Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Market view





Wow - what can I say - markets were down another day yesterday and if you are looking at the small caps - at one point they were down near -2% yesterday after being down over -1% yesterday.

I have really just NAILED the rally in TZA which I bought below 32 and I were up over 8% yesterday with a big position with big profits in just 2 days !

I hope you got some TZA after the call some days ago that a rally in TZA were comming and pullback were due - but at the moment where TZA stands now I'm a little bit more confused.

The small caps and semidonductors have been plunging a lot more than overall indexes lately - they are usually leading indexes so markets should most likely follow down with them soon (SPX, QQQ, Dow jones )

But yesterday because I were up so much I took some profits in my TZA from 32 and below to -> 34.5-35 range , which was a big gain in just 2 days. Congrats to all holders!

The question remains now - when I look at the 30 min and 60 min chart in TZA I would expect a pullback to 33 ( AND this was the reason I took profits - cause we are very oversold short term in markets ) so I were thinking that TZA would pullback before higher. Though the DAILY chart looks extreme bullish imo and looks like it could breakout higher - thats why I also did hold 50% overnight - cause it was a hard decision to make with the small caps.

SPX did reach 1350 yesterday and we saw a bit support at this area - most people think that this were the pullback - but I can easy see a possible little bounce from this area 1350 or around here to maybe 1360 and then plunge further down later this week or next week to 1325-1330 which is my objective targets still. So the PULLBACK in markets is NOT done imho and we have still more downside left - the question remains imo if we get a little bounce before or not.

If SPX is to follow small caps and SMH then we wont get any bounces but just plunge further down - but the 30 min and 60 min chart suggest a bounce is comming!

I'm still holding small caps and hedge with TZA , not as big position as 2 days ago as I took good profits. So overall dont be too fast to get long a lot now - cause no reason to get long at the moment as we dont have any very good signs that the pullback is done. Short term trend remains down and the dollar looks still like upside near term......which means downside for markets.

My top call in SLV from 50$ looks good and we reached 40$ thats 10 $ profit on short site and I think at 40$ its good to cover shorts on silver for the short term.

Again - I've nailed the rally from SPX 1295 to more than 60 points up and got big short positions via TZA at 1360-1370 level and now we are making profits down again. If you appreciate any of these views I hope you maybe could make a review on investimonials. This is all for free and I use lots of time working on this. Remember this is only my oppinion about the markets and no one is ever 100% - but just share what I see for now and for now - it looks like pullback is NOT done - and more to come over next 1 week but a possible bounce is to be expected soon. QQQ target is around 56-56.5 for a pullback.

Have a nice day

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