Market view

Markets did a quite boring day with the tech sector hit the hardest - where markets got a big gap up where everything looked pretty good - then the markets started to sell off leaded by the tech sector and we got down into last 1 hour before a huge rally again into close where markets closed up around 1% for the day !

I've got some interesting charts about the NYMO and again my thesis tells me I should be bullish short term - so currently I'm still all out of short positions and I actually loaded up on lots of stocks - many of them solar stocks as they have been beaten down most.

Stocks I bought were:

- STP (Added 2.5's)
- YGE (3.18)
- SOL (1.75)
- HEV(0.1 risky play)

Still long CYCC (0.46) and YRCW 0.5's

Overall had neutral day - took profits in my EDC which I bought yesterday close and sold when markets went green on the morning with 7-8% overnight profits.

So based on the euro FXE - I think we will rally - as it looks like the euro wants higher - take a look at the bullish divergence on MACD + it hit 50% fib retracement perfect and just looks ready to move up IMO very soon.

With this I think markets could pop also - so what would the target be on SPX ? lets take a look.

SPX needs first of all to clear 1180's level if we do so next level could be 1190-1200 and then we have a trendline resistance at 1210-1215 so lets of overhead resistances. Time will tell - I'm slightly bullish right now as the euro and thesis tells me to be bullish short term.

Watch SPX 1140 to the downside - a MUST HOLD for markets - if not , could get nasty - so watch it closely.

30min and 60min indicates that bulls will be in favour today and upside very much possible.

Market view

Markets did another nice plunge yesterday ... but again we came down break a few supports - but at the end of the day we hit some major supports which is SPY 115 and Dow Jones 11.000 and held above those levels.

I wanna share with you all that I took my profits on my swing trade EDZ from 19.7 to 27's , DRV from 11 to 13.5's and TZA from 44 to 47-51 area.

The main reason behind this is move is still that I think the "euro - FXE" looks really bullish to me and looks like euro could pop soon - therefore I think a SHORT TERM rally could occur....

However I still believe there is a good chance we take out the 1100 lows - but if we rally next days to 1210 or so - I can always re-enter my short positions.

The main reason for the move to sell my shorts was cause of the euro - it went down to support yesterday and imo looks great for a big run near term. Therefore I find it hard for markets to do a big decline if euro begins to rally.

So all my shorts went up big yesterday - but actually I took profits on all of them and will re-enter when I think time is ready again.

I still believe 2011 lows will be in either this week or next -(so maybe its already in...) hard to say - I would still love a push below 1100

The thing is Russels did get a lower low - Dow jones got a lower low - but SPX did not.... so there is mixed signals.

I bought a few EDC = 3 x bull emerging 14.8 right before close as my thesis is a possible bounce into weekend.

My thesis is markets will see more bullish into weekend - and possible reverse from today to the upside again - there is still the possibility of gap down , but I think we can reverse from this in case we gap down.

Conclusion:

Took my swing trade profits in TZA from 44 $ big gains , EDZ 19.7 (huge gains) , DRV 11 little gains - so im happy for that.

Actually got long STP stock and CYCC.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did a surprising rally to me I must say - did not expect Tuesday to be a bullish day in my book and we started up with a big 3% rally - but after we got to 1190 level we did see a sharp reversal at the end of the day and made a possible "reversal" candle and reversal bar. The thing is that the daily chart does still not look good and if this was a bottom its one of the most ugly bottoms I have ever seen :-)

I still believe SPX to see below 1100 and targets 1000-1050 on SPX. We might first get it in the first week in October but lets see on Wednesday as this will give us a better clue....

The bulls needs to break above 1200 and especially 1220.... and the bears needs to push us below 1120... so we are still in the same boring range like moving in a roller coaster.... wow.. what a mess.

My thesis still tells me that markets is going to see below 1100 and price target 1020 SPX - so I stand by this still....

One thing I will mention which worries me is that the euro has a bullish MACD divergence - so this could "help" the markets rally up further as the dollar has a bearish divergence now.

I called for the dollar to rally big before September and we saw this - now we have a bearish divergence so it looks a bit like dollar could drop and therefore markets could indeed rally....

Its hard to say - but lets see what happends today - I remain long TZA , DRV , EDZ and should probably have sold some days ago , but my thesis did tell me to hold - so still holding.

Markets dit make a daily "black candle" and USUALLY this is some kind of top at least recently.... so if this is another black candle top then we will start on Wednesday plunging down......

The VIX made a hollow red candle bar which is some kind of bottom bar - so the VIX may move up with the markets beginning to move down again......

Usually the candlestick of a red hollow candle is bullish reversal and bottom candle - and the black candlestick or white bar is a bearish topping tail.

Conclusion:

Holding all my shorts - I still beliewe we make a move below 1100 with a target of SPX 1020 area which will fulfill the bear flag pattern target. To me markets seems like huge short covering process why we rallied , but looks like big boys selling into it.... as we saw the last hours.... big selling pressure......

We are still in a downtrend if you pay attention to Russels and other indexes - so bulls need to show strength above 1200 then good chances we will go a lot higher. SPX 1190 was a 78.8% fib retracement of the drop we had last week....

Remember however I still believe markets going to see 2011 BOTTOM sometimes either THIS week or sometimes first week of October which is next week. So be prepared for still some wild moves and be prepared with lots of cash IMO.

Market view

Markets gave the "rebound" or bounce I were looking for on Friday after the big drop in markets where I got into TNA daytrade , but unfortunatley I sold TNA on Friday again break even as it did not really move. On Monday the bounce which I was looking for got reached and we made a possible gap fill on major indexes + the nasdaq and SPX backtesting and old broken trendline which is extreme bearish action.

This usually means that after a backtest markets going to flush down hard....

So here is the interesting as many people got bullish yesterday on the big move into close - but this was just WELL played by the MM's and you gotta be good to read those charts to see what is happening here.

For me - this is setting up for another big move down possible -4 to -5% and thats why I'm still looking for below 1100 on SPX.

In my book Tuesday is the most bearish day for this week - so I'm looking for a terrible tuesday today with more to follow tomorrow on Wednesday.

There is the possibility markets wants a minor gap up today - but looking at Russels we filled the gap + made the perfect backtest.

The same goes on with NDX Nasdaq composite , touched the MA(50) underside + backtest of broken trendline.... = bearish.

So I think today (tuesday) will come true if this was a "REAL" start of a big rally - or just a fake pump into resistance which I think

So Russels made a gap fill + a BACKTEST OF NECKLINE + overbought on 60 and 30min + a move to 666..... which should tell you everything ;-) dont need to say more...

SPX is just a little confusing as it overshot the backtest a bit OR it did not get to this backtest YET as the backtest on SPX is at 1172 area if the move on 12 semptember were a failed breakdown....

Conclusion:

I remain heavy long TZA , DRV , EDZ all in MAJOR profits now - I'm thinking markets made a backtest of broken trendline , the bounce or rebound I called for on Friday we got on Monday and this should be a shortable "bounce" before a major drop to come.

I still believe SPX to see 1100 soon...

Market view

Markets did an extremely wonderful and powerfull reversal this week , which I predicted would happend - and already now in huge profits.

Silver and gold are crashing - took huge gains in my ZSL from 11.85$ swing positions (short silver) which I have held last weeks with patience - paid me off big time.

My TZA , DRV , EDZ all in huge profits already and for this week I'm in the "profit taking mood".

This means I'm going to take profits in case markets fall further early this week. My downside target is still below 1100 and very possible 1000-1050. I think WHEN we break below 1100 - we will get a fast panic drop and people would ask ( where is the bottom now....) people will panic sell and it could get nasty.

My thesis tells me that we should see a lot weakness early this week and in case we drop below 1100 early this week (monday, tuesday wednesday) I'm going to take profits off - cause I believe we are going to see a major major bottom in markets soon.

My feeling is that this is the last leg down in the markets - before a more suistainable big rally - more than this choppy weak rallies.

I think our time will come soon - and I have been riding this markets down in my short positions excellent and made huge profits - time will come to ride this baby up again , and we are ready for it.

SPX falling wedge target is still 1020 ( big drop from here... ) but its possible.... but the best thing I look at is a move below 1100 SPX to make a new low - then to make a bullish MACD divergence on the daily charts , which is a lot more bullish than no divergence.

The VIX is getting very close to a breakout of the bull flag - this would target a move to 50+ which I think will be the last move and push up in the VIX before a bigger correction in VIX.

I'm think we are in a bear market and think we wont make new highs - but I see a much bigger rally comming after next weeks - so I'm calling for 2011 lows sometimes over the next 1-2 weeks from here.

Overall hope you have made a lot of money - staying patient then you would - I really hope if you have made some money by reading my blog , I would appreciate if you made a donation. This is work I do for free every day - so hope for your support.

I'm also in www.nwatrading.com doing both daytrades , intraday analysis as swing trade and small caps - so come in there - they have made a killing last months.

Conclusion:

Remain short markets via TZA (44) , DRV (11) , EDZ ( 19.7) - sold my ZSL this week and I think a bottom in markets and a major bottom is near. I would like to see some very strong and early sell off early next week , with a move below 1100 on SPX. All major indexes is still on a sell signal.

SPX target is still 1000-1050 and I'm going to take some profits as soon we go below 1100 SPX.

Transports have already broken down to new lows and Russels did the same last week. Waiting for SPX to do the same next week.

Enjoy weekend ! :-)

Market view

Wow ! What a CRASH we saw yesterday - pretty much as I called for since last week.

Markets got very much oversold short term yesterday and Russells and TRANS already took out the lows of August.....

SPX and Nasdaq remains still above August lows - but I think they are going to take out the lows also.

VIX is right above to break the bull flag - which targets 50+

SPX broke down of the bear flag - which targets 1000-1050 on SPX..... in next weeks.

TZA broke its bull flag - which targets 70+

So conclusion is:

Not much to say other than I'm holding all my swing trade shorts for lower levels in markets - people trying to buy the dips should get fucked like we saw in August.

Per my analysis is could see another big flush today below 1100 - if not a possible rebound , but in case we get a REBOUND it should be sold into.... as Monday will get bad too imo. In case we rebound my target is 1160 level or so..........so you all know its possible we rebound , but further down IS comming imo.

I took profits on my ZSL position since yesterday from 11.85 to 15$ huge profits made - I think it can pullback a little but in the end I think ZSL will go higher over next weeks. still... but amazing profits.

My EDZ up near 75% now - TZA still amazing profits and DRV still amazing profits too...


So as long I have sell signals on all major indexes no reason for me to take off profits before I at least think for myself that the bottom is in.

We all made huge money in www.nwatrading.com and if you have made some money , I would really appreciate a donation as I tried to help you all to get out or in shorts to make money before this big move down.....

Thanks a lot

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did announce the operation twist and as I wrote , this were expected and a sell the news !

Markets truly flushed down into close - no supports did hold a t all and THIS is what I'm expecting for now.

I think the support areas wont hold and we could go straight down - the VIX and all short ETF looks very bullish to me daily chart so this is just beginning imo.

Im already in MAJOR profits in TZA (44) , DRV ( 11) and EDZ (19.7) so huge profits and ZSL 11.85.

Called it to the perfect that the dollar would rally - the precious metals would fall and markets would fall - all prepared via my trades on swing trades.

TZA broke the bull flag pattern and the target is now 70+$! I'm holding everything as this is just getting started , but already in huge profits - I hope some people got with me.

Conclusion:

Not much to say - still holding all my swing trades TZA , DRV , EDZ , ZSL all in major major profits already - but I want more as I think the markets is just beginning to head down. So watch out below - markets may purely crash down near term and I dont think any supports will near term.

I see SPX to 1000-1050 by end of October still... yesterday we got a good move...

Possible we get a "dead cat bounce" but we will sell off hard after that and Ì think Friday and Monday next week gonna be ugly in my book.

Again you can join us at www.nwatrading.com as we are killing the trades - both swing trades , daytrades and so on.

I hope you also wanna donate something if you had made some big winners in the past - as I have called the tops and bottoms pretty accurate over the last many months.

Market view

Markets did make another gap up and rallied for the day to near 1.2% but near the close we got a big flush in the markets and nice reversal and actually ended quite red on small caps and nasdaq with a great "reversal bar".

I got daily sell signals still on all major indexes so the short term trend should be down now.

Again expect the unexpected by the FED - either he will do a full blown QE or he does nothing imo.......I expect the last.....nothing.

Overall looking for a major sell off to happend after FED meetings and near term - again in case we see a full blown QE program comming now - I need to take off my shorts - cause I dont want to bet against a massive QE. But I just dont see them making a huge QE program with oil this high , markets thigh high and inflation this high..... they need to push market prices lower and there must be more fear imo.

SPX got very close to MA(50) so we can possible say that SPX reversed from MA(50) on daily chart.

What I find very interesting is that dow jones hit a big trendline from the highs and QQQ looks like being in a uprising bearish wedge of some kind - so could get ugly near term.

Again I predict in case we get a big reversal - no supports is going to hold - we will go straight down in a crash type of move - but time will tell us- SPX target still below 1100 on SPX and possible 1000-1050.

All my swing trade positions is now in NICE profits $$ TZA from 44 - EDZ 19.7 (up 30+%) , DRV (11$) all in green now - here you can see that patience sometimes pays you off big time instead of selling with a loss last days.....

I think much more downside to be expected so holding all.

Conclusion: Remain long TZA ( 44) , EDZ (19.7) DRV ( 11) as swing positions and I see us beginning of a big fat move to the downside soon - possible after FED meeting.

Only if he comes up with full blown QE program Im bailing out of shors - that would be the only thing. Again - patience pays and already now in nice profits on all swing trades.

Also if COPPER is any kind of indication - watch out below.......

Remember to join us at www.nwatrading.com live room

Market view

Just a very quick update as I'm going to business meeting today.

The markets made a sharp gap down , but then reversed over the day into close and were only down -1% by close.

The thing is all major indexes made a daily SELL signal which means the short term trend is down now so you should be expecting more downside.

I think this is the start of a big move down to below August lows at 1100 and possible 1000-1050 and staying patient short.

Still long EDZ , DRV , TZA and my ZSL(doing well)

Watch problems in Greece and watch the FED meeting which is a big market mover next days....

Expect the unexpected to happend !

Market view

Markets kept moving up all week along ! Wow - I really missed this move as I only expected a little "bounce" to 1180-1190 level , and we came all the way up to 1220!

Overall my thesis and count has not changed - I still believe we are going to see a fat reversal to the downside , possible with the FED this week. I think we will get a very unexpected announcement from the FED - possible they dont want to do anything right now ? People expect a possible new QE3 to be announced , but with oil prices and markets this high - they wont imo !

Greece have big major problems and needs money before October - do they make new reforms before ? Will there be problems with the colleteral deals with Finland, Netherland??

I think we will have some major problems near future and we should see some panic and a big reversal.

OPEX finnished now so I think the real move would occur this week. I see this week to be a major reversal and when we start there will be "no kind" of support levels - we should just flush down in markets but before this there is a possibility markets or SPX wants a test of MA(50) which is at 1228 right now.....

When we are so close to 1228 - then why not have the push up to test it before the reversal - its very possible..... imo.

I'm still short and underwater , but if my thesis is right markets should reverse and we should see 1000-1050 on SPX - so the only thing I need is patience.

I think you should be prepared for the fully unexpected especially with the FED meeting and after this big move up - there is a potential for a "crash" type of move comming imho - so I dont think that the LOWS is in - and I think we are going to test the 1100 lows still and I think we will break below and see 1000-1050 on SPX before October........

So if my thesis is right we should by this week start to have a reversal.

This does mean we still might have a push up to test MA(50) at 1228 ? But either way - I think the move is done soon and we are going much lower....

I know I missed this move up but if we go to 1000-1050 on SPX next weeks I dont care so much about those small swings...

Time will tell me I remain long TZA = 44 , EDZ 19.7 , DRV , 11 as swing trades - only TZA underwater now...

But if we have patience we should be more than fine imho... hopefully this week will mark the top before the big flush down in markets (which I expect) now when OPEX is over.

Market view

Markets did another creepy slowly boring day grinding higher and I'm still holding shorts - now underwater TZA 44$.

However I dont believe in this little rally we had this week - remember markets has gone up on no kind of pullback which is usally NOT bullish and markets could plunge fast as there is no supports forming by this.

I think bears will claw back from today in a big way - so today we should begin to see a dramatic reversal and I think we will get a lot more bad news over the weekend about Greece as they need cash before October... there will come fear in the markets.

Overall silver did plunge nicely yesterday and I'm in big porifts on my ZSL swing trade 11.85$ and still holding it all as I belive gold and silver has more plunge to come.

Remember we are still in the same traindg range which is 1140-1230 and we need to see a break either way and this is where I think we break down and move down to 1000-1050 area on SPX over next weeks.

I think the move should begin down from today so thats why I hold all my swing TZA , EDZ , DRV - 44$ 19.7 and 11$ only my TZA underwater currently.

If you look at nasdaq compq we reached the MA(50) perfect yesterday and on COMPQ we reached MA(200) this is perfect spots for a reversal or a push up above and then fat reversal afterwards... time will tell - but I'm expecting the reversal to start today....

Conclusion:

I'm holding all my TZA , DRV , EDZ swing trades and from today on I'm looking for a fat reversal to the downside to begin our way down to 1000-1050 on SPX..........

Long TZA (44$) , DRV (11$) , EDZ (19,7$)

Market view

Markets had an amazing rally yesterday and as I said , the bulls were in charge for the day...... well they were pretty much in charge all day long until last 30min where we sold off very hard.

SPX rallied a bit more than I expected and we got to 1200 (Thought a rally to 1180-1190) but again mkts closed down below 1190 again by close....

Either way I think the bulls chances are done here and the ones TZA I sold on Monday at 50$ I picked up yesterday again at 44's - so my average for my swing trade has been increased now from 43 to 44$ overall and as of yesterday I'm 100% invested in TZA again.

The reason for this is I think the bulls chances are soon done - and I would love to see a reversal on Thursday to the downside - and overall I think Friday this week could get NASTY..... where bears will claw back fast + Monday next week could be nasty too...

The VIX making a potential inverted hs pattern which targets 53$ area if this is true VIX is going for new highs......

With this markets should start a big drop soon and if I'm reading this right the markets could be on the edge of a cliff now to 1000-1050 on SPX.

I still believe SPX is going to 1000-1050 level next weeks (why I added 100% again in TZA) now 44$ average and under water for now...

I called the possible bounce/rally in markets since Monday why I took 50% off on TZA profits - now the bulls chances are done imho - and I see a fat sharp reversal from Friday this week.

In case bulls gives last push up today I'm not going to sell my shorts as I think a fat reversal will come soon.

Conclusion:

The ones TZA I sold at 50$ on Monday I got ALL back yesterday and average is now 44$ for a swing trade - a bit underwater right now but should be more than fine....

TZA could see 80 in case SPX goes to 1000-1050 and in my view the downside is huge from here in markets.

I would love to see a red day on Thursday ( reversal ) day and then blood in the streets on Friday.

Overall still good chances Greece will deffault - so if they do , gonna get ugly.

30min and 60min chart indicates of a RED day on Thursday too.....

I think oil also topped out and ready to plunge , still holding my short silver ZSL 11.85

Have a nice day and come by www.nwatrading.com we killed it also on upside this week.

Market view

Markets did another little rally as I expected - and I expected the bulls to strike back again in the short term - and with this there are STILL the possibility bulls may push markets higher near term.

Overall my first target on SPX for the "bounce" rally this week were 1175-1180 - but possible we may push up to 1190 at a maximum imho.

I still believe SPX is going to see 1000-1050 on SPX so no worries here only if we rally and break above 1204....but until then I think we will break down over the next weeks.

I will still give the bulls today on Wednesday to push higher - but I think today or tomorrow is the last days they have , cause bears will strike back hard later this week imho.

You remember I took profits 50% on my TZA at 50$ from 43$ with huge profits - I actually added back around 30% of those I sold again on Tuesday at 44.85-45.45 area as I think markets may push up to 1190 area maximum to 1200 - but not higher than this , I rather think we start moving down soon again....

Got also long ZSL (short silver 11.85$ big swing I think gold and silver will start to plunge very soon into October)

I'm im right we are going to see one nasty leg down in markets again into October and still stand by this call ! If bulls are right they need to convince me and take out 1200 on SPX this week.

Market view

Markets did a a very nice gap down on Monday as there is still big problems in the EU with the euro tanking further.

My short term target for FXE got fullfilled as we got to 1.35$ which I called for 2 weeks ago and then dollar has been rallying big time lately which I also were long and expecting before September began.

Right now it looks like the euro may "bounce" and dollar may begin to pullback for the short term.

Overall according to the markets we did a spike rally into close yesterday which we called in room at www.nwatrading.com - overall I think its just a backtest of a broken trendline we did into close - which is more bearish than bullish.

What I did yesterday was I sold 50% of my SWING TRADE position in TZA from 43$ to 50$ (so ANOTHER winner on my swing trades.... and a 7$ per share gain on a big position)

The reason why I took those gains is that there is a possibility we may get a relief rally to the upper trendline resistance at around 1170-1190. In the case we rally to those levels I'm going to take add to my position again 50% as I think we are going LOWER over the next weeks.

I believe markets is going to breakdown of this bear flag ( which dow jones already did) and SPX target is around 1000-1050 on SPX over the next weeks which I think we will reach.

I will give the bulls the next few days of this week into before Friday to see how good they can do , because I think after this week markets going to reverse fast down again.

Conclusion:

Took 50% of my profits in my swing trades Monday with a big gain at 43$ to 50$ and still holding rest 50% for the next weeks as I think markets going lower.

Markets may try to rally - but in case we rally a bit I'm gonna short the rally - if we just breakdown and move lower Im just going to hold my short positions and ride the markets down.

What I believe is that markets is going to make another kinda move like we saw in August where markets sold off hard - sometimes over the next 3 weeks.... I think we will break down of the classic bear flag which we have like other european markets which is already leading us down to NEW lows below 1100...

So overall I'm very bearish YES - but giving the bulls a change in the short term for a relief rally (why I sold 50% on monday)

Hope to see you in www.nwatrading.com we were killing it all day long yesterday with our shorts and got into short term longs 1 hour before close and rode the markets up into close.