Market view

Back from a lovely vacation in Greece and looking at the markets seems like just a quite nasty week from 1340's to below 1300 again. I took a loss on my TNA position which I held (should just have sold them all before vacation , but took the loss today from my 70% position)

Back to markets - right now we are at a very critical area in markets as SPX just closed above MA(200).

As I have said before - the 3rd time we are going to test MA(200) I dont think will hold - which means , I think we are going to breakdown below the MA(200) near term.

Looking at the dollar (UUP) its on a buy signal and as long the dollar holds above 21 level , it seems to me like the dollar can rally near term and with this - the markets should fall down lower. But if the dollar however reached new lows , then the markets has a very good chance to rally.

I'm trying to ignore as much as I can on all the news with debt ceiling and so on - overall just looking at the charts and see what they are telling me.

VIX is in the critical area where we can have fear and panic and is now overbought on daily chart - which suggest some kind of bottom which could come. But when I look at the monthly chart on VIX it looks very bullish to me which means we might see some more panic ahead than here....

Its hard to predict the exact movement , but I'm quite neutral and leaning to the bearish side over the next weeks as I dont think a bottom is in place. If we break the MA(200) then I see the topping HS pattern playing out with a target in the 1130-1150 area....

I went short silver via ZSL just before the weekend 13.4's and will stop out if we break below the recent lows - I think there is a good chance that silver and gold can start to drop here - if I'm wrong I will stop out...

Remember - no one out there is never 100% right , so if you are wrong , adjust and take a little loss than sitting on a big one later on..

Got a few TZA as a starter on Friday at 37.5 - not much as I'm not overly confident this time , but if we see TZA above 40 next week I bet you its gonna go which means markets going down below MA(200).


Conclusion: I'm leaning to the bearish side now and think we may see a lot more selling over next few weeks - as we closed right above MA(200) I really dont think it will hold , also if we get a debt deal we may have a 1 day spike , but probably a sell the news event as the deal results probably wont be happy faces. Overall staying a bit neutral watching what markets doing next week - got a few starter TZA and short silver.

Have a nice weekend everyone and see you all on Monday !