Well - as expected we moved further down and I havent really changed my view. What I am trying to look for is a POSITIVE divergence on smaller timeframes to see if we can get a bounce - but IF we get a bounce I think its a bounce we should short, cause we will go lower. Right now I am still shorting, wont dare to hold anything long right now as we are about to have the DEATH CROSS - MA(50)/MA(200) cross on daily chart. This cross should accelerate some sellings as we technically are entering a bear market. (as expected in may).
But I think we may be able to have some small bounces here and there - but ultimately I just think its better to stay short and be short over summer as I think we are going to 930-960 level where I'm going to take off my shorts and take profits. the 930's level is a 50% fibonacci retracement from the rally 2009 to the high 2010, so we might get down to that level as markets VERY precisely following fibonacci retracements, so watch for that. But I think we can reach that level over next 1-2 months with some small bounces and sideways actions - but lets see it will be very interesting. We could probably also backtest the neckline before moving further down.
Have a nice day
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