Markets did a very nice rally on the news - I got short 1 day or so too early , but thats how it is.
On the day market popped 3-4% I loaded a size swing trade in TVIX at 40.5$ as I still believe markets is about to see a nice reversal to the downside.
When I look at every index and the euro all making a bearish backtest of neckline and called kiss of death - if true markets could start to plunge hard from here - but lets take 1 day at a time.
We wont like to see SPX above 1300 that would be bad for this bearish case.
Overall NYMO is way way way too high and there is often pullbacks.
However I dont think we will see new lows - I'm not sure how low this pullback would get but looking at the euro then its very bearish and telling that new lows in euro may come.
Pullback or bigger correction (I think downside is imminent) and thats why I'm pretty heavy in shorts as I see all those backtests as you see very clear on chart.
In 2008 we made the same with a big rally for thereafter to plunge again weeks after.
All in all - short term trend is UP right now so I'm betting against the trend which I dont like , but I think we could see sell signals pretty soon in markets, time will tell next week.
Conclusion:
Holding all my swing trade shorts and hoping that SPX wont break above 1300 :-)
Have a nice weekend.
Any ideas if there is a pullback how long & how deep?
ReplyDeleteFrom a technical perspective this makes sense 100%. But what if SPX only pullback to 5sma and then break to 1300 or 1310 next week? Are you going to cover shorts? Want to know the backup plan!
ReplyDeletenice looking charts.... with the light colored backround. I can really see these without bi-focls. I am holding short postions also, but will be quick to take some profits at the breakout area. M
ReplyDeleteNice charts....very simple ! Dax also in backtest mode...http://chartramblings.blogspot.com/2011/10/dax_29.html
ReplyDelete