Friday, December 3, 2010

Market view




Well well , now we got more of a rally than I thought. I thought we would stop around 1200-1210 and then plunge back down, but either way I still think that the top for wave B is made. I believe that we should be starting our wave C down which should be a panic selling and ugly move down over the next 1-2 weeks.

Overall I have to view and what will determine which way I am going to play this is the PRICE/ACTION. IF we get some good selling with nice volume and pressure, that would indicate that wave C is about to start. If we just go slowly down with no volume to 1197-1200 area as I indicated, then its most likely a backtest of broken resistance and then we are heading higher to 1230-1250.

So how I am going to play it ?

I will play it to the downside, watch for this area 1197-1200 and if we close above here I would go long markets. Until then I would short, cause either way I think a pullback IS comming.......EVERY SINGLE TIME we have been so much extended this short term, we had a pullback over the next 1-2 days. I dont think this will be any different.

Take in mind that this end of wave B could be the backtest of the broken trendline we had some weeks back and this could be making a LOWER HIGH than previous top if we dont go higher.

Remember in right side my new setup with 30 min and 60min both indicating a red and down day today.

Overall I got bullish euro/usd, but I am going to get bearish EUR/USD again and BULLISH the dollar at 80. Today when I am writing USD is just above 80, where I think we will get a nice rally from again...

BUT I have an alert on GOLD and I think it looks VERY bearish and I am expecting a BIG move down in gold from here at 1394 currently when I am writing. I think the big move down in gold IS comming from here and it will be ugly .. very ugly for gold. I would short gold if I could and the chart has a nice HS pattern and beginning to go down on right shoulder here. So a massive move down in gold should be comming next I predict



Best of luck to all and good trading

3 comments:

  1. I hope you are right. But what news would trigger such a short term panic selling?

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  2. Dirk there is so many things which could make a panic as there has never been before imo

    1. PIIGS country and eurozone problems
    2. Taxes....
    3. Dollar strong
    4. Korea
    5. JPM Fraud
    6. Wikileaks
    7. Unknown things to come??
    8. Housing prices
    9. Unknown things we dont know yet??

    ReplyDelete
  3. Perma-bears have been delusional ignoring QEII money pump and chart breakout. Bad economy news will only add future additional QE potential.

    ReplyDelete