Market view

Markets did have another slowly and boring day - and been very choppy up and down.

What this reminds me as I have been saying before - after a big run in large caps - they always make the markets near flat, choppy, neutral to run the low floaters and small caps. If you have been following lots of those stocks they have all ran a lot over the past days - which reminds me, that low floaters, microcaps and small caps is the last ones they run (near a short term top - after a big run in large caps).

Bt thesis still holds true - that a right shoulder is forming in a huge topping HS pattern with right shoulder on SPX 1344-1345 area - IF we break this and move above 1350 - then I'm wrong.

I'm still holding a size position TZA 34.69 (underwater right now...) but markets really has just been creeping a bit higher slowly.... nothing aggressive.

I think today (Thursday will be key day.. either we go big today or we start to sell off....) we have some key data today + tomorrow. We might see a pop fast to 1344-1345 to form right shoulder - but I'm a bit worried right now with TZA as its already a lot lower - so Russels needs to hold here and stop moving higher. But I'm watching SPX for the topping HS pattern with the right shoulder target at around 1344-1345 if we reach there today...

Like I said - sentiment is very much changed now and what I hear many places is new highs to come and so....

AAPL did a potential backtest too of long term trendline - called kiss of death ( if this is true should fall hard down soon)

Look at Russels chart - pretty nice backtest of trendlne made... and 30 min chart shows VERY tight and BEARISH rising wedge pattern.... up to trendline.... 30 min chart showing bearish divergence too - all is in place for a hard landing...
Euro has been moving down and dollar has been moving up nicely last days as I have been predicting. If its right the dollar is about th have a MAJOR move to the upside soon - which (most likely would mean downside in markets..)

I was a bit too early in my entry TZA - but its hard to predict the EXACT top - and over the last 3 months I have pretty much nailed the moves up and down. But overall still believe we are heading down hard over next week - so time will tell us today.

Agree with some comments - that markets extreme overbought and quite bullish they manage to hold us up...

Looking at TLT looks like tested support and ready for last leg higher up.... if this is true - markets should fall down (possible cup and handle in TLT)

Looking at other 3 x short ETF like ERY one PRETTY inverted HS pattern - gives me more confirmation that we are about to go down hard. ERY gave a buy signal yesterday on daily chart at 13.97$ with neckline at 18 and a move to 23-24$ could come on that pattern.

Try look at the DUG chart too - impressive and very nice inverted HS pattern on daily chart too with buy signal yesterday too , so looks like a MASSIVE flush in markets is about to start - and a big run in those 3x short ETF (Based on this HS pattern....)

Conclusion: I'm still holding all TZA and cash , what I will be watching is SPX if we breach above 1344-1345 (left shoulder and should be the right shoulder) - if we rally above there and to 1350 I'm wrong , but until then still extreme bearish at the moment. Dollar looks like about to have a major breakout with euro going down hard. ECB meeting today....

VIX daily chart is on buy signal - DUG and ERY looks like pretty inverted HS patterns - China already started to move down with Europe a bit - US should follow soon. We will have some nice action in markets end of this week Thursday and Friday.

11th July they need a long term plan for Greece - will they manage to get a good one ? Or will it result in deffault ? Portugal need 2nd bailout and maybe Ireland too - when will they stop giving money to a black hole ? Time will tell what will happends