Market view

Markets kept moving up all week along ! Wow - I really missed this move as I only expected a little "bounce" to 1180-1190 level , and we came all the way up to 1220!

Overall my thesis and count has not changed - I still believe we are going to see a fat reversal to the downside , possible with the FED this week. I think we will get a very unexpected announcement from the FED - possible they dont want to do anything right now ? People expect a possible new QE3 to be announced , but with oil prices and markets this high - they wont imo !

Greece have big major problems and needs money before October - do they make new reforms before ? Will there be problems with the colleteral deals with Finland, Netherland??

I think we will have some major problems near future and we should see some panic and a big reversal.

OPEX finnished now so I think the real move would occur this week. I see this week to be a major reversal and when we start there will be "no kind" of support levels - we should just flush down in markets but before this there is a possibility markets or SPX wants a test of MA(50) which is at 1228 right now.....

When we are so close to 1228 - then why not have the push up to test it before the reversal - its very possible..... imo.

I'm still short and underwater , but if my thesis is right markets should reverse and we should see 1000-1050 on SPX - so the only thing I need is patience.

I think you should be prepared for the fully unexpected especially with the FED meeting and after this big move up - there is a potential for a "crash" type of move comming imho - so I dont think that the LOWS is in - and I think we are going to test the 1100 lows still and I think we will break below and see 1000-1050 on SPX before October........

So if my thesis is right we should by this week start to have a reversal.

This does mean we still might have a push up to test MA(50) at 1228 ? But either way - I think the move is done soon and we are going much lower....

I know I missed this move up but if we go to 1000-1050 on SPX next weeks I dont care so much about those small swings...

Time will tell me I remain long TZA = 44 , EDZ 19.7 , DRV , 11 as swing trades - only TZA underwater now...

But if we have patience we should be more than fine imho... hopefully this week will mark the top before the big flush down in markets (which I expect) now when OPEX is over.