Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Market view






Markets did an extremely nice flush yesterday as I predicted - just 1 or 2 day too early , but who can also nail the exact top AND bottom to the penny , as I literally called the bottom early October to the penny - go back and read the blog posts by then.... called for major bottom.

I have not been any kind of bearish until "late October" and for now we have erased ALL gains from the "EU bailout package" which is erased , as I said sell the news or fade them , we did not do it on THE day , but if you had patience and waited 1-2 days you see why now.

I remain still in the bearish camp and holding all shorts , my swing trade TVIX in major profits already from 40.5$ which is brilliant !

I got SELL signals on ALL MAJOR indexes - so my plan right now is - we can either see a very hard flush and reversal ( continuation to downside a lot more..... ) or we will just see a minor pullback before rally into year end.

The reasons I give for a hard and big flush in mkts is that FXE euro backtested 2 year trendline as I called at 1.42 and said to buy dollar instead last week - and then got a big fat reversal to downside which is extreme bearish.

After a technical "kiss of death" euro would usually have a big flush and plunge in many days,, so if this is true euro could keep dripping down......

If this is true and euro going to NEW lows this year - then mkts could also get a bit below the last lows we had ,, but again for me I will just stay calm, look which patterns comming up and see if any bearish or bullish patterns remains. As long the trend is down I'm gonna hold my short positions and only going to bail out if I see a MAJOR bullish pattern in mkts forming.....

For now all my EDZ , TZA , ERY only little underwater and will be in profits on them all on another good down day , so PATIENCE pays - and to those who have no patience - well thats their fault....

We might even be in a big fat CHANNEL down as we hit the upper trendline if you look at the charts.....

Conclusion:

I remain short markets via all my short ETF and long TVIX , TVIX already in major major profits which is nice , but still holding all.

My thesis remains that a major reversal could easy happend , SOME CHARTS INDICATING this could be a start of a MAJOR flush to downside ( FXE EURO CHART, NYA Topping hs pattern chart and so) but EITHER way I'm going to play the downside and in case mkts wants higher then Im going to play the upside.....

Right now I remain short mkts and my thesis tells me that we could go down for another 1-2 weeks from here, patience guys and big fat profits to those who had balls of steel and had patience with me late last week.

3 comments:

  1. Great stuff,nice charts and strong nerves !

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  2. After reading this & seeing your charts. i am surprised you closed shorts & went long. Interesting to see how it plays out.

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