Saturday, June 26, 2010

Weekend outlook



Well we had a week were we had been moving down a lot in like 5 days in a row. When SPX was near 1130 I was shorting the pop with FAZ from 13.65 and sold last at 15.85 lately. My target for the pullback was 1076 level and MA(20) but right now we are under MA(20) which is not a good sign , but we are still around the fib 61% retracement from the highs.Right now I took some long positions at least for the short term, the question is only how high we will go now. Its hard to say and no one can forecast where we will go perfectly, but the charts suggest that if you look at the TNA it looks like some kind of inverse HS pattern, if this is true then we are going to have a major rally and most likely have SPX to above 1130 and around 1150. The levels I am watching close to is 1100 and 1130 level, if we CANT take out these levels very soon, I am going to load the boat with shorts, cause I think this is the LAST bullish move up we are getting before a big plunge in the markets. Yes, as I have been saying I am long term bearish in the markets and think we will go way lower, but right now looks like we got a rally up from 1040 level to 1130 level, then a pullback to 1070 level (that made us a higher low in the daily chart) and then I hope we can rally up to 1150 to make the right shoulder on the daily chart. Why I think we are not finnished rally is also because on weekly summation index is shows us that we just began our rally up and there is more left, also AROON oscillator telling us a buy signal from thursday which is positive. But again if this wont play out , the inverse HS pattern and we dont break 1100 or 1130 which I am looking at now - and it need to be very soon early next week ( hope we break above MA(20) early next week and then further up, then we could rally more. But dont bet the farm here on the long side, I think we are going to test much lower levels, but lets see. Early next week will tell us where we are going, but I am looking for a strong reversal, also if we look at daily chart we made a doji reversal candle which will be confirmed IF we close strong and green monday(bullish) , if not bearish. Summary : I think we are able to go higher , watch 1100 level and 1130 and if we break these 1150 should come, if not load the boat with shorts and ride the markets down. Have a nice weekend

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