I'm right now moving my site to www.sqwiitrader.com where my future blog posts will be for all the members in there.
We also have chat room to do live intraday chart analysis, playing small caps and doing normal swing trades.
We will do much more focus on intraday daytrading too.
Hope you like my new site
Friday, January 27, 2012
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Shiiiaz now I'm beginning to feel very pain in my shorts ,, this markets keeps going higher with the RSI(14) on QQQ at the highest level last years. Either way ,, it all looks close ,, I'm going to hold and stand through this pain ,, I admit that I did not see this big move coming and so high levels ,, but again they keep it to the extremes until everyone gives up and to me it seems like every single bear out there gave up already...... so this is very close to turn imo.
I have some interesting charts:
1. VIX made a very nice big bottom tail + filled a gap ,, the VIX chart looks bottomed imo per daily chart ,, but again hard to say.
2. QQQ so overbought right now , never been this overbought before in a long time,, but remember can stay overbought in a longer period.
3. I still see the very bearish topping hs pattern in the markets ,, the mini one we had summer 2011 ,, and now we have a major one which should be more ugly,, targets 8000 on dow jones... I still think we are in a bear market ,, and think we see below October lows this year.
4. What is VERY interesting is that NYA backtested today at the close the neckline from the topping hs pattern this summer,, so a bearish backtest ? I think so
All in all ,, holding my shorts ,, VERY painful right now ,, but I will hold thru the pain even if it last a little longer ,, I still see this as a big BEAR MARKET RALLY ,, so staying patient and looking to get rewared with my patience.
AAPL made some great earnings ,, but however markets struggled to gain a lot with futures right now only up 0.3% ,, so non affects on overall markets however the QQQ or NASDSAQ is hitting some interesting spots today....
Right now NASDASQ is at some very huge resistance from the yearly chart - yes a YEARLY trendline from 2008 highs.
I think this will be an extreme strong one to break and therefore I dont think we see techs go any higher from here.
So what is most likely is a gap up in the techs and then flush down this morning.
Dow jones and SPX is still below the top from 23th January this Monday ,, so time will tell how markets open , still anything can happend.
On the very short term chart especially on XLF I see a very bearish topping hs pattern which suggest markets actually will go DOWN today (Wednesday) so I really suspect if markets is gapping higher it would only be a little gap up on Apple earnings ,, but then a flush down.
XLF filled a gap yesterday + forming right shoulder in topping hs pattern 5 day chart.
Not much to say either than VIX is creeping higher from trendline and looks good to explode to upside ,, markets looks topped on Monday 23th January at SPY 132.25 so lets see how markets reacts to this.
My personal target for dow jones this year 2012 is 8000ish ,, so thats a near 4000-5000 points drop from current level... yes 4000-5000 ,, this is why I stay so bearish right now as I think this rally is a pure but violent BEAR MARKET RALLY.
Markets ended lower -0.2% so nothing big there. I'm sitting tight and having good patience with my short ETF's as someday they will rip higher that I'm pretty sure of and it should be very soon as the markets looks very topped on Monday 23th.
Lets see how the techs reacts to the yearly trendline from today.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Markets had one of the best intraday reversals I've seen over the past 30 days. So lets see if this is something important but all in all , all the charts i'm looking at pointing to this being a major major top for 2012 ,,, and even over the next few years.
I think this might be one of the best spots to short markets over next few years you will get.
1. Markets extremely overbought ,, RSI(14) at 70 ,, last times were before August drop 2011....
2. We have a daily chart very clear BEARISH divergence ,, all in place for a major drop
3. NYA and other indexes forming a very clear bearish topping head and shoulders pattern ,, this was a pattern we had summer 2011 which played out ,, this one is even bigger so this might even get more ugly.
4. Sentiment is at extreme bullishness right now ,, thats the RECIPE you want if you want the markets to sell off. If not many bullish by sentiment markets would not fall a lot ,, but with so many bullish/neutral markets can easy sell off hard.
5. VIX actually BOUNCED of the trendline from 2011 lows ,, so looking good from those levels and potential low in VIX for 2012.
All in all ,, seems like today might be interesting day for bears finally as we got the best "sellers" intraday showing up. Also every charts points to a major top in and VIX major bottom , so a drop in markets very likely.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Markets were flat on Friday and closed at near 0% still the same as Thursday 19th cycle peek I had.
What was interesting on Friday were the VIX were plunging ,, somehow looks like a capitulation move in the VIX ,, as they moved it down to some VERY interesting levels just beofore close.
I'm right now getting smoked in TVIX as my average is 26-27$ with huge size position ,,, so right now deeply underwater which is bad , but again I know that TVIX is a fast mover so last time it ran big were from 20$ to 45$ in 5 trading days ,, thats more than 100% gains in 5 trading days.
Right now I'm underwater a bit ,, but I remain pretty sure that this is just a bear market rally (POWERFULL one) and we are going to see NEW LOWS for 2012 in the markets....
So I remain heavy short,, painful yes - but again the view of the stock markets is still the same and we did not get above the level from 19th cycle.
So take a look at VIX and see which very interesting spot it saw ,, it was option expiration for Friday ,, so seems like they tried holding markets up until then.
Next week will imo be VERY telling what is going to happend, as dow jones is only a few 100 points from 2011 top , and I dont expect dow jones to make new highs but making a "lower high" this time.
Gold and silver still surging after my multimonth bottom call late December when AGQ was 38.25$ I picked it up ,, right at the bottom ,, now its in the 50's ,, so congrats if you got some long gold and silver. Still think the bottom was in ,, but a pullback in gold and silver might come ,, so buy the dips.
Conclusion: So far markets held down on Friday with my cycle high at 19th January which should be the peek of optimism, so the markets should have topped out and markets should be about to see the bear market commence from here. This fits imo pretty good with where the VIX is standing right now. My bottom call for 2012 in VIX was 20-21 level , however on Friday we got last move below this level to the 18.3 which is VERY interesting spot imo, so I guess they moved the VIX down hard to test a key trendline from the lows in VIX.