Saturday, May 7, 2011

Market view





Markets did a big gap up rally early on job numbers and usually as I've posted on my twitter - on unemployment days if we gap up - then we close lower and if we gap down - then we close higher. This holded true another time as markets did rally early and then shaked out shorts with a nice trend reversal down.

So the question remains still - is the pullback done or do we have a last leg down ? I think we have 2 possibilities and the one is - we are in a choppy range down here (which is a bottoming process) and then finally breaks out to higher levels. The other one is that we will gap down early next week and get to my SPX target zone 1325-1330 area which we are close to.

Im still long TNA 82.7 but took some profits in 1 day yesterday as I was up 5-6% on them when it was trading 87ish.

As called the dollar kept rallying nicely and I think a short term bottom were in last week. The question remains how high we will go in the dollar - before heading down again.

Either way - if the markets bottomed with the pullback we got to the SPX 1329 and right in the target zone - but I would like to have a test of 1325 personally before going higher. After this pullback markets should rally to new highs to an objective target of 1325-1330.

The only thing which has me worried about the markets is the dollar which is looking very strong and could be a major bottom setting up per weekly chart. But if we get one pullback in the dollar mkts may rally to new highs on the pullback... thats what I am seeing right now.

Either way the dow jones does not look bottomed per chart - and the chart looks kinda weird with the bounce. The best thing would be if dow jones early next week plunged down to 12.450- which is a perfect target for a big rally to come imho... but thats just how I see it.

One thing is that on the futures the dow jones touched near 12.450 - which also could suggest that the bottom is in.

But overall expect a big rally to come soon, I'm already long good quality stocks and still TNA 82.7 - but will add if I see SPX 1325 next week.

Im still very bullish silver and I think a nice bounce or rally is underway... think it has bottomed short term.

Next objective target still 1380-1400 after pullback is done.

Have a nice weekend

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