Market view

Markets been very choppy both up and down - markets had good numbers or better than expected on Friday - but again you see it mostly does not matter what kind of numbers you get - we have experienced this many times before - its the reaction to the numbers and they can be a bit different.

The thing is - markets is still in the same range , we need to be objective and markets has just been choppy from 1120-1220 - same choppy range. I believe most people think we breakdown below 1100 - this is also what I thought last weeks - but recently my thesis has changed a bit as my target for downside were 1000-1050, but the timing in the markets seems to be wrong according to my thesis. We should have made that break last week but we did not - and instead held up in the same range pretty well.

This tells me that there is a possibility that we may see stocks moving up next week and therefore I hold on to my stocks.

Remember last days were hedge funds redemptions days which is over now - so all hedge funds who lost money this year sold their loosers before quarter end and therefore markets could have an overraction to the downside.

I think markets is getting close to 2011 lows - if they are not already in - we are going to make them this week IMO - so if you have lots of cash be prepared to buy.

So I will give 2 scenarios:

1. Either the bottom for 2011 is already in and we may rally up from here
2. The bottom is not in - but we should then make a bottom this comming week and then rally rest of 2011.

So I think its a good time to grab some short positions - I have a bottom date for 7th October to next year , so I think a bottom is very close if not already in.

I think we could see a big rebound on monday as the 30min and 60min charts suggest- so I'm bullish biased for monday and actually got some TNA before close at 33.5$

My thesis tells me to be bullish for next week and my thesis tells me a bottom is either in or will be in by 7th October 2011.

So for now - still holding my long stocks , stock redemptions is over - remember that Operation Twist will now begin + from 15th October they will give UNLIMITED money USD to EU banks..........(Kinda big QE.....)