I'm calling for today to be a possible "short term - if not longer term top" after I called the bottom at the exact date.
Again people were very bearish early October - and now all turned bullish....
Right now I'm very bearish and has been for last days - still bearish and think we might have made SOME KIND OF TOP today..... again hard to predict to the limit , but when I'm looking at so many charts I see IMPORTANT indexes like TRANSPORTS and SMH and others closing BELOW MA(200) on the daily , XLF backtesting neckline (kiss of death).
So what do we have?
1. XLF is backtesting a neckline from the crash this summer , now backtesting it right at the trendline I've made this summer,, could get nasty from here.
2. Dow jones perfect backtest of neckline too , got all the way up to the neckline and sold off a little bit into close, called kiss of death and usually very bearish after.......
3. SMH CLOSED BELOW weekly MA(50) and closed below DAILY MA(200) again very bearish sign
4. RUT also backtested a neckline or got very close to it... so might also fall down hard.
5. Everything EXTREME overbought right now......
6. FXE euro backtesting and making a KISS OF DEATH of trendline which it broke down off - dollar could rally big from here...
Well all in all - I'm still holding all my shorts and bought a big SWING position in TVIX at 40.5$ today I will hold this one for some time , gonna see what happends next from those levels here over the next days.
IF those charts holds true , then we should sell off hard VERY soon...... either tomorrow or EARLY next week.... time will tell..
All in all - holding shorts tight and staying short for a swing , only new play was long size position TVIX at 40.5$
Have a nice day everyone.
Hi Sqwii..what a day....from a gann point of view 180 days from the high could mark a top so fits with your thesis....lots of bulls awaking again as you say.The half point per day line from the top may provide resistance,we are slightly above it at the moment.180 days 90 points (1280) would be perfect !
ReplyDeleteYes will be interesting , im not bullish any kind but very bearish here - a little too early but sometimes always too early...
ReplyDeleteLets see near term I ,, many charts looking bad especially with the euro making a kiss of death backtest and if euro goes down from here , dollar up and mkts down.
Yes you may be too early,but I admire your guts putting it all out there. You have been right a lot of times with your analysis. A rare miss is not surprising. As far as a pullback I do not see anything too sharp, especially with end of year coming. The market has moved way too high to pull back to 1130 area IMO, at this point but then again anything is possible as we saw with this rally.
ReplyDeleteAfter this pullback, do you still think it will go to 1300+? If it goes to 1130 to 1150, it would be a big surprise to see 1300+ again.
ReplyDeleteSqwii can you comment on your tweet: "IF YOU WANNA FOLLOW SHORT TERM TREND , DONT SHORT NOW". But you are short?
ReplyDeleteThanks and have a nice weekend.