Market view

The rally is about to get long in the tooth now - but as I expected , if SPX broke 1304 MA(50) then watch the 1310ish resistance from the 1344 top, which should hold as the last resistance for the downtrend. If we breakout big above this , its very possible we visit the highs. But overall the dow jones BACKTESTED broken trendline yesterday and the russels were weak yesterday cause russels is at resistance from highs too. So every indexe is near the resistance from the highs ( downtrend resistance) and right now everything VERY overbought short term - so this contratrend rally did was it was supposed to do - wash out some shorts and then scooop in the longs.

Its so funny to see everyday this week that BAD news makes the markets rally big time , no sense about the fundamentals , economic data and markets, it is so corrupt and manpipulated today so the only thing which works is technicals - and they tell us that markets should BACKTEST broken trendlines before going further down + reaching the upper downtrend resistance before heading further down. That is what is taking place now - and if a reversal is to happend , today is KEY imho...... I need a good reversal today and let the markets close red and not move any higher if the resistance is to hold. The Nasdaq is often the leading index and QQQ and Nasdaq did yesterday just hit MA(50) and is below now, I would say its a nice kiss of MA(50) and we should see next big decline to come after this kiss.

Take a look at the VIX - we are RIGHT at the trendline support from the lows - a really good rally from here in the VIX will confirm another BIG drop comming in markets.

ADX is still saying SELL SELL and my system also tels me to sell - so bulls really need to confirm this rally with another big one today , then it would probably be confirmed , but until now - SELL

Economic data were bad yesterday, more problems in Japan , Portugal crisis widening, Jerusalem bomb explodes, Yemen and Bahrain still protests etc etc... but WHO cares...... markets up :) ( just shows you fundamentals has nothing to do )

As expected markets made a nice contra trend rally over the last 4-5 days - the VIX exploded and got too fast up and needed a pullback.

1. The VIX is now back to support and testing trendline from the lows and is now ready for another major rally.
2. The dow jones were weaker yesterday and did make a rally to backtest a broken trendline from September lows
3. The QQQ or Nasdaq Comp did a BIG rally yesterday ( cause it was weaker than all other indexes ) but I will remind you that QQQ and Nasdaq have been a leading index - and we got the kiss yesterday of MA(50) and closed right below - a good fast reversal should happend now as we are testing this
4. SPX did push above MA(50) - and is right now on a sweet spot near the trendline from 1344 highs in this zone - a fast good reversal today will indicate a big plunge to come.
5. As supposed to do - this rally did make the sentiment a lot more bullish - everyone calling for new highs now and saying dont short this "fucking market, just buy the fucking d!P!!!!!" - again as expected they will be butt fucked with their arms down , this time just heavier.
6. Remember the bad loans data from FED to be relased this week ? Should be released TODAY ( everyone forgot about it ... )
7. Syria Yemen and Bahrain in mass protest today
8. EU summit will finnish today - dont expect ANY news on details how to expand the fund and help EU countries other than just "talk"
9. Ireland seems to need a lot more money already , they should be asking for more near term
10. End of March usually the worst statistical.
11. In my book the bottom ( or not bottom ) made at 1250 is NOT a bottom , a bottom is NOT caused by a GAP UP and RUN , but with a GAP down , flush and RALLY.......
12. Expect after today if we wont breakout big above all those resistances - expect a NASTY reversal into next week and my target of SPX below 1200 remains seen end of March

But overall I thought the decline would begin earlier this week , but looks like it will begin today and a nasty nasty red week next , should come....do NOT be fooled to go long here - as I said , the bulls will now scream new highs is comming bla bla bla , until a fast sharp move down is comming and they will be stucked another time. The problem is this move down will be more ugly than the other ones we saw last 1 month........

Have a nice weekend everyone still short 1333-1330 and looking for below 1200