the economic fundamentals in the past several days …

• Consumer confidence plunged in September — to 48.5 from 53.2 in August. That was far below the 53 reading economists were expecting, and the worst in seven months.

• The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index plunged from 11 in August to NEGATIVE 2 in September. Economists were looking for a reading of 6. That was the worst since January. The report followed a dismal Dallas Fed reading from a day prior. That region’s index tanked to -17.7 from -13.5 in August.

• The housing market? Yeah, it still stinks. New home sales flat-lined at 288,000 in August, the second-worst month in U.S. history. Home prices fell to their lowest level since December 2003. Builder confidence held at the lowest level since early 2009. Existing home sales bounced a bit, but they recouped less than a third of their 27 percent July swan dive.

In other words, things aren’t getting better in the real world. They’re getting worse! But on Wall Street it’s party time. Investors are essentially the most bullish they’ve ever been. And it looks like September 2010 could be the best for stocks of any September in seven decades.

What’s going on?

Promise of Free Money Distorting Markets …

Once upon a time not so long ago, asset class performance closely tracked the underlying fundamentals. If oil supplies rose, oil prices fell. If income, jobs, production, and corporate profits gained, so did stocks. If the economy improved, bond prices fell and interest rates rose. You get the picture.

But these days, it’s a different story …

Stocks, bonds, commodities, and other assets are trading in virtual lock step thanks to the Fed’s most dramatic intervention and interference in the markets of all time. All it takes is a whisper of “quantitative easing” and stocks take off, bonds take off, commodities take off, and the dollar implodes.

Housing is the one sector the Fed has not been able to revive.

About the only asset class that’s NOT responding to all this free money talk is the one asset the Fed probably wants to respond the most — housing.

The latest S&P Case-Shiller report showed that home prices resumed their deterioration in July, falling 0.1 percent. Prices are down 3.6 percent since the Fed rolled out QE1 in November 2008 and 28 percent since the peak of the market four years ago.

Stated another way, the fundamentals haven’t mattered lately. Stocks are reacting to the prospect of the Fed debasing our currency. That debasement is driving up asset values, as well as contra-dollar investments and the price of almost everything we consume.

A few examples:

• Gold has surged almost $300 an ounce from its February low,
• Copper has jumped 188 percent from its recent low,
• Corn has exploded 58 percent,
• Wheat has climbed 65 percent,
• And sugar has risen 90 percent.

… But the Disconnect Simply Cannot Last

Stock market bulls would have you believe this will last to infinity and beyond. “Don’t fight the Fed,” they say.

I have a different take. “Fighting the Fed” may sting a bit in the SHORT TERM. But it has been an incredibly successful strategy over the LONGER TERM.

For instance …

You could’ve “fought the Fed” by shorting the heck out of housing and mortgage stocks even as Fed officials told you the problems in those sectors were “contained.” Doing so would have made you a fortune!

You could’ve “fought the Fed” by selling stocks into every single interest rate cut between 2008 and 2009. The Fed first lowered interest rates from 5.25 percent in September 2007. The Dow traded at 13,820 then. It proceeded to plunge to 6,470 over the ensuing couple of years.

I’d be a seller now, not a buyer.

And you could’ve “fought the Fed” back in 2000, when Alan Greenspan was singing the praises of the technology revolution even as the Nasdaq was about to crash.

The list of Fed policy failures and economic forecasting blunders goes on and on and on.

So to answer the question I’ve been hearing lately, no, I wouldn’t be buying stocks willy nilly because of the Fed. I’d be selling into the rally, and positioning for downside gains in vulnerable sectors using options and inverse ETFs.

And unless and until the real economy takes a turn for the better, the Fed’s QE2 program should ultimately fail to levitate stocks over the longer term."

Conclusion: Again only thing I can say is SHORT these markets, fundamentals are telling the longer term move in markets and fundamentals are horrible. Charts also indicating a crash comming or a BIG move down, and that is what I am expecting. I know I have been short for the last 2 weeks, but markets literally havent moved up a lot, just choppy since 1120-1150 around this area. Suddendly we could EASY loose all the gains in just a few days, and thats what I am looking for. My SPX target remains on 942 SPX in this month - October. I do also believe that this crisis could lead to another major war setting up. If you know the root reasons for World war 1 and 2, a world war 3 could come. But I'm not predicting any war , but just telling you that there is a good chance for it, some kind of chaos... take a look recent week with Europe- Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece.....

Holding all my TZA.

Market view

Well well - not much to say..... slowly choppy markets and VERY boring..... The markets have imo been so boring last weeks up and down 0.2-0.4% ... so I am still VERY VERY Bearish - and think we might get a crash here in 2010 this month , starting any day from now......

Windows dressings over, take in mind 1st day of October is usually very bullish and green, BUT......SEPTEMBER were also usaully BAD..... so today might be bloddy RED then, just to f*** with peoples mind.

So not much to say - as a conclusion this is a suckers rally and will be CRASHED down again very fast. I would not be long before this crash happends - we COULD easy see -2, -3% gap down one day and then tank.....and now when the window dressings is over, could be anyday from here. So today black friday ?? Might very well be actually ... and I will repeat .. it will be a VERY fast move down , kinda like a flash crash, hard to predict we get another one, but we will get a major move down -2, -3% down in 1 day at least in many days.

Another thing I think the US Dollar has bottomed or 1-2 days close to a MAJOR bottom - so exchange your money to the dollar imo, this is heavy shorted and no one believes in it - it will fake out and explode up very soon and get a huge move up...... so good time to get over in the USD from EURO.

Have a nice day