Market view

Markets did another dip yesterday early morning and TZA hit my target and also a little bit above where I thought TZA would run !

WOW.. what a monster run in TZA and with huge profits from 32 and below and up to near 36$ that was very much worth it. I've got all out of TZA as I think that the small caps is now way overdone to the downside - at least for the short term. But there is also a very good possibility that the small caps have bottomed - but SPX and NASDAQ and others haven't cause small caps usually leads the markets up and down as I've mentioned many times before.

I've bought TNA the opposite and 3 x bull small caps yesterday with avg 34.7 - as I think its a very good starter position to have.

I've would like to share my thoughts on the SPX as I am pretty sure that the pullback is NOT over yet - but the downside targets I have some problems with and 2 different counts.

The Russels chart tells me that we had a bounce to the trendline again and potential reversal - that is why I bought TNA at least a good starter cause small caps may have bottomed out.

But overall there are 2 things I am looking at:

1. I thought the pullback would last a bit longer - but still said that early may would see weakness and we are still in this period - which means most likely SPX pullback is NOT done and I dont think its done.
2. If SPX bounce today I think it may be a shortable bounce before a new leg down soon. I really just dont think that the SPX has bottomed already.
3. I have 2 objective targets for the SPX pullback target. The first one is 1335-13340 which is a BACKTEST of a broken trendline in the inverse HS pattern. We may test THIS level before we make new highs - IF we test it and hold it I guess the pullback is done.
4. The other possibility is that we bounce a little today and short term and then flush down later next week to 1325 target which has been my overall objective target since 1370 for pullback. This is a good retracement and we should hit a trendline support from other lows then.

I called the top perfect on the day with blowout top to 50$ since then we had a NASTY move down in silver to 38-39 which is around 20%. CONGRATS if you shorted silver - now you should take profits and go long imho for a possible bounce retracement to 42-43$ silver. I dont think silver will make new highs - but should have a short term bounce now.

For now I pretty much called the rally since 1295 in SPX and began telling a pullback was to come - already now markets been pullbacked a lot and called the buy in TZA below 32 with targets- so overall the markets is doing what I suppose it to do for the moment- not saying I know where it will go always but I have my targets and objectives and therefore I take actions by these. I can always change my mind of markets show me something else...

The UUP or the dollar still looks bottomed and thats also why I dont think the pullback is DONE - I think a short term bounce in the dollar is to expect and then more downside in SPX and stocks yet.


So the question for me - pullback to 1335-1340 or 1325 ? After this I think we will have a massive rally and make new highs.... so be prepared to load up on long positions - but the pullback is not done imho.



Have a nice day