Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Market view





Markets did make another gap up and rallied for the day to near 1.2% but near the close we got a big flush in the markets and nice reversal and actually ended quite red on small caps and nasdaq with a great "reversal bar".

I got daily sell signals still on all major indexes so the short term trend should be down now.

Again expect the unexpected by the FED - either he will do a full blown QE or he does nothing imo.......I expect the last.....nothing.

Overall looking for a major sell off to happend after FED meetings and near term - again in case we see a full blown QE program comming now - I need to take off my shorts - cause I dont want to bet against a massive QE. But I just dont see them making a huge QE program with oil this high , markets thigh high and inflation this high..... they need to push market prices lower and there must be more fear imo.

SPX got very close to MA(50) so we can possible say that SPX reversed from MA(50) on daily chart.

What I find very interesting is that dow jones hit a big trendline from the highs and QQQ looks like being in a uprising bearish wedge of some kind - so could get ugly near term.

Again I predict in case we get a big reversal - no supports is going to hold - we will go straight down in a crash type of move - but time will tell us- SPX target still below 1100 on SPX and possible 1000-1050.

All my swing trade positions is now in NICE profits $$ TZA from 44 - EDZ 19.7 (up 30+%) , DRV (11$) all in green now - here you can see that patience sometimes pays you off big time instead of selling with a loss last days.....

I think much more downside to be expected so holding all.

Conclusion: Remain long TZA ( 44) , EDZ (19.7) DRV ( 11) as swing positions and I see us beginning of a big fat move to the downside soon - possible after FED meeting.

Only if he comes up with full blown QE program Im bailing out of shors - that would be the only thing. Again - patience pays and already now in nice profits on all swing trades.

Also if COPPER is any kind of indication - watch out below.......

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