Markets did gap lower/flat ,, and after this ran nicely higher and what is imo interesting is 2 things.
1. SPX hit the 78.6% fib retracement from the 2011 highs and 2011 lows ,, this is a very heavy resistance area so a reversal from those levels is possible.
2. Looking at the ES futures SPX ,, we hit the trendline from 2011 highs ,, again dow jones broke it and nadaq too,, so will SPX break it tomorrow ?? Time will tell
3. As mentioned before I've got a major cycle starting from 19th January( tomorrow ) this should be a "high" in my book , and I still believe markets is in the forming of a major high in 2012 ,, honestly markets has just been moving slowly higher and it hurts of course a bit being underwater, but again markets havent been moving a lot last weeks..
So all in all expecting a major top by tomorrow ( or its in today )
Remember dow jones is very close to the 2011 highs , I believe we are in a BEAR market and this is just a very fast and violent bear market rally ,, where we will after this go to new lows and test October lows from 2011.
Conclusion:
I'm going to have patience and hold ,, lets see how SPX reacts to the 1307 level but all in all ,, should be a top in especially by 19th ,, so will we gap up a little and then reverse down ? Time will tell. We have lots of techs earnings after thursday close and what I see on IBM and other techs some ugly charts forming ,, so careful on those.
The 19th I've got a new cycle which means that a MAJOR HIGH should be in by this,, after this date the pessimism in market should increase and optimism should then decrease (this means VIX will begin to go up in a new trend)and markets down. So question is do we gap up and make the optimism peek 19th or did we top out and begin to reverse from 19th? Time will tell.
VIX still hoovering at the bottom and I still believe VIX bottom is at those levels and will go way higher in 2012 ,, lets see if VIX can hold 20 tomorrow.
For those who still hold shorts ,, have patience ! I know its painful to hold when markets creeping higher , but again its not a loss until you sell it.
The weak hands will sell ,, but I'm still all in TVIX 26-27$ and TZA 27$ both underwater now,, holding all.
Patience and this will reward YOU imo :-)
It will be very interesting to see how much longer market can stay irrational moving up on one bad news after another. What a crooked manipulation imo. It will get ugly very fast for the bulls who's buying into the start of a new "bull market". Btw GREAT blog and charts!
ReplyDeleteJason thats for sure ,, as I've said many times before, the markets does what it wants to do,, also with very bad news earnings downgrades and so on....
ReplyDeleteThe banksters rule the show , if they wanna let the retailers go long they will advertise with good to go long and such things get all the retailers long before they are going to dump the markets again.
I think we are close to this level where retailers are very much long now, only smart people know to be careful now.
This is simply becoming absurd and irrational.BAC posts a 2b proft, which except for some opportunistic circumstances would have been another horrendous loss and the market is over the moon.
ReplyDelete