Saturday, July 31, 2010

Market view



Okay, we had a pretty volatile day friday and for me it looks like some end of month window dressings. We had bad GDP numbers and got an overreaction and gapped down perfectly to the lower trendline from july lows. Question is now, if this WAS the pullback from 27th july high? Well, I still believe we have more downside ultimately. We have first of all lots of economic data which comes out early next week and another thing I am watching is the VIX indicator , which for the first time in about a MONTH is going to have bullish MACD cross ( that means the MACD bars are going from negative to positive), which should be bad for the markets. I believe we will see that on monday and if we look at past days, we have a pennant pattern forming with LOWER volume (declining) which suggest that we will breakdown from this pattern. But all in all, no one never knows where we are going, I am just sharing my information , looking at indicators, volume price/action and it suggest we should head further down a bit. I expect us to see 10.100-10.200 in dow jones (MA(20) is around 10.177, might be bounce from there. That would mean around SPX 1070-1080 area. IF we reach that area sometimes early next week I am going to cover my shorts from 27th july, but Im still long few small cap names(JTX, OXGN, IBCP - if I should be wrong and markets moving up from here).
For the next week I am going on a vacation for the whole next week and I wont be posting any charts, but I will make comments on market direction and where I think we are heading daily. Hope you enjoy the weekend and this blog. Have a nice day everyone !

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