Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Market view




Well not much to say - we have for the last days just been creeping VERY slowly up , and nothing big as expected. I am still collecting shorts as I think markets forming a top and as I know there is a lot of BIG resistances on the daily chart. Both the downtrendline from highs, moving averages(50,200) AND fibonacci retracement. Volume is declining showing the rally is dead and we should begin to move down soon. I hope we can get the last sqwiize up to around 1082-1085 to the next fibonacci retracement and THEN tank, but we will see. No matter what the upside is little from here with a maximum target for me a 1100 in SPX. IF we should rally further up I will short into this strength for the next months. I believe we are setting up for another leg down over the next couple of months. If you look at banks they looked like they topped yesterday or is in a topping process now, thats why I loaded FAZ and if FAZ dips lower I am going to add more. Already loaded a lot FAZ now under 15 which I think is a fantastic price. The question is then, when we are going down if we find support at the 1040-1050 area, but this looks MORE and MORE that we dont get the pullback as I expected and then a rally up to 1080-1090, but we just go straight up and after that straight down. We have option expiration day 16th july and last time we had it we went up or sideways until that date and then tanked. So literally we could tank hard next week, but I am collecting cheap shorts until that. I think the next leg could take us down under 1000 in SPX and my target for SPX by September is around 950.

Have a nice day

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