Portugal asking for bailout now, with a euro rally yesterday - how sweet it sounds. Guess we need more countrys out there to ask for bailouts to make the euro rally higher ;-)...
Overall markets had a VERY good reversal day yesterday as we touched 1340 SPX early trading and then reversed down too red zone , until they tried to hold markets up again at the end of the day. Markets were up 0.2-0.3%...
Well today and tomorrow should be the days were there will be some ACTIVITY in the markets - cause it has really been a boring week ( either consolidation before breakout higher ) or topping formation before plunge.....
The ECB is going to hike rates by 0.25% which is expected - Portugal asking for bailout 1 day before ECB rate hike , somethings up ?? Do they want to raise the rates as a country in EU cant even handle the low rates now ?? And now they are going to RAISE rates ? Oh yeah - sure we have growth I forgot and we need to raise rates cause we have growth. That is NOT the reason , but only because of high inflation, so question is today - do they want to raise the rates as Portugal needs bailout ? I think euro will sell off if they just hold the rates as expected - but they need to signal higher rates in the future to make the euro rally higher.
Tomorrow we have a deadline of government shutdown in the US - and they are talking about a 4billion cut or so ? They cant agree on a little cut of 4Billion , when in reality they need to cut some TRILLIONS guys.... comepletley insane, 4 Billion is lower than 1 day in POMO action which is near 6-8 BILLIONS.
If you were sick and went to the doctor and the doctor said to you , I will give you a much higher dose , do you think you are healthy then ? (Like QE1, QE2) - if the economy is good , why are they spending more than DOUBLE the amount like last time , just to hold markets up ?
Okay enough about the real fundamentals - but Spain may be the next to get bailout and there is not enough money for EU to bail them out...
Not much to say , still looks like SPX backtesting the broken trendline , very overbought now and the volume is decreasing with bearish divergences on 30 min and 60 min chart - will it play out ? Thats what I think and I have a target of near MA(200) test at 1200.
China (FXI) and Brazil (EWZ) looks very bearish too
So overall I am still holding big shorts at 1333-1330 and thats my plan - if we take out SPX 1344 I am FORCED to take the loss , which is sad , but true - so if SPX making new highs I will take the loss and play the bubble up...
Have a nice day
it's all insane, heh?
ReplyDeletethe only I can say that makes sense is that the higher we go, the more ferocious the collapse
agnes I dont know about a collapse right now - I dont think so , but either way I am very bearish longer term as the countries will deffault and there is a good possibility with Obama and Democrats in US now, they will keep print until 2012 election. But the markets is always looking "forward" so may be before 2012 a crash. But a decent drop should occur very soon , lets see what happends today on ECB.
ReplyDeleteJust find it funny on every bad news in Eurozone the euro keeps rallying - I would really like to see more countries need bailout , cause HEY thats bullish , up we go (-:
My most bearish scenario is DOW 1000 by early 2013....if this is gonna happen, then we need to sell off ferociously already this
ReplyDeletethis means a potential low of around 500 for the S&P this year...
I am not saying this will happen, but considering the utter delusion we are in right now, it would not surprise me
agnes1938 said...
ReplyDeleteMy most bearish scenario is DOW 1000 by early 2013....if this is gonna happen, then we need to sell off ferociously already this
this means a potential low of around 500 for the S&P this year...
I am not saying this will happen, but considering the utter delusion we are in right now, it would not surprise me
April 7, 2011 9:16 AM
**********************************************
1000 on the DJIA ? No way !That will never happen now,no matter what. The FED will just shut the markets down for a week,a month,or however long it takes to get things settled down if we even get anywhere near the 2009 lows.It might even happen if we go below 10,000 on the DJIA again.Not good for us traders...but it is what it is.
if they shut down the markets, the banks will be bankrupt in a minute (no transactions anymore....)
ReplyDeleteI do expect a shutdown of the markets at some point, but only after the market has dropped way below the 2009 low...
agnes1938 said...
ReplyDeleteif they shut down the markets, the banks will be bankrupt in a minute (no transactions anymore....)
I do expect a shutdown of the markets at some point, but only after the market has dropped way below the 2009 low...
April 8, 2011 7:50 AM
************************************************
The FED shut down the market for a week after 9/11 in 2001,and banks stayed open.And that when the market was on an upswing.So they will do it Now granted..it went down after they reopened,but my point is...they can and will do it.-We have a "new" FED now, that is much more interactive in the markets than ever. As I say,not god for us traders,but the rules keep changing.