Markets did another slowly grind lower - but nothing really selling to me it looks like pure controlled selling..
I have a fib top cycle date on next Friday - which means markets could have a very bullish week this upcomming week.
SPX is slowly curling down at a trendline which it seems to me like we are backtesting.
1. Markets broke last week the downtrend line from the highs which is bullish ( always a backtest of this line before higher ) - we have been backtesting this line now for 2 days.......
2. If this is a backtest then we have a big rally to come next week and we should then move above 1210 and to 1260.... if I'm wrong I will stop out with minor loss.
3. TNA small caps red hollod candlestick usually a bottom candlestick , held well on Friday vs o ther indexes.....
4. If my thesis is right this week gonna be the most bullish week for markets.... if I'm wrong I will stop out with little loss.
5. I added TNA more on Friday at 36$ - if I'm wrong I will stop out with little loss at 35$.
So early next week is the key level - I'm looking for a massive rally from here , imho seemed a bit manipulated that they closed the markets at their lows for the week and day on Friday to scare out retailers who dont wanna hold over weekend... I think that not many would like to hold over weekend......
Conclusion:
Long and strong my swing position TNA 37-38$ level but added more at 36$ - will stop out if TNA moves below recent lows at 35.4 - so next week is critical to begin a nice bullish rally.
If we rally my SPX target is 1260.
Have a nice weekend and enjoy ! See you all at http://premium.nwatrading.com we kill it with most of the trades in there everyday.
Your scenario is also my favorite one....
ReplyDeleteHow do you calculate the Fib dates?
Like your blog!!
ReplyDeleteIf I look at the weekly S&P chart I cannot see a turnaround just now. We are at no support right now. A retest of 1100 seems very likely and I think they will go and hunt some stops if they reach 1100...
Just a thought!
Keep up the good work!
Thanks for your sharing.
ReplyDeleteWill you update any view about silver and gold? Do you foresee any possibility of rally in dollar? Thanks.
Hi Roger
ReplyDeleteIf I'm right about the dollar and euro longer term - to me looks like the dollar could be about to start a new bull market from here.
My monthly chart suggest that the dollar will see big gains over tne next 6 months with the euro going to fall hard.
Hope it helps.