Market view

Markets did have a boring day on Tuesday - literally quite flat , but then plunged down into close on Irish downgrade with their ratings cut to junk (Like we saw Greece before a possible deffault)

There are a few things I wanna share - cause the markets closed right below MA(50) which could be indicated as bearish - but on the other site , markets also right at a trendline which we broke out of on the recent rally we had , so is this a backtest before we are going higher in markets?

There is also a thesis that we are making some kind of inverted HS pattern with the right shoulder forming now at 1310 and above ( needs to hold 1310 then.... ) if thats right , upside from here could be a lot higher and above 1400 - but only if 1310 is going to hold.

My main count and thesis is just still that markets should go lower - with a lot more panic to come , with the VIX spiking a lot higher from here. European markets looks pretty ugly on daily charts and is a lot lower already than US - so I think US will pick up speed to the downside and begin accelerating again.

All my 3 x short ETF looks extreme bullish to me and looks like they are about to go big soon.

As I've said before , markets is ALWAYS stretching both bulls and bears to the maximum - we rallied more than I thought and I think this time we will plunge more than I think. My short term target for the plunge is 1295-1300 , but if this level gets taken out , I'm pretty sure we see 1230 next and some real panic....

My plan is to wait until I get a buy signal on markets and sell signal on all short ETF + sell signal on the dollar before I will get out of my TZA trade. If markets tells me to do so , I need to react to it as a bottom may be in then - if we gap up today I think it might be a great shorting opportunity , as I have a fib date cycle bottom late this week where I would love to see VIX in the 20-30 and possible above 30 with real panic to set in...

EU stress test on Friday + lots of other things to come.... there might be some kind of panic to set in.

UUP did a backtest of broken trendline 21.6 and ran into close - I think the dollar should run higher near term to 22.3 or so with this expecting markets to go lower.

Time will tell whats happening , but holding all my cash + TZA still.

Have a nice day