Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Market view


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All indexes did close higher , but literally we are not a lot higher than we were yesterday , as we dipped pretty fast end of day yesterday , but only got up again. Nothing has really changed the picture still , we still remain on sell signal and have not got any buy signal , but if we dont reverse soon then we WILL get buy signal ( especially above 1330 SPX where I got short ).

Remember... EU STRESS TEST Thursday and FED release bank loans since 2007-2010 on Thursday too, so tomorrow might be an interesting day and then job on Friday...

Overall still looking for a free fall with new lows below 1250 soon and we have not got any buy signals yet.

The Compq looks like wanna go higher and backtest trendline ? Who knows

Looking at the full stochastics on daily charts we are not getting overbought and ready to roll over again in a new leg down. I would say this contra trend rally we got since 1250 is very weak.

So we got a move from 1344 to 1250 , then a move from 1250 to 1320ish now ? - next 1320 to 1220-1200 imo, so I remain short.

Copper has been moving down , but markets have not been following yet if thats a leading indicator. IMO too many is being bullish now everyone I look at they say new highs comming - DONT BELIEVE this imho, as next free fall is about to come when they dont expect it.

About the FED and they tell us we have no inflation according to "their "CPI" we dont have inflation , but its crooked... just take a look at commodities and tell me that Ben Bernanke is a LIAR... big liar telling people we have no inflation.

CRB has increaed 25% since September QE2 program , from around 270-360 ... and NO INFLATION ? Benny you gotta be kidding us telling us inflation below 2% I dont know what he is looking at...

"The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (TR/J CRB) is a commodity price index. It included barley and flaxseed from the Winnipeg exchange; cocoa, coffee "B", copper, cotton, cottonseed oil, grease wool, hides, lead, potatoes, rubber, sugar #4, sugar #6, wool tops and zinc from New York exchanges; and corn, eggs, lard, oats, onions, rye, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and wheat from Chicago exchanges. In addition to those 26 markets, the Index also included the spot New Orleans cotton and Minneapolis wheat markets which were added to balance some commodities repeated in the Index as by-products of other commodities."


But lets wait and see if we get a buy signal above 1330 to get long and cover.

Have a nice day - remember you can follow me on twitter where I play small caps for small timeframe trades ( up 25% on APPY yesterday , and ZOOM )

Have a nice day

Best

Chris
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousMarch 30, 2011 at 7:03 AM

    Here's some more hope for us few bears, maybe this will start things off on the downside again.
    http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TZJKeobYrfI/AAAAAAAAKLs/LlbPM3QfXV8/s1600-h/3%5B5%5D.png

    ReplyDelete
  2. agnes1938March 30, 2011 at 8:34 AM

    you have to admit that technical, sentiment measures and other TA tools have not been really working for months now

    as they say, euphoria can keep on getting higher

    but the higher/longer it lasts, the more severe the fall....

    and based on the above we will eventually experience a total meltdown...and that is my big concern because it could be so severe that not even the bears might benefit from it

    ReplyDelete
  3. SqwiiMarch 30, 2011 at 8:50 AM

    Time will tell yes - we have G20 meeting tomorrow, EU bank stress test and we have FED loans after they were sued to make them official since 2007-2010 to banks comming out tomorrow too...should be interesting

    Statistically TODAY 2. last day of March is the most bearish in whole March. Lets see how today plays out - A nasty drop is in due now - also with the stochastics getting overbought again and about to roll over.

    This rally since 1250 is lacking strong volume to upside , very weak.

    Overall also I can only find bad news over last weeks , nothing really "good" to talk about , so manipulated , but QQQ is touching trendline from highs now , need to reverse today..

    ReplyDelete
  4. agnes1938March 30, 2011 at 10:37 AM

    now if the $ could really start to rally....

    imo, the bubble in silver is gigantic...

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousMarch 30, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    Premarket is up big, we need something to knock it back down.

    ReplyDelete
  6. SqwiiMarch 30, 2011 at 3:33 PM

    Copper is down -2.3% today , if copper is any leading indicator watch out for a flush soon.........

    Maybe reversal today ??

    Get those shorts imho while they are cheap.....tomorrow stress test and bank loan details... may get ugly

    ReplyDelete
  7. SqwiiMarch 30, 2011 at 5:28 PM

    Just added to my short position SPX 1330 here big time from my original short 1330- now HEAVY size short positions

    ReplyDelete

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