Shiiiaz now I'm beginning to feel very pain in my shorts ,, this markets keeps going higher with the RSI(14) on QQQ at the highest level last years. Either way ,, it all looks close ,, I'm going to hold and stand through this pain ,, I admit that I did not see this big move coming and so high levels ,, but again they keep it to the extremes until everyone gives up and to me it seems like every single bear out there gave up already...... so this is very close to turn imo.
I have some interesting charts:
1. VIX made a very nice big bottom tail + filled a gap ,, the VIX chart looks bottomed imo per daily chart ,, but again hard to say.
2. QQQ so overbought right now , never been this overbought before in a long time,, but remember can stay overbought in a longer period.
3. I still see the very bearish topping hs pattern in the markets ,, the mini one we had summer 2011 ,, and now we have a major one which should be more ugly,, targets 8000 on dow jones... I still think we are in a bear market ,, and think we see below October lows this year.
4. What is VERY interesting is that NYA backtested today at the close the neckline from the topping hs pattern this summer,, so a bearish backtest ? I think so
Conclusion:
All in all ,, holding my shorts ,, VERY painful right now ,, but I will hold thru the pain even if it last a little longer ,, I still see this as a big BEAR MARKET RALLY ,, so staying patient and looking to get rewared with my patience.
I can see a correction underway. Alot of people commented that after this correction, we should see another uptrend above the current top. Your view still remain that this is the last major top of the year?
ReplyDeleteThis is merely base building for the next leg higher. Target well over S&P1500. Momentum and market volume indicators show no decline.
ReplyDeleteHang onto your shorts....to the grave.
Hi Chris
DeleteI can feel the pain you have now. I am one of your followers, and I believe you are one of the best traders. I followed you in 2010 end with TZA, which gave me a big loss, and now TVIX that I sold on last Fri for 15% loss. I see that many of your followers lost their patience, and said something bad to you. I think these people should be responsible for their own decisions, and should not blame you at all.
I think this is a big lesson to us too. I remember you recommended SMA 3 and 8 as long or short indicator, if you follow that, you would not have problem at all this time.
Anyway, I wish the best luck to you.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTom, base building?
DeleteHow is this anything remotely like base building?
Base building occurs when a market or security tracks sideways allowing it to work off overbought momentum and preparing it for a springboard off the established consolidation.
Currently these markets are displaying overbought status in just about every timeframe from short to intermediate and negative divergences are begining to emerge everywhere
QE3 looks imminent. That would push stock prices higher.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernanke-finger-trigger-bond-buys-054144981.html
One more thing.
ReplyDeleteAs good as technical analysis can be, experience has taught me that there are times when it is beneficial to take a step back from the charts and time cycles and whatever else you're into and look at the raw data.
The BDI continued to plummet in yesterdays session down a whopping nearly 3%. This is a very ominous sign and a leading indicator.
S&P earnings are in a word... ATROCIOUS!
Forget discounted earnings and all the crap they use now to talk markets up. Forward earnings can evaporate overnight under the onslaught of recession and currently the BDI says LOOKOUT iceberg dead ahead!
All in all , the short term view of the euro looks bearish and it would be great with a follow thru today to the downside in markets. I have a chart pattern which targets SPX 1310 and SPY 131 today , so lets see if we reac that.sell structured settlement
ReplyDelete