Market view

As you know I got 100% short at 1160 SPX with rest of my cash, why I did that is because I really confident that we wont make new highs, I think major top was in april 2010 and we will make a lower high to setup the right shoulder in a big HS pattern. The VOLUME confirms that IF this was a real breakout above 1130 and 1150, why is the volume so WEAK - and so strong on every down move. Also we have long term negative divergences in this bear flag , but we MIGHT get a move to 1170ish, but really why I got 100% short I can handle it, cause I am looking for a big crash comming which should take us to 940's THIS month......so yes I have only 3 weeks left for the crash as I have been predicting. Remember its really hard to predict the perfect top and predict the perfect time it will happend, but I think WHEN it happends, then it will go so fast, like the flash crash, cause so many got stops now and then I rather get a bit underwater IF we move to 1170ish and then we go to 940's 1-3 weeks later.....I can wait, patience is key sometimes.

SPX is still below the major trendline since 2007 top and 2010 top, so I think we will be here and then get a BIG FAT nasty sell off from here to start.. Remember the 1987 and 1939 crash the markets gained also huge 10-15% before it sold off big... same pattern here...

Everyone think that USD is now toilet paper and will go down to 0 and USD is heavy heavy shorted. I think USD is in a bottom process here and we are SO close to the bottom. I've been long USD last week but I know that it will begin to rally very soon. USD is still in a huge uptrend on the weekly chart and if we shall hit the trendline from the lows its around 76-77 and right now when I am writing I see it at 77.2... so we should be here now and a big reversal should come soon.

The markets only gained up huge cause of the big dollar descline last months and when this turns around, we should see the markets tank.

So we got a nice rally in the DOW, but lets see what really supports this move ? I think its ONLY cause of the dollar..

September Highlights and Beginning October …

01. Increase in Jobless Claims.
02. Increase in Unemployment.
03. Increase in Foreclosures.
04. Increase in Bank Failures.
05. Increase in Deficit Spending.
06. Increase in Treasury Borrowing.
07. Increase in Bankruptcies – Up 11% in 9 Months
08. Increase in Poverty Rate (1 in 7)
09. Increase in Food Stamps Assistance (1 in 8)
10. Increase in Underwater Mortgages (1 in 4)
11. Increase in European Unemployment – Germany.
12. Increase in Sovereign Debt Risks – Ireland, Spain, Greece.
13. Increase in Global Terror Threats
14. Increase in Drop of Consumer Confidence.
15. Increase in Drop of Builder Sentiment.
16. Increase in Price of Oil – See $80 per/Barrel & $85 in Oct.
17. Increase in All Soft & Hard Commodity Costs - Inflation.
18. Increase in U.S. Dollar Devaluation by Federal Reserve.
19. Increase in September Indexes – Best September Since 1939.

October begins with another strong performance showing …

01. Confirmation - Income and Spending were essentially FLAT – See Inflation.
02. Confirmation - University of Michigan - Confidence of 500 People Stupid.
03. Confirmation – August ISM Number – Lowest of Year.
04. Confirmation - States used about $1 billion to provide subsidized employment.
05. Confirmation - August Factory Orders Decline – Surprisingly.
06. Confirmation - Office Vacancies Hit 17 Year High Q3.
07. Confirmation - Robo-Signing Foreclosures Scheme – Bank Fraud in Billions.
08. Confirmation - Oil Reserves Hit Capacity & Oil Hits 5 Month High.
09. Confirmation - Gold & Silver Hit Historical High Price Levels.
10. Confirmation - Ounce of Gold Higher than Price of S&P 500.
11. Confirmation - 1 in 384 Homes in U.S. in Foreclosure.
12. Confirmation - 1 in 82 Homes in Foreclosure in Nevada.
13. Confirmation - IMF Report Banks must Write-Off $2.2 Trillion in Bad Debts.
14. Confirmation - IMF Report $4.4 Trillion Roll-Over Financing Needed in 2 Years.
15. Confirmation - Japan Growth Negative – Bank of Japan Cuts Interest Rate to Zero.
16. Confirmation - Federal Reserve Bernanke Offers Stock Market Below Zero Rates.
17. Confirmation - Moody’s Downgrades 10 S&P 500 Companies.
18. Confirmation - Moody’s Announces ‘May Downgrade Ireland for 2nd Time’.
19. Confirmation - 10/05 - Dow Rises 100+ Points in First 2 Minutes of Trading.
20. Confirmation - Gold Rises $15+ Dollars per/Ounce in First 2 Minutes of Trading.
21. Confirmation - TARP Ends although more than $250 Billion still Owed Taxpayers.
22. Confirmation - Mutual Fund Outflows Hit Record.
23. Confirmation - Sept. ISM Number – 53.2 –vs- 51.5 = Irrational Optimism Returns on Export Component.
24. Confirmation - 10/05 - Harley Davidson #1 in S&P 500 … No Comment, Too Stupid.
25. Confirmation - 10/05 – Fed Monetizes $5.19 Billion in 11 Bond CUSIPs.
26. Confirmation - 10/05 – Gas “Up” Everyday since Oct. 1st.
27. Confirmation - Asian Stock Hit 26 Month High.
28. Confirmation - Moody’s and Fitch Downgrade Ireland on Banking Debt.
29. Confirmation - EU Revised Greek Debt Higher after Audit.
30. Confirmation - BOJ to Buy ETF’s and REIT – Enters Equity Markets.
31. Confirmation - 7/02 to 10/05 - Dow has Risen 1,258.24 Pts - 69 Trading Days.
32. Confirmation - 10/06 - U.S. Dollar Hits 8 Month Low against Euro.
33. Confirmation - Soft & Hard Commodities Hit 2 Year Highs – See Inflation.
34. Confirmation - IMF Reports Global Growth to Slow Revises 2011 Lower.
35. Confirmation - 10/06 - ADP Report – Payrolls Decline 39,000 September.

Uh yeah SO BULLISH and we are up huge! Thats so clearly someone is manipulating these markets and when it ends it will end up BADLY. Trust me I have patience and it can NEVER stay like this. Fundamentals will rule in the longer term no matter what.

Heck, we got some BAD economic numbers tomorrow, which was important... but well POMO was there and if they wasnt markets could be down -2, -3% , but no.. they keep it up !

Heck markets moving up no matter what now BAD news or GOOD news , dosent matter, just moving up. I think if US got nuked ! wooooooaah ! Bad news more QE , everyone happy lets print ! Markets up huge..... IfBernanke got killed,,, woooow, big time rally, everyone happy and we rally....

All in all - I'm 100% short and staying short here, time will come and it WILL get ugly. (That means I'm looking for SPX 942!!)

Have a nice day