Sunday, July 11, 2010

Market view



Well we have had a very nice rally over last week as we didn't have a lot economic data out and we had been selling off for past 2 weeks. But I need you to take in mind , that I still think we are in a BEAR market and the longer trend is down now. Right now I think we are very close to a major top before we will begin to sell off further. I am not quite sure if we will get a fast pullback and then move higher or if we will just sell off and go straight down. We have some earnings comming up and we will see if they can surprise. But for the very short term I think we may be up a little bit early next week, but then sell off hard as I think a top is in around 1080 area, I expected this rally to go around 1070-1080 and here we are. I think the maximum upside we have in the markets is 1100, so I dont expect ANY big rallies here, thats why I got loaded with shorts late last week as I know over next 2 months we will go down pretty much to about 9000 in DOW. So if I miss some gain to the upside, I dont really care? As I know the downside is much better here , also with a big short term rally we just had. I called the rally start from start july and now I am calling a top over next few days. My target for the short term is 1040-1050 area , and I am going to see if this area will hold. My strategy here is , if this area holds we might get another nice rally up again, but if we cant hold it, then just stay short and ride the markets down below 1000 in SPX.
I believe we are very close to the end of minor wave 2, and another major top. The dow looks like it could go a little higher points, so maybe the market will hold up, for mutual fund Monday, while the market consolidates.

I got a lot FAZ under 15 as I think it has bottomed pretty much(we are touching the support trendline from last months , that means financials have been rallied harder than other industries, cause the markets havent the big resistances yet. But overall summary, I think monday could be a little consolidating, maybe get the last sqwiize out and then sell off hard. I am getting very bearish here and thats why I took a lot of profits late last week.
In the medi term I still expects the markets to dive further to around september/october, before ANY good and longer rallies.

Chris - have a nice weekend

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