Thursday, March 17, 2011

Market view





As very much expected - markets plunged further down and closed down near -2% for the day. We filled the gap and the bottom for today was near a 2 year trendline from the bottom in March 2009, a big trendline support. If we loose this trendline we could see a type of crash move down.

Its St. Patricks day and I think we could see some green today - at least in the start before plunge down further near close or by tomorrow.

Remember also triple withing expiration date tomorrow - so very volatile moves may come.......

Overall I believe that the dollar bottomed with another bullish harami reversal confirmed - lets see if the dollar will hold the lows - if not may turn out ugly for the dollar - but looks like the euro topped this morning in the 1.4's touch and should be ready to dive.

Overall the short term trend remains down and SPX needs to show strength and move ABOVE 1300-1305 before the short term trend will turn up, until then we will see LOWER LOWS and LOWER highs - so a move to 1275-1280 before another plunge ? who know ... but everything below 1300 is a UNIQUE shorting opportunity as I think we will plunge back down below the 2 year trendline and fast down to below 1200......

But for today overall looks like we could see a gap up to 1275-1280 area before next down move, we have some good resistance in this area - if we break this watch 1300 as a big resistance, but dont think we will see that high before plunge further

You see when SPX were at 1330 area , no one thought SPX could be under 1200 this month or under 1294 - but until now we are getting very close with SPX at 1250 area, so only 50 points more to downside which we could see in 1 day near term....

Overall have the feeling that we MIGHT see a green day today - with a RED day again tomorrow , but only because holiday today and a little bounce to make a lower high, time will tell.

We have a HS pattern in copper and nasdaq composite with downside target 2500 for the short term.

Holding all major short positions 1333-1330 and in BIG profits already , but why cover if we just begun the decline and the short term trend remains down ?

Have a nice day

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