Saturday, July 16, 2011

Market view




Markets did a gap up on Friday and were moving sideways and choppy up and down , seems like its consolidating to me before a bigger move to come....

The thing is which I have indicated 1 week ago , that I was expecting a short term bottom to be in late this week (thursday/friday) , I still stand by my call and I think we may have seen the short term bottom right above 1300 ( remember 1300 were my first target - if this was holding we should move up , if it was not holding - we should go down hard..)

I dont think markets is ready yet to fall down hard - seems like we are going to get another push higher near term. So I rest of my shorts of the table in TZA , just in small profits nothing big - and went into TNA for a starter swing trade at 81.5$ on Friday. I think I'm going to add if we gap down next week to 1295-1300 level , as long this level holds , longs should be fine imho.

Again - I might be too early on my call for a bottom in markets - as I have NOT got any buy signals yet in markets.... If markets green monday I will most likely get those buy signals - but I cant say right now that I got buy signals on daily charts..

I just see a very potential backtest of the broken trendline we had on the big rally in June , then pullback to backtest it over the lsat weeks from 1350 -> 1300 level and then possible new rally to come above 1350 again ? I'm frankly not quite sure how high we go right now , if its only a rally to 1330 or we move up to around recent highs 1370's....

But I think its better to buy the dip right now if we get some near term at 1295-1300 for a short term rally. Next week I could expect some choppiness up and down - but I would give it an upside bias , also that I bought TNA.

I am short silver via ZSL - and hoping for a short term top in silver soon (as fear moves away....)

Again - no one makes 100% accurate calls out there but at least I try to post my trades and oppinion where this markets is going. If I get a buy signal in markets sometimes next week I will add to my long swing positions.

Have a nice weekend and enjoy !

1 comment:

  1. There's a TON of liquidity out there. Over the most recent two-week period, the M2 measure of money supply has surged by $165 billion. I think this will drive TNA much higher. $95 is well within reach this week imho.

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