Market view

Wow ... markets did get the biggest sqwiiize of this week up around 1.5% on Friday - which was huge !! All shorts really must have covered today as markets has gone up around 1% or more every single day this week !

QQQ got to near 58 , remember my target of QQQ to 57+ based on pattern - reached.

Reember my target of 1320-1330 on SPX when we were trading at 1260 level ? - We got there , and actually more than I thought.... but as I have mentioned MANY times before , markets is ALWAYS stretching both bulls and bears to the limit .... so always more than everyone think about.

There are so many signs I see that a short term top is in - or is close. I got short Thursday before at 1320 and thank god I did not get short on a little bounce to 1300 and think we would go down from there - great I were waiting it also with the short term indicators extreme overbought.

First of all - NO ONE out there can predict markets to the exact number everytime - neither me , I am just trading what I see based on the technicals. Not many out there thought we would get a rally 2 weeks ago........ I were one of the few who said a rally to come and indeed we got it , also more than I thought about. What I hear now is many people telling me I am a bit screwed going short after such a strong rally in 1 week........ I care less what they tell me - I am trading what the charts are showing me - and right now so many bearish signals.

1. I'm still holding SIZE position at 34.69 on TZA and holding for a SWING trade......
2. What we have is a potential near perfect topping head and shoulders pattern on markets. SPX had left shoulder at 1345 area , head at 1370 and right now we are at 1340 (pretty close to 1345). Either way - if this pattern is going to play out I would say SPX should maximum get to few points above 1345 , if much higher ... dangerous we might see new highs then - and then I am wrong about what I see on charts.
3. Volume of the rally over the last 3 days has been decreasing steady (BEARISH signal) I would like to see increasing volume is the rally was for real......
4. Remember as fast as we moved up in markets over the last 1 week - as fast and faster we could move down again - we have literally not much support below us now as we havent been consolidating with no pullbacks at all.
5. VIX got outside the lower bollinger band and formed a bullish red hammer
6. SPX and markets got WAY above upper bollinger band - a move down into bollinger band would give a big sell signal on markets...
7. NYMO is extreme overbought at current levels.
8. USD or UUP as you can see on charts - are VERY close to the lower trendline in a bullish triangle pattern - a gap down Tuesday in dollar and possible minor little gap up Tuesday would give a bottom imo in USD and then a MAJOR rally is underway (what I see ... )
9. Take a close look at SPX - actually markets made a near PERFECT backtest of the broken trendline of March 2009 - which we broke down early June - now we are making the so called "kiss of death" which means we test that trendline - before we get a big flush down ( fits perfect with HS topping pattern )
10. IF the SPX HS topping pattern will play out - well then we are going to see a pattern target of 1125-1150 area.... sorry to say , but thats it which we could reach over next months.....
11. TZA got down to MAJOR support area at 33. As I've said 33 is a major support in TZA - we got a bit down below to 32.95 or so , as the MM's are trying to let people stop out of their stops and take their money, dont be fooled....
12. Right now sentiment is way bullish with more bulls than bears - as I've said 2 weeks ago there were too many bears calling for a crash and much lower levels - where I got against the crowd - right now doing the same as people is way too bullish short term after such a big rally so fast.

Conclusion: All in all - holding all my shorts with TZA 34.69$ size position - I think 33 level or this area right here should hold - if in case SPX moves above 1345 and higher next week ( then I may be wrong and will take the loss on TZA - as we then might take out new highs ) - but for now I see a market top made - and much much lower levels to come over next weeks.......

Hope you understand all those points - if the SPX taret is playing out - TZA will by then be above 50+ and probably a lot higher - so patience people and lets see what next week brings... :-)

All my daily charts still on daily buy signals , but so many things as I've posted telling me that a market top may already be in place now - or just a few points higher. Remember to do your OWN DD - I'm just doing my best trying to share with all of you what I think and read on the charts.

Enjoy the long weekend and get ready for next week.