Wow - what a BORING day yesterday , one of the most boring days in 2011 - we did not move anything nearly , just flat and a bit down. Overall the markets did not have strength today to move to 1303 test and probably 1310-1315 (trendline from highs) - but not sure if we will get that test , but we could get it.
Today will be very interesting as Portugal could either fall hard today as they are voting - so what I think is that they will ask for bailout from IMF and ECB as they cant handle its debt - but that would make the euro fall hard. Usually the late March is STATISTICAL bad for markets - and I expect this late March to be extreme bad starting any day as our "contra trend" rally is near done...
But again we MAY get the last push up to test MA(50) right above 1300 or test the trendline from highs 1310 - but we may also just stop here cause heavy resistance at 1300 as mentioned many times before...
The short term trend is STILL down as we are still in a downtrend since then highs - the volume declining on the rally up and thats a weak sign for bulls. I stand by this - the markets DID NOT BOTTOM last week at 1250 - because a BOTTOM is never made on a "GAP UP", but a bottom is made when markets is flushing down or GAP down , and THEN strong up. Therefore we should take us 1250 SPX very soon and move down below 1200 my target before end of month. I have 6 trading days yet to see if my target below 1200 will be reached - but I think if any big problems in EU + the Mid East + Japan - then we could fall HARD...
But for the near term - watch Portugal today - EU Summit meetings on Thursday and Friday will also give focus on the EU..... Portugal Premiere Minister will resign if they dont agree on the cutting plan and then they are going to fall in the hand like Greece and Ireland (remember last years sell off on Greece???)
Well time will tell - still heavy short SPX 1333-1330 and HOLDING all as we are about to see the biggest sell off to come here.
Have a nice day
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