Markets gave the "rebound" or bounce I were looking for on Friday after the big drop in markets where I got into TNA daytrade , but unfortunatley I sold TNA on Friday again break even as it did not really move. On Monday the bounce which I was looking for got reached and we made a possible gap fill on major indexes + the nasdaq and SPX backtesting and old broken trendline which is extreme bearish action.
This usually means that after a backtest markets going to flush down hard....
So here is the interesting as many people got bullish yesterday on the big move into close - but this was just WELL played by the MM's and you gotta be good to read those charts to see what is happening here.
For me - this is setting up for another big move down possible -4 to -5% and thats why I'm still looking for below 1100 on SPX.
In my book Tuesday is the most bearish day for this week - so I'm looking for a terrible tuesday today with more to follow tomorrow on Wednesday.
There is the possibility markets wants a minor gap up today - but looking at Russels we filled the gap + made the perfect backtest.
The same goes on with NDX Nasdaq composite , touched the MA(50) underside + backtest of broken trendline.... = bearish.
So I think today (tuesday) will come true if this was a "REAL" start of a big rally - or just a fake pump into resistance which I think
So Russels made a gap fill + a BACKTEST OF NECKLINE + overbought on 60 and 30min + a move to 666..... which should tell you everything ;-) dont need to say more...
SPX is just a little confusing as it overshot the backtest a bit OR it did not get to this backtest YET as the backtest on SPX is at 1172 area if the move on 12 semptember were a failed breakdown....
Conclusion:
I remain heavy long TZA , DRV , EDZ all in MAJOR profits now - I'm thinking markets made a backtest of broken trendline , the bounce or rebound I called for on Friday we got on Monday and this should be a shortable "bounce" before a major drop to come.
I still believe SPX to see 1100 soon...
Sure hope it works out for you Sqwii.
ReplyDeleteHi Sqwii,
ReplyDeletethanks for your update.
What would be the point in S&P that in your opinion confirms a rally up and makes you sell your short positions?
Thanks!!
Hi
ReplyDeleteSPX above 1190 on SPX would be the level I would take my positions of the table :)
you may just get your 1190 level on the spy today
ReplyDeleteHi Sqwii, thanks for the great analysis. I am still planning on writing to you with questions about trading room but I have been away with work and other commitments. I will write shortly.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with you that the markets will head down to between 1000-1050 on SPX before we see a monster rally. I am just wondering if they push this up to the 1210-1220 area before it completely caves in, just to fuck over as many as they can on both the long & short side.
What are your thoughts?