Market did get a nice push back again Friday and the USD did touch my target for the trendline at 76.3 exactly BOTTOM Friday. I am not sure if I had drawn the trendline correct - but IF I have, then the dollar should have bottomed out Friday and now begin a major rally from this trendline. I dont know what events or news which will come to make the dollar rally - but something must be comming soon. Watch out and see if 76.3 in USD is holding , as I see it we got there and should make a reversal here , as I have been saying last week that the downside target for the USD would be 76.3 or maybe 76 and not move below 76.
The market is still in a correction mode IMO and I think we did all last week set up a choppy trading week up 2% down 2% , up 1% down 1% and we nearly traded sideways with not much of a trend. But finally I see this breaking down with the USD breaking out higher from here and we should see below 1200 and maybe test the channel lower trendline at 1180 SPX by end of March.
We have much comming up this month - Portugal needs bailout, Ireland renegotiate bailout, Greece debt problems, Mid east unrest and especially if we hear more about Saudi Arabia , oil is going to rocket launch to 140$ a barrel.
All in all - still holding my big short positions at 1333-1330 and holding. We need to clear 1330-1333 big resistance area if the bulls is going to show strength again.
Remember in April 2010 , BEFORE the flash crash, markets were also very choppy up and down and moving sideways exactly like today - I think the bears will win in the end and when we breakdown below 1294 SPX , its going to get fast to the downside.
For todays trading not sure if we gap up or gap down - but watch the USD closely and see if we get any strength - that should indicate a drop in markets....the euro is slamming into resistance and MA(200)
Have a nice day
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