Markets did get on Friday the downgrades from S&P , however all were just rumours and it got official after market close. I would not say that there were any kind of sell off or panic on this ,, maybe all were expected and then not much sell off,, however I think markets may react negative in europe on monday ,, and if so, then US will follow europe down at open Tuesday.
All in all ,, I remain heavy short ,, the rally we have since October lows are now forming a MAJOR bearish rising wedge especially on the dow jones,, dont be a fool and buy into this - as I told people in early October ,, time to go long for a rally ,, right now only fools going long the markets after a move from 1070s to near 1300.
We are imo NOT in a bull markets ,, and still in a bear market -- this means that dow jones would not make a new high and still make "lower highs" ,, where I think we will make a major lower high.
So far dow jones still below the 12.500 area ,, trendline from the highs where I think it has topped ,, so far looking good for downside from here.
Per my cycles I dont expect much either way right now ,, what I see is that from 19th January markets would make a trend change ,, which means we have peeked now and a trend change to the downside would occur.
I expect over the next 3 months or so ,, that we are going to see some MASSIVE strikes in countries ,, as countries are going to have austerity measures which many people in the countries wont like.
It seems to me that all markets needs to test the trendline from the highs ,, and on Friday morning Nasdaq did test it in the premarket ,, so this might be why markets has been waiting for ALL major indexes to test this line.
Dow jones did it already a week ago ,, and been held below this line ,,
Conclusion:
All in all ,, I'm expecting some WEAKER Q4 results ,, which would weight on the markets + we still have the potential of Greek deffault. I expect over the coming months a lot more austerity measures and lots of massive strikes by the people will come.
Markets is forming a major high , and we have been moving sideways for the last weeks ,, imo a major top forming since October lows.
I have some cycles starting from 19th January which seems like a major trend change from an upward move ,, to begin a longer term downwar move. I'm being very patient and holding all my shorts ,, so patience will imo pay you out. 2012 is NOT going to be a good year for stock markets ,, but imo a very horrible year ,, worse than 2011. Be prepared and take advantage.
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ReplyDeleteHi Sqwii,been following for a few months and you've made some good calls.
ReplyDeleteI think you're orrect again on your expectation that the top is in.
Even many of the bears are calling for one more push higher. In fact it is nearly impossible to find anyone bearish.
I bought TVIX on the open Friday( hoping i don't come to regret the decision). The reason I jumped was because the US 10 year broke to new highs from a 5 month consolidation and the 5 and 2 year were up strongly as well with the 5 year on the verge of a breakout too.Couple that with a reversal in Gold which occurred on Thursday(gold has been a leading indicator) and we appear to be on the cusp of a flow of capital out of the market and back into de-risk.
It's not very often you get ALL the markets lining up in sync, HOWEVER when it does it is wise to pay attention and currently every major global market has a bearish pattern whilst US bonds and gold have already given the lead.
I can't believe that investors are ignoring it.
Has US market really decoupled with EU? FXE sure has made new lows for 2012 while US doing "mini rally" but imo once the January effect rally is over we're back to following EU starting this 3rd week of January and going down hard specially with upgrades. Thoughts?
ReplyDeletecorrection on previous post *specially with EU DOWNgrades
ReplyDeleteYes for sure ,, US markets has not been moving down with the euro as of lately ,, so you never know and they might not follow each other a lot in the near term like it did before. If so ,, be flexible and dont try analyze much into EUR/USD ,, however I think it will breakdown further ,, its extreme oversold.
ReplyDeleteFor this week :: Watch for a reversal to the downside which will end the streak going up in the markets ,, this week is a critical week especially by end of week ,, so watch for the reversal from the peek to make a new trend to the downside.
Hanging on tight TZA 28.85 1st target. TVIX 30.15 1st target. Starting Tuesday I believe bulls will start singing who let the bears out.
ReplyDelete