Saturday, January 7, 2012

Market view





Markets did have another choppy day ,, but ended the day with a pretty nice sell off into close.

The TVIX came actually down to my yearly support level which I think is going to hold , and which even may be the LOWS for 2012 in TVIX very possible.

TVIX is making a big bullish falling wedge down to horizontal monthly support zone 25,, so what I did were to put rest of my cash into TVIX at 25$ and even sold some TZA just to get some TVIX down here.

I think it would be very rare to see the TVIX go much lower.

Dow jones have made its high on Tuesday this week as the new year started and I think it might be the top for this year in dow jones.

Remember DOW JONES is at the HIGHEST level since October ,, and SPX and QQQ is NOT forming new highs ,, this is called a intermedaite bearish market divergence and I think its very bearish for the stock markets that another "major high" is due before the bear market should return.

In reality markets has just been pretty sideways/ and slightly up last weeks ,, so not much have changed my mind ,, the same slowly stuff before a bigger move down coming.


I called the bottom in gold and silver and I believe that those bottoms is potential a major bottom and I dont see gold and silver fall much further down.

I think this week especially on Wednesday we are going to see some wild swings , especially in precious metals, up or down,, time will tell - but as I think we are close to bottom or made the bottom in Gold and Silver ,, then I think they can move heavy to the upside,, but be prepared for anything.

When TVIX hit 25$ on Friday I actually went all in with my cash ,, right now i'm sitting 80% in TVIX at the moment and only 20% in TZA ,, NO cash left ,, I think such opportunities like we see right now is the best risk/reward plays and perfect spot for bottom in TVIX and other short ETF's.

So be greedy when other people in the other boat (no bears left nearly)

So right now taking the advantage of this and if I'm going to hold for 2 more weeks ,, let it be ,, I see the upside limited and as I said , markets has not been moving higher but sideways this week.


For this upcomming week I think we could see some wild swings from Wednesday ,, have some cycles hitting there and on Monday could be the start of the decline we are looking for.

Either way its getting close and next week again 19th-20th January is very bearish in my cycles ,, so get ready for some major things coming up.Expect the unexpected as some news could suddendly come out which gives fear in the markets.

If you have earned some money over 2011 according to my bold calls - please make a donation thank you. I've been telling my oppinion all the time ,, sometimes a bit early ,, but at least prepared many of you the moves coming. No one can hit the "exact" top and bottom to the penny , but as long you get the overall big moves in hte markets you will do well , also here in 2012.

So right now I remain extreme bearish and think we are at 2012 top.

6 comments:

  1. Nice charts sqwii....OEX is interesting http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2012/01/oex-megaphone-top-with-gann-time.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Market is headed higher on the back of Euro QE. Shorts better hope we take out the 1260's or else they are going to get killed. DPO is above 0 and is at a higher high (no divergence). Weekly MACD is above the 0 line. A daily divergence might lead to a small pullback or a flat to slightly down market but there is no reason to forecast a market collapse because of a daily divergence. I used to enjoy reading these boards but I guess I thought everyone did good research because they were right in the down market. Then I go to the archives and see that the authors and posters are bearish almost always regardless. Always finding some piece of data make their case.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 2012 is in fact, pretty bullish in my books and after Jan lows are made sometime around 23rd Jan, we should be off to a good rally. The inflationary story is still intact, gold & oil are looking to resume their bull run. With inflation still intact, deflation may have to be postponed. What's more, an election year...there is also no negative divergence in weekly nor monthly charts. Quite the contrary, they are displaying bullish momentum. Even with spx falling to 1175 in Jan, the bull momentum is intact.

    http://timeandspiral.wordpress.com/

    ReplyDelete
  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete