Market view

Overall markets did run higher as widely expected - markets went up around 0.5% by avareage and my long poistions working out pretty good. I would say though - that the move up is not strong , but just slowly grinding up for now. But I think we could get a strong move up with good volume very soon - as most people think this is a head fake rally and we go down again any day now. I think we are setting up for a big rally into backtesting broken trendline at 1320-1330 area still...

FOMC meeting today + confidence vote in Greece - could be a day where some nice actions happends.

All my indexes is still on a big buy signal on daily charts and remains so. TNA holding size position from 68.8 which is now 71ish already in profits. I am expecting a follow through to the upside on Tuesday as I said friday last week an early rally monday/tuesday and hope for another move up today.

After a move I would expect a minor pullback before moving higher later this week or next week.

The short term target is 1290-1300 range - then a possible pullback before we head up above 1300 and reach 1320-1330. Actually markets reminds me a lot of 2007 top - VERY similar - if we are playing out that , then we have a good short term rally to come and then a nasty drop afterwards.

QQQ is getting so close for a breakout over resistance + I think AAPL bottomed yesterday at 310 with a red hammer formation.

So overall - yes we might get a pullback - I really dont think we get a big plunge right now , but a little pullback should be in place soon before we head up higher. So I remain bullish since late last week and holding my long positions.

I've made a chart from my previous long/short calls.

All indexes oversold and ready to go seems like to me - what worries me is - that I dont see much "good news" out there - but overall seems like sentiment is so bearish so any neutral news or some "hope" news may kick start us big time.

So for now SPX target still in the 1320-1330 range - a move up tuesday with a pullback mid this week for then another rally late this week and next week might be in the cards. But again who knows if we wont move a lot higher and probably make new highs ?? I think no ones out there believe that we will make new highs or not many - when looking at the FTSE weekly chart we hit that trendline Ive made perfect , and seems like bouncing nicely from it ... lets see if its a launch pad for higher levels - sentiment is still extreme bearish and put/call ratio indicates a bottom is in place at least.

I think when QQQ is going to break resistance - that would help overall markets a lot to gain strength - as they have been weak - but yesterday seemed to bottom.

Market view

Markets did gap up nicely on Friday - but then consolidated a bit with a little minor pullback. I'm still heavy long markets right now as I think a big rally is underway. Look at this - over the recent few days markets has not been moving down , down , down - but rather consolidated in a choppy way (usually indicate a market bottom ) before we take off.

I see some great possibilities of a major rally starting early next week ( Probably Monday ) as the markets made a perfect inverted HS pattern with the right shoulder being in. This little inverted HS pattern targets near in the zone of 1290-1300 by early next week, where I think we will be going near term, before any pullback and then higher.

Remember there are so many bloggers out there , who dont even post their trades and so many bloggers out there who says "Yes - either we go up here , if not we go down here" Well - then they are always right , but I at least give you my own oppinion what I think is going to happend instead of saying 50% up or 50% down. This means that I'm not right all the time and also make mistakes , but I find it more usefull to share what I think is most likely to happend instead of telling either we go up to 1330 or we go down to 1230... that just make not much sense to me - and you dont find many other blogs out there who post their trades in the markets.

I'm still looking for 1320 area or 1330 by end of this month so its about to buy all the dips you can right now.

If you look at the small caps they are holding up way better than overall markets - which is very bullish. So not much to say - the conclusion is that we are consolidating at bottom here before a big rally early next week ( I think we get one Monday... but probably also Tuesday) so get ready imho.

Have a nice weekend everyone and enjoy.

Market view

Markets were really choppy yesterday - first up a lot - then down to test MA(200) right below 1260 as I indicated was a possibility yesterday , but then bounced hard into close and closed near hod.

I've added to my TNA position at low 68's as I'm still very bullish short term from here.

Markets havent really been going anywhere over the last 3 days - as we got a nice up move in markets - then down and then a little up , so we have "stayed" choppy in support range 1255-1265 area which should give us a strong rally soon imo

Every indexes I have is still on a full buy signal since yesterday - so lets see what happends over next days/weeks.

FTSE is getting close to a major trendline support which I think will hold this time at least for a short term rally - and the same for CAC (France)

I am going to short markets big again when all you guys are predicting markets going to new highs and 1450 and 1500 and everything just looks good.... or when Obama adress another kill or another "good news" out there....

Remember - the top were exactly when Osama bin Laden was announced......surprise... bottoms usually when a country deffaults - natural disasters or war or something else.....

My upside targets is in the 1320-1330 area into end of June. Holding all my TNA 68.5 average.

Good luck to everyone

Market view

Markets did a nice plunge as mostly called after the big rally we got to near 1288-1294 area. I stated that if we would not take out 1294 - then there is a good possibility we see news lows before making a real bottom.

Either way as I stated yesterday , I would be buying and I did load a size position on TNA 68.8$ for a swing trade from here.

The downside is imho very minimal here and upside is huge at the moment - too many bears right now and I dont think we are heading way more down. How about a market bottom on the day were they were showing 24- hour live from Greece fighting each other ? Good for some fear - well it was and volume were also good, usually marking a capitulation.

Remember - I went short markets 1st June around 1330 and were holding all the way down to 1270 some days ago and took profits. Now lots of people think the sky is falling and doom and gloom - right now is the time where I am a happy buyer.

Overall we have lots of good support below MA(200) and other big trendlines which should show some support, I see a possible backtest of broken trendline which we broke out of but then got slammed down to make a possible backtest.

Remember the chart yesterday about the euro I posted ? - I said that the euro made a topping HS pattern which looked ugly and a big flush in euro should come - we saw euro down -1.5% yesterday pretty big , with that markets got lower.

No one can be 100% sure about market bottoms and tops - but I think we have a very good possibility of a market bottom now - also with fear been rising a lot above upper BB. If we close below today in VIX - then we have a equity buy signal. Last week I also said - that I would see a nice move down with the "fear" rising , then to see a bottom. We had the VIX above 20 yesterday and fear is rising a lot - I think a short term market bottom is VERY close , if not in. We might gap down to 1260 or around here, but downside very limited now.

If we look at FTSE , we are near a huge support zone indicated on chart too.....

I waited out to buy a big size position in TNA when both 30min and 60min began to be oversold which it was at 68.8$ so I favour at least a "bounce" from here - either way downside should be very limited now.

If you look at Russels or small caps - they did NOT make a lower low - like other indexes , which is very bullish signal to me. Russels leading markets both UP and DOWN.... and if they are holding strong - I see it as a big bullish signal. If we look at CPCE we have the "wall of worry" which has been quite good to predict market bottoms and tops......lets take a look where we are now :-). Its not 100% right nothing is , but right now its saying a market bottom - and actually a possible big rally to new highs comming ? Who knows.... I dont think so , but open to everything what markets tells us.


I see a possible backtest rally to 1320 area and TNA possible 80+ target comming over next weeks - I think we are making some kind of market bottom now and a relief rally would come. I really dont think we will make new highs , but a relief rally to upside is due now.

I'm also long lots of small cap names included APWR from 2.1 which is way higher yesterday and looking for more gains. MCOX, SMSI , TA, CWTR also long

Have a nice day

Market view

Wow - markets got for sure a nice rally - which was kinda like predicting per the charts on Monday with all the bullish divergences. Actually I were quite stupid to sell all my TNA the day after way too early in the morning with some good gains - but profits is still profits.

The markets rallied to 1290-1295 as was my target range for the rally and I have a few options today.

1. When I look at my daily charts the looks like a screaming "buy" signal to me - I think we are near a bottom - so I would not rule out that we bottomed out at 1270 level. The action today (Wednesday will tell me)

2. Either way - up or down, I think we will see some weakness - the markets reached the backtest again where we plunged last time - will we do the same ? I dont know....

3. I personally would think we have a little morning dip today to SPX 1277-1280 range - just to make the right shoulder in a inverted HS pattern. If this range holds today - I am going to load the boat again up on TNA and on the long side as I think a multi week rally is underway.

4. The only big red flag to me is the euro - it looks like a clear topping HS pattern so just looking at euro it seems really bearish to me at the moment , and with this markets could drop further down - but time will tell.

Conclusion: Either way - I am going to buy the dip sometimes today as I see a rally still underway and a market bottom in. If it was not at 1270 range - will it be lower today ? Who knows - I will be looking for the short term charts - they need a breath or a move down - but I will be buying long.

Remember I have already bought some small caps yesterday and still holding.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did another minor sell off intraday but got back up again and closed flat and neutral.

As I said on my Fridays post - I am expecting a short term bottom very soon - therefore I took all my profits yesterday on TZA from 34.5 to 42's which had some pretty nice gains + I took my ZSL gains around 20% in last days....

I began to take a starter position yesterday in TNA at 68.9$ as I see a multiple bullish divergence on 60 min chart + I think a short term bottom is near.... there is a possibility markets may go down a little bit more over next days - but I will just add some more longs lower IF we get there. If you follow me on twitter you will get all these things live intraday.

My TZA target were 45 and there is still a possibility we get there next days - but overall I wont be greedy either and just be "locked in" on this target - and therefore better to lock in gains and miss the last run up. I've already got a lot since early June.

From what I see right now is 2 things:

1. We might have a good up day today - and then a big sell off tomorrow (Wednesday)
2. Depends if SPX breaks above 1294 or not - if we dont breakout above 1294 - I will probably take some gains in TNA and then watch out if we get a sell off Wednesday.
3. If we breakout 1294 I am going to hold all my TNA and probably add more to my position.

I have a multiple bullish divergence on my TNA which I had on my TZA when it was trading at 33-35 level - now just opposite and therefore I expect a good rally to come.

I also bought some small caps for swing plays.

So overall the conclusion is - got a good position in TNA 68.9 - IF we break 1294 soon I will hold - if we stay below 1294 I will probably sell my TNA from yesterday and wait out until wednesday to buy again - but EITHER way a SHORT TERM bottom should be in pretty soon and therefore it might be clever just to add to position lower as I see some good upside gains over next 2 weeks + window dressings + Greece bailout package + new IMF head comming before 30th June.

So overall time to play some long positions now - upside targets could be a backtest of broken trendline at SPX 1315-1320 and if we wanna go to extreme levels - then 1320-1330.

Have a nice day

Market view

Sorry for the missing update on Friday - had no time to post.

Overall - the markets did quite much as expected and drawn in the charts - a bounce to 1295 area (Backtest) and then heavy down again Friday to new lows !

What a sweet action to see - just an oversold bounce before dripping further. TZA is getting near to my 45 target which is 42 right now and holding all shares from 34.5. I am going to begin to take profits as soon we move a bit higher early next week in the shorts where I think markets will drop further with a stronger dollar.

ZSL did also very well and ended up 8% and still holding all from 16.6 - hope with a stronger USD then the silver and overall markets would plunge further.

Overall called the dollar reversal and dollar to rally - and I think it just begun. The chart I will show you is a clear backtest of broken trendline and then a big rally is to be expected. That would really hurt silver and metals + stock markets going forward.

This upcomming week I am looking for the real flush down in markets - a fast one but ugly which should take us probably 1250 SPX or below. I'm going to take the profits in TZA sometimes early next week as I am up near 30% already on heavy position here so gotta lock in some as we are getting close to my target + I think a possible bottom is getting close...

So overall - next week looking for a fast plunge down early - I really dont know if we will see 1250 or the MA(200) as everyone thinks or we fake most and plunge a bit further to 1240 or 1230 ? I will see and when I get a sell signal on daily chart TZA and buy signal on TNA I am going to load size position in TNA , but not until I see some weakness and I think we will see 1250 next week with the position dollar is in... dollar looks to me like its about to run hard.... which is bad for markets.

Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy !