Markets slowly climbing higher - but I wont say its climbing higher with conviction and there is still a very good possibility that we have the last leg down before pullback is done.
There a both positive and negative factors which tell us that the markets could already have bottomed , but also signs for the short term that we are about to get last leg down.
1. 30 min chart is overbought now - which means a pullback near term is to be expected - some kind of. Are we finally going to test my 1325-1330 SPX range or how much do we pullback - if we pullback?
2. Dollar looks like backtesting a broken trendline which is broke out yesterday - if so dollar may move higher and test MA(50) IMO before any bigger pullbacks - so thats a little bit higher from here which means markets going a little bit lower from here (fits with 1325-13330 area....)
3. The MACD histogram ticking up and made a reversal on daily chart - which often means trend changes - this is positive and thats why markets may have made the pullback.
EITHER way - I'm long and long lots of good small caps - follow me on twitter to see which ones I play. I remain long TNA 82.7 which closed at 87.45 yesterday - up quite big on that trade already......but still holding. In case we see SPX at 1325 I'm going to add to my TNA position...if not - just holding.
The downside is minimal right here as I see it - cause after this pullback is done a rally to new highs should occur with objective target of 1380. But as I called - early May would give is weakness and then expecting about mid May or so a new rally to occur. Based on new and full moons we are getting a full moon 16th May.
By the way silver is up nicely yesterday as called last week - and I think silver has more to go up.
Have a nice day
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