Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Market view






Wow - markets got for sure a nice rally - which was kinda like predicting per the charts on Monday with all the bullish divergences. Actually I were quite stupid to sell all my TNA the day after way too early in the morning with some good gains - but profits is still profits.

The markets rallied to 1290-1295 as was my target range for the rally and I have a few options today.

1. When I look at my daily charts the looks like a screaming "buy" signal to me - I think we are near a bottom - so I would not rule out that we bottomed out at 1270 level. The action today (Wednesday will tell me)

2. Either way - up or down, I think we will see some weakness - the markets reached the backtest again where we plunged last time - will we do the same ? I dont know....

3. I personally would think we have a little morning dip today to SPX 1277-1280 range - just to make the right shoulder in a inverted HS pattern. If this range holds today - I am going to load the boat again up on TNA and on the long side as I think a multi week rally is underway.

4. The only big red flag to me is the euro - it looks like a clear topping HS pattern so just looking at euro it seems really bearish to me at the moment , and with this markets could drop further down - but time will tell.

Conclusion: Either way - I am going to buy the dip sometimes today as I see a rally still underway and a market bottom in. If it was not at 1270 range - will it be lower today ? Who knows - I will be looking for the short term charts - they need a breath or a move down - but I will be buying long.

Remember I have already bought some small caps yesterday and still holding.

Have a nice day

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