Overall market did have a very boring day and started green , but with a nice selling pressure last hour into close. I am still a bit surprised that our sell off has not begun yet - but my analysis still tells me a free fall in markets is underway and targets 1220 first and probably below 1200. What event will trigger this , this week ? I dont know - but we will find out soon.
The markets had an inside day with a reversal bar and if the rally should continue we needed to have a a follow through to the upside , but we did reverse instead.
Its still unbelieveable how the euro/usd is holding up with all those bad news from EU - but again - what can we do about manipulation. The USD still looks to me like a big rally underway and USD were flat yesterday after some consolidation after Fridays gains. Today we should see a breakout of the falling wedge in the USD , so lets see if we get it.
What I wanna say is that copper was down -1.6-1.7 % yesterday , which MOST LIKELY means markets is going to follow - so I wont be suprised to see a -1% or -2% red close today in markets as a start of the bigger decline to come this week. The VIX had a fantastic close and closed hod yesterday and made a very nice bullish engulfing pattern - lets see if VIX can follow through today.
Still major short SPX 1333-1330 and holding , patience is key sometimes and you dont make big bucks just flipping a coin, but sometimes a little patience should be key.
Have a nice day
My most bearish scenario:
ReplyDeleteS&P below 1000 in next 3 weeks, maybe close to 900....then a rally back above 1000....and then a total collapse to 500 by this summer.
one just wonders if there is any bear really left?
ReplyDeleteThings didn't go too well for us put holders today. Hope your right and patience is key here.
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