Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Market view



Markets did a move down to 1295-1300 level exactly my first target to the downside 1 week ago - when we were trading at near 1350.

I really was not sure if we would meet 1295-1300 on Friday last week as we just might move up from there , but we did and tested the area which I think is a short term bottom.

Markets ended with a red hammer bottom reversal candle yesterday on indexes , which favours that the bottom is in.

I believe you should buy this dip - as long 1295 holds it should be an excellent buy..... all IMO.

I see it as a kind og "cup and handle" pattern - where we have made the handle over the last weeks down to support shown on chart.

If this is true we are about to see a nice rally - actually above the recent highs in 1350's , but my first target to the upside is 1345 though.

Just looking at small caps TNA / IWM / RUT - it might also be indicated as a right sholder formed in an inverted HS pattern - but who knows , not sure if it plays out - I dont think so - but if true upside is above 1400 on SPX......

I bought a big size position in TNA yesterday at 79.35 and holding for a swing play - I think it will do very over next weeks from here.

Sentiment right now felt very bearish yesterday as we moved below 1300 - seemed like no on really dared to buy - but lets see what happends from here.

I would expect a breakout of the fallign wedge down lately , then a retest of the trendline break and then a move higher possible end of this week or next week.

Conclusion:

I think you should buy the dips - then as long 1295 holds should be fine on SPX imo - I think we will see a rally from this level to 1345 my first upside target.

In size with TNA this time 79.35 - lets see how it plays out

Have a nice day

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