Friday, July 15, 2011

Market view




Markets had a little rally first on the day , but then started to plunge all day long into close and closed down -0.7% and small caps some more. VIX increased above 20 and moved into the 20-30 zone where the fear is comming in.

I took TZA off the table on my swing trade yesterday as I saw that the markets could have a potential bottom in place very soon ( short term bottom ) - however I have NOT got any kind of SELL signal on my short ETF , they are all still on buy and I have still sell signal on indexes.

On my charts I showed you that markets did come back to a potential "backtest" of broken downtrendline , which is a "bullish" signal - and SPY also made a possible inverted HS pattern , which targets much higher from here - actually above 1400.

As I said before this week - I've had a "bottom cycle" date late this week (Thursday/Friday) so either way I think we are close to a short term bottom - why I think its good to take some profits off on shorts. But last time I were a bit too fast taking profits on TNA - now I am waiting for a SELL signal on my last position in TZA(holding 50% position).

My plan is now - when I get a sell signal on TZA I will jump in TNA for a swing position (as this one will give a buy signal then) but I will make an update on twitter if so.

I also took at swing position in ZSL (short silver) at 14.75$ as many things looked like a top in both gold and silver to me....

Sentiment as of yesterday is a bit bearish right now - so according so sentiment trader , markets should rally short term.

So right now markets is at some critical and major support trendlines and may go a bit lower to around 1300 or just above on a small gap down.

But as I told everyone I were looking for 1295-1300 and we are here now literally... 1306... close. If this is the bottom before next leg up , let it be - if not ... we go lower...

Conclusion: Plan is to sell rest of TZA 50% when I get a sell signal on daily chart so as long the trend is down and TZA is on buy signal I'm going to hold rest..... as long we go down....
But I have a fib date cycle for a bottom either it was in yesterday or sometimes today... so lets see I think a possible good buy or starter in TNA soon.

Just looking at TNA chart - lets see where I wanna buy....cause actually TNA backtested also trendline at 80.4 which would be a good buy , but daily chart still on SELL signal on TNA, but if we bounce on Friday I will get some and then get our of TZA.

Have a nice day and enjoy the weekend everyone

1 comment:

  1. Hey broh, neeed your input on a big short pos i have in spx...really scratching my head on this, should i buy back or stay in hoping for more down today, my system (daily) is clearly in a sell mode, but don't feel i can rely on it these days, to much headline driven market.

    cheers

    NDD

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