As expected markets did the backtest I mentioned last days - we got the bounce up from 1300 first to 1320-1330 area before next big move down. This time we should see below 1294 and I expect us to see the lower trendline in the downtrend. On the DOW Jones its about 11.900 area you should be watching for another little contra trend rally.
Markets did close right at big long term support - IF breached today we should get a nasty sell off imho and the panic should begin. For the bulls to have any hope now - they need a big rally today , because we made a bearish engulfing candlestick on daily charts yesterday , which is in fact VERY bearish......
I'm still short SPX 1333 and 1330 and holding - and very long the dollar. The dollar got green yesterday after Mid East problems and Bernanke and we are right at some big support. Lets see if we are able to get a good rally from this trendline to my target 87ish in comming months. When the dollar moves up - the markets does most likely fall, so a sell off would happend then.
The USD is made by columbia - very nice chart indeed and you see that support is 76-77 area, (thats where we were and are around now)
Overall the short term trend did nearly get a BUY signal yesterday as we closed green - but reversed FAST back down with no bounces, a very strong move and rejection - so the sell signals remain on sell and the downtrend remains in a downtrend. As I called before - we should see contra trend rallies to make a lower high - and we did in fact and then we should next see a lower low.
As I stated long time ago - US debt ceiling is a big problem and overall US debt, we have maybe Saudi Arabia comming up next - who knows and oil could see 140$ quick before dropping.
The SPX needs a close above 1323 again - to get me bullish - as long we stay below this level I am veary bearish.
Remember you can follow me on twitter and please write a review in investimonials if you have time - Thank you.
Good luck
No comments:
Post a Comment