Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Market view




Perfect day yesterday , as I expected we got a relief rally with the dollar pulling back and the target was 1100 SPX. I pretty much NAILED that target and sold all my TNA from the 34's to 38's and got into TZA 34. Will add this one IF it moves lower, but for me it looks like we got out contra trend rally and next move down is comming. But take in mind that we have OPEX on friday and markets USUALLY moves up until OPEX, last time we had OPEX we sold off very hard on OPEX day friday, but I think the real melt down will come next week and I believe IF we get a crash that will begin near 27. august as GDP numbers comming out which I expect to be so weak and huge meltdown or hindenburg omen comming. Thats why I love to add more shorts IF we move any higher, we have a trendline resistance at 1107 , but for now looks like 1100 was the top. For this week expect choppy trading sessions over next days into friday if not the bias is to the downside from here. IF we trade above 1100 sell the strenght and buy some shorts imo, this economy is screwed and a big meltdown is comming.

Target to the downside is below 1000 in SPX so we have a lot downside to come in September imo. I'm long TZA cause I think small caps going down hard when markets going down, all the small companies over last 10 years came because the people were FED and spend a lot of money, but reality today is that people needs to save more and they do, so lots of small companies will go away in the future. And the big companys which is too big to fail is not too big to bail....FED is out of bullets. Kyle Bass interesting interview yesterday on CNBC , he predicted the housing crash and he said yesterday that he could not understand who dare to buy stocks at this time. What has changed since 2 years ago ? Really nothing other than its getting worse with a lot more debt, debt debt !


Have a nice day everyone !

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